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The Fed will update its rate projections Wednesday. What to expect

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US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reacts as he speaks during a news conference at the end of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on Jan. 29, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials at this week’s meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates.

If market pricing is correct, there’s virtually no chance central bank policymakers budge from the current level of their key interest rate, targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.

However, they are also expected to drop clues about where things go from here against the uncertain backdrop of President Donald Trump‘s trade and fiscal policies. That could include anything from tweaks in projections for inflation and economic growth to how often, if at all, they expect to lower interest rates further.

“There’s no chance of a cut Wednesday, so all the other stuff becomes more important,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They’re basically going to say, ‘You know what, we are in no hurry at all now.'”

Indeed, that has been the prevailing message from Powell and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues. In a speech earlier this month to economists in New York, Powell insisted “there is no need to be in a hurry” as central bankers seek “greater clarity” on where the Trump administration is headed.

New outlook for GDP, inflation, unemployment

The public, then, will be left to pore through updates the Fed makes to its quarterly projections on interest rates, gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation. Based on recent data, the Fed could raise its 2025 outlook for inflation (in December, the outlook was for 2.5% in both core and headline) while lowering its GDP projection (from 2.1%). Powell will host his usual post-meeting news conference.

On the rate question, the Federal Open Market Committee will use its “dot plot” grid of individual members’ intentions.

There’s significant disagreement on what could happen there. The committee could maintain its December outlook for two cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.

Fed Chair Powell will keep his tone that the economy is in a good place at FOMC, says Paul McCulley

“I think it may be one or zero cuts this year, particularly if the tariffs stick,” North said. “I don’t think they’re going to try and bail out the economy by cutting rates, because they know that if they stoke inflation, they’re going to have to go back and start all over again.”

Economists worry the Trump tariffs could reignite inflation, particularly if the president gets more aggressive after the White House releases a global review of the tariff situation on April 2. If the Fed grows more concerned about tariff-fueled inflation, it could turn even more reluctant to cut.

Investors are right to be concerned about the direction the FOMC indicates, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.

“That worry is borne by the suspicion the Fed is not ‘in charge’ anymore, having relinquished control of macroeconomic policy to the Trump administration,” Wizman wrote. “Given the current uncertainty, and the recent increase in inflation expectations, the Fed may find it difficult to signal three more rate cuts, or even two more. It could push one rate cut into 2026, leaving only one cut in the median ‘dot’ for 2025.”

Markets still see two or three cuts

Should the Fed decide to stick with two cuts, it likely will be only “to avoid adding to recent market turbulence,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note.

Major stock market averages are hovering around correction territory, or 10% declines from highs.

In the past, under the idea of a “Fed put,” markets have come to expect the central bank to ease policy in response to market unrest. Traders don’t expect an initial rate reduction to happen until at least June, and are pricing in one additional quarter percentage point easing and about a 50-50 chance of a third move by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of fed funds futures pricing.

But that might even be too ambitious, Wizman said.

“In effect, markets appear to have gotten too dovish on the Fed, and instead of signaling its own confidence in its outlook, the Fed may issue signals of no-confidence, instead. In other words, the FOMC meeting may leave many questions unanswered, as will the press conference by Jay Powell,” he said, using Powell’s nickname.

The committee also could address its “quantitative tightening” program where it is allowing a set level of proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off the balance sheet each month. Markets widely expect the Fed to end the program later this year, and recent meetings have featured discussion about how best to handle the central bank’s $6.4 trillion portfolio of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

Market trend is still to the downside on the margin, says Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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