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The link between wealthy American migration and high income tax

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There’s been a migration of wealthy Americans between states to avoid high individual income taxes, new research shows.

The study, published by the American Economic Association and co-authored by economics and politics academics Traviss Cassidy, Mark Dincecco and Ugo Antonio Troiano, examines the effects of individual income tax on states’ fiscal capacity and taxpayer migration. It finds that middle- and high-earning households with the financial wherewithal to move between states do so when income taxes become too high.

The paper analyzes data on state-level tax policies over a span of 110 years (from 1900 to 2010). It finds that income tax-adopting states increased their revenue per capita from 12% to 17%. However, total revenue did not significantly change due to the migration of wealthy contributors to lower-tax jurisdictions post-World War II. 

Tax forms

Broadening the tax base has historically been thought of as the key to increasing state revenue, allowing governments to support strong economic development. The establishment of the income tax has been a major component of tax broadening in the U.S., but the extent to which it actually grows state governments’ revenue is debated. 

The paper finds that wealthy Americans tended to move out of state when income taxes were too high, but have remained when income tax increases were minimal. And while income tax does allow states to increase their fiscal capacity on a per capita basis, wealthy taxpayers’ ability to relocate acts as a partial check on this capacity. 

The paper concludes, “The return on fiscal capacity investments thus appears to be contingent on the elasticity of the tax base.” 

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Trump tax cut, debt limit plan advances amid tariff turmoil

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Senate Republicans took a major step toward enacting President Donald Trump’s tax cut agenda and increasing the U.S. debt ceiling, potentially injecting a small degree of certainty into financial markets roiled by the president’s tariff policies.

The Senate early Saturday morning passed the budget resolution by a 51-48 margin after an overnight marathon of votes on amendments. Two Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Rand Paul of Kentucky, joined all Democrats in opposing the budget resolution. 

The measure allows congressional Republicans to craft legislation to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for individuals and closely held businesses that expire at the end of 2025. Even so, spending cuts remain caught up in a lingering dispute between House and Senate GOP members.

It also permits for $1.5 trillion in new tax cuts over a decade, and calls for a $5 trillion increase to the federal borrowing limit to avert the Treasury Department hitting the debt ceiling this summer.  

The vote comes at a perilous moment for the economy after Trump unveiled tariffs on nearly every country this week, causing global stock markets to tumble and sparking fears of a worldwide recession.

Republicans have described the tax cuts — a proposed total of $5.3 trillion over 10 years in the Senate version and $4.5 trillion in the House’s — as the next phase of Trump’s two-part economic agenda after the tariffs. The president’s allies argue that a fresh round of levy reductions will boost markets and provide certainty for businesses to invest. However, it’s not clear if the scope of the tax package counter the tariff fears gripping investors.

Congressional Republicans say renewing the expiring portions of Trump’s first-term cuts are imperative to avert a tax hike on U.S. households next year.

“A typical family of four making $80,000 a year would end up sending an additional $1,700 to the government next year,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. 

The budget also calls for $150 billion in new funds for the military and $175 billion for immigration efforts, two top spending priorities for Trump, despite broader efforts to slash the federal workforce and budget.

Political posturing

Democrats said the GOP plan will skew tax benefits toward affluent households, at a time economists say lower-and-middle class individuals are poised to bear the brunt of the price hikes from tariffs on imported goods.

“This is the Republican agenda, plain and simple: billionaires win, American families lose,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York..

The budget resolution heads to the House next week where Speaker Mike Johnson will be faced with the challenge of wrestling the measure through his fractious group of Republicans, where he can only afford to lose a handful of votes.

“I look forward to working with House leadership to finish this crucial first step and unlock legislation that strengthens our economic and fiscal foundations,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was involved in developing the Senate plan, said in a statement.

Some fiscal hawks among House Republicans, including Kentucky’s Thomas Massie and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, have grumbled about the plan for not calling for enough spending cuts.

Texas Representative Chip Roy, a spending hawk and Freedom Caucus member, said he’d vote against the Senate budget if it were brought to the House floor. In contrast, the House version “establishes important guardrails to force Congress to pump the brakes on runaway spending,” he said on X.

The Senate budget resolution provides for at least $4 billion in spending reductions over a decade. That’s significantly lower than the $2 trillion target envisioned in an earlier House version.

Spending squabble

“The Senate response was unserious and disappointing, creating $5.8 trillion in new costs and a mere $4 billion in enforceable cuts, less than one day’s worth of borrowing by the federal government,” House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said Saturday in a statement. He said he’ll work to ensure the final package has large spending cuts.

Senate leaders drastically scaled back the spending cut parameters after several Republicans warned that widespread reductions would likely harm benefits for their constituents, including Medicaid health coverage for low-income households and those with disabilities.

If the House rejects the Senate budget, a new compromise would need to be worked out between the two chambers before they can begin crafting the tax legislation.

Republicans have a series of hard — and potentially divisive — choices to make to squeeze their long list of tax cut proposals into the $1.5 trillion ceiling they set for themselves.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo has said he has received more than 200 requests for tax cuts to include in the bill.

Atop the list are several campaign trail pledges from Trump, who’s called for eliminating taxes on tipped wages and overtime pay. The president has also said he wants to create a new deduction for car buyers and seniors. 

A group of House lawmakers have demanded an increase in the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction, and most Senate Republicans back a repeal of the estate tax. 

The budget also calls for using a gimmick to count the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — estimated to cost nearly $4 trillion — as $0 for official scoring purposes. 

This decision will have to get the approval of the Senate parliamentarian before the legislation goes for a final vote, a risky gambit that could leave the GOP rushing at the last-minute to scrounge for offsets for the tax cuts.

