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The U.S. job market is stagnant right now

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2 years ago

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Rudi_suardi | E+ | Getty Images

The U.S. job market has been stagnant of late, a dynamic that contains both good and bad news for U.S. workers.

On the one hand, businesses are holding on to their existing workforce, meaning employees are unlikely to lose their jobs, economists said. But it also may be hard for jobseekers to land a new gig as employers pull back on hiring, economists said.

It’s a “low-hire, low-fire environment,” Bank of America economists wrote in a research note Friday.

“The labor market is currently characterized by a lack of churn: soft hiring and low layoffs,” they said.

That news may be disappointing for many workers: About half, or 51%, of U.S. employees were seeking a new job as of Nov. 1, the highest share since 2015, according to a Gallup poll published Tuesday. Overall job satisfaction has dipped to a record low, it found.

The ‘great resignation’ became the ‘great stay’

By many metrics, the job market is strong for American workers.

The unemployment rate — which was 4.2% in November — is near historical lows dating to the late 1940s. The layoff rate in October was also at its lowest since the early 2000s, when record keeping began, and has hardly budged since 2021.

However, employer hiring in October was sluggish: The hiring rate was at its lowest since 2013. The average duration of unemployment ticked up to 23.7 weeks in November, from 19.5 weeks a year earlier.  

The current lack of dynamism in the job market represents whiplash for many workers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Work from home is here to stay, says Harvard