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The September jobs report is finally coming out Thursday. What it may show

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Job seekers speak with recruiters during the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs data, albeit with a decidedly rear-window view.

Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, the release is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.

Though the report will be backward-looking, it at least will provide some fodder for investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials who have had to rely on a host of private alternative data during the record-long shutdown in Washington, D.C. It will be the first BLS jobs report since the August release on Sept. 5.

“My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little bit brighter outlook than is commonly assumed, but not much to brag about,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “The labor market is holding in there, just like the economy.”

Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Because the numbers are from September, they will provide only a little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape and could be disregarded by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently referred to the situation as “driving in the fog” and cautioned against looking at further interest rate cuts as guaranteed while officials look for direction.

While one month’s jobs report will help clear up some of the way, visibility will remain limited.

‘Pervasive uncertainty’

The BLS on Wednesday updated its release dates for the data points it produces.

The bureau will not release October’s jobs report separately, instead including it with the November report, which has been pushed to Dec. 16 from its original release date of Dec. 5. There will be no unemployment rate released for October due to household data that the BLS will not be able to collect. Similarly, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will see a combined September and October release on Dec. 9.

The BLS on Oct. 24 released September’s consumer price index report only because it is used as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.

“The economy is muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty,” Brusuelas said. “Because of the duration of the shutdown, I don’t think we’re going to get a clean reading until early February on where the labor market’s at.”

Nevertheless, other data, such as the private payrolls running tally from ADP along with layoff announcements from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and a host of other indicators are providing some clues on where the labor market stands.

In fact, Fed Governor Christopher Waller in a speech Monday rejected the notion that the Fed doesn’t have enough data to make decisions.

“Policymakers and forecasters are not ‘flying blind’ or ‘in a fog,'” Waller said in a speech advocating a December rate cut. “While it is always nice to have more data, as economists, we are skilled at using whatever available data there is to formulate forecasts.”

Judging by data revealed so far, Goldman Sachs holds an above-consensus view of 80,000 jobs created in September but sees a decline of 50,000 in October, due largely to the expiration of the federal government’s deferred resignation program from cuts associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

“While we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate, we estimate it likely would have increased, reflecting upward pressure from shutdown-related furloughs and increases in broader measures of labor market slack,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.

In addition to the September headline number, Thursday’s report also will include revisions for July and August. Both Brusuelas and the Goldman economists said they expect those numbers to come in higher than the previous counts.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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