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The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, but this week’s meeting is packed with intrigue

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends the Federal Reserve’s Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 22, 2025.

Ken Cedeno | Reuters

Considering nothing is likely to happen when it comes to major policy decisions, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is packed with intrigue.

When the Federal Open Market Committee releases its interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon, the narrative is almost certain to look a lot like the June meeting, with little changed in the statement and officials again holding off on any cuts.

However, several fascinating subplots will be in play. Consider:

  • Two Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — are potential “no” votes on keeping the federal funds rate locked at 4.25%-4.5%. If so, it will be the first time multiple governors have dissented since late 1993. Both have advocated for a rate cut. Waller’s standing as a long-shot replacement for Chair Jerome Powell next year makes his vote even more significant.
  • This will be the first meeting since President Donald Trump‘s historic visit to the Fed’s construction site and the kerfuffle that has erupted over cost overruns there. Central bank officials have been using an aggressive public relations campaign to counter White House criticism, and the issue is sure to come up during Powell’s post-meeting news conference.
  • The Fed has plenty to ruminate over when it comes to the economy, including the possibility that Trump’s tariffs may not be having the inflationary impact that many economists feared. That makes delaying a rate cut harder to justify, with Trump’s demands for dramatic policy easing complicating the backdrop even more.

Ultimately, though, the committee is likely to stand pat, putting the distractions on the side and the decision over a cut off to September.

“They’re not going to get anything if they ease, other than they’ll look like they’re knuckling under to the president,” said Bill English, the Fed’s former head of monetary affairs and now a professor at the Yale School of Management. “So I think their best policy for sure is just to look at the data, make their best judgment, make their policy decision and explain it as well as they can.”

Arguments for a cut

Powell will have his hands full outlining the committee’s position considering the likely opposition coming from Waller and Bowman.

In the run-up to the meeting, both have argued for cutting, saying essentially that with the tariff pass-through to inflation not yet apparent and a labor market “on the edge” as Waller described it in a speech less than two weeks ago, it’s time for the Fed to ease.

“With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” Waller said in the speech titled “The Case for Cutting Now.”

Those comments likely will resonate with Trump, though a CNBC poll of market experts and economists showed just 14% believe Waller will get the nomination to replace Powell, whose term expires in May 2026. Leading contenders above Waller include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Governor Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director.

Trump has called on Powell to resign, even threatening to fire him before backing off, and blamed the central bank leader for the FOMC’s refusal to cut rates. The president has said the Fed should ease to help lower financing costs on the national debt and to unlock the housing market with its high mortgage rates.

No consensus for easing

However, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and no other members besides Waller and Bowman have shown an inclination to cut at this meeting. Some officials even have advocated for no cuts this year, according to minutes from the June meeting. Governor Adriana Kugler will not be present, lowering the committee vote to 11.

“The reason the Fed isn’t cutting is not because of Jay Powell,” former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on CNBC, using the chair’s nickname. “The reason the Fed isn’t [cutting] is … there’s not a consensus around the table that it’s time to cut, and there are 12 votes and he doesn’t get to decide on his own.”

“If there was a different Fed chair right now, I think they also would not cut in July,” he added. “So I think there’s more nuance here than maybe is being reflected in the public comments.”

With no update on the Summary of Economic Projections or the accompanying “dot plot” of individual members’ outlooks, investors will be left to pore through the statement and Powell’s remarks to the press for clues on what happens next.

There’s still “a strong base case” for a cut in September, but that could change depending on the data, said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management. The June dot plot still pointed to two cuts this year, but it also showed a strong division among officials.

“Although the Fed’s decision is unlikely to surprise, this meeting should still be very interesting,” Lafargue said.

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Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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