Republicans agree on a relatively narrow universe of spending cuts to include in the legislation, including reductions to food stamps, Pell Grants and renewable energy subsidies.  

The Trump administration is also weighing a handful of tax increases to offset the costs — a surprising development for a party that was once universally opposed to any levy hikes.

Among the measures under consideration are introducing a new income tax bracket for those earning $1 million or more, rolling back the corporate state and local tax deduction, and repealing the carried interest break used by the hedge fund and private equity industries. 

Lawmakers envision enacting the final tax package sometime between May and August. As long as legislation adheres to the rules detailed in the budget resolution, it can pass with just Republican votes.

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Saylor’s Strategy to register $5.9B loss after accounting change

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy said it will register an unrealized $5.9 billion loss in the first quarter after adopting an accounting change that requires valuing digital assets at market prices. 

Shares of the dot-com-era software maker turned leveraged Bitcoin proxy formerly known as MicroStrategy fell as much as 14% on Monday. Earlier, Bitcoin wiped out almost all of its gains since Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win in early November.

Strategy and fellow corporate buyers of Bitcoin are being made to recognize the unrealized changes that often produce big swings in earnings or, in the case of Strategy last quarter, losses. Strategy waited until the first quarter to adopt the accounting change that was approved last year. 

Prior to the accounting change, the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company has been classifying its Bitcoin holdings as intangible assets — similar to brand recognition or trademarks. That designation forced Strategy to permanently mark down the value of its holdings when the price of Bitcoin dropped. Gains could only be recognized when tokens are sold, which Saylor has vowed not to do, even saying his digital wallet keys should be burned when he dies.   

Part of the first-quarter loss will actually result from Saylor’s recent spending binge, which has produced roughly $1 billion of paper losses on the $7.79 billion the company spent on Bitcoin in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations. The company owned $41.8 billion of Bitcoin coming into the year, an amount that fell by nearly $5 billion in the first quarter with the 12% drop in the price of the tokens. That equates to about $6 billion of “mark-to-market” losses, according to Bloomberg calculations as of March 31, before taxes.

At the same time, the company’s retained earnings will whipsaw into positive territory, courtesy of a nearly $13 billion boost from the new accounting, according to Bloomberg calculations. 

Strategy became the first public company to buy Bitcoin as a capital allocation strategy in 2020, with co-founder and chairman Saylor saying the enterprise software firm needed to embrace the policy to survive. It grabbed the attention of Wall Street as the shares took off with speculators using it as a proxy for the digital currency. 

Saylor took advantage of the surging demand to sell more shares to purchase additional Bitcoin, eventually expanding to convertible debt and preferred shares offerings to fuel the buying spree. The stock is up more than 2,200% since the start of August 2020. 

Hedge funds have been driving some of the demand for the convertible debt, as they seek out Strategy for trades that incorporate buying the bonds and selling the shares short, essentially betting on the underlying stock’s volatility.   

With the price of Bitcoin faltering along with other risky assets this year, the meteoric appreciation in the value of Strategy’s shares has also slowed. And last week, Strategy’s shares got their only sell rating after boutique equity research firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. cut its view on the firm, saying the market for the securities used to fund the Bitcoin purchases is increasingly saturated.

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Georgia passes CPA licensing changes bill

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Legislation providing two pathways to a CPA license has unanimously passed both chambers in the Georgia General Assembly and is awaiting the signature of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp.

House Bill 148, known as the Public Accountancy Act of 2025, was backed by the Georgia Society of CPAs. It introduces two pathways to CPA licensure starting Jan. 1, 2026, and broadens practice privilege mobility. Candidates can now qualify with a master’s degree in accounting or taxation and one year of relevant experience, or with a bachelor’s degree in accounting and two years of pertinent experience. The two alternatives complement the existing pathway of a bachelor’s degree with 150 semester hours and one year of experience, reducing barriers and fostering a more inclusive profession. In addition, HB 148 provides practice privilege requirements, making it simpler for out-of-state CPAs to practice in Georgia to ensure that Georgia businesses have seamless access to top-tier accounting expertise, regardless of state boundaries.

“The new pathways to CPA licensure and expanded practice privilege mobility are essential steps toward addressing the growing demand for skilled accounting professionals,” said GSCPA CEO Boyd Search in a statement. By allowing greater access to licensure and enabling CPAs to move freely across state lines, Georgia is positioning itself as a leader in the profession, ensuring that we continue to attract top talent from both within and outside the state.” 

Kathryn Fletcher, Chair of GSCPA, added, “In today’s dynamic economy, it’s crucial that we evolve our licensing standards to meet the changing needs of both the profession and the businesses we serve. These added pathways and the broader practice mobility are key to maintaining Georgia’s reputation as a hub for accounting excellence and will help foster a more sustainable future for the profession.” 

Various state CPA societies are pushing for alternative paths to a CPA license to alleviate the shortage of accountants. In January, Ohio also passed CPA licensing changes and in February, Virginia introduced an alternative pathway as well. Other states such as Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina and Tennessee are also considering changes, while the American Institute of CPAs and the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy are proposing alternative paths to the CPA license nationwide.

HB 148’s unanimous passage came together after a collective effort by lawmakers, regulators, professionals, educators and GSCPA members. The bill’s sponsors and legislative champions included three CPAs in the Georgia assembly: Rep. John Carson, R–Marietta, David Wilkerson, D–Powder Springs, and Billy Hickman, R–Statesboro. 

“Expanding the pathways to the CPA license and broadening practice privilege mobility is vital to ensuring that Georgia remains a competitive and attractive place for accounting professionals,” Carson said in a statement. “By offering more flexible routes to licensure, we empower a range of candidates to enter and thrive in the CPA profession, which in turn strengthens our state’s economy and business landscape.”

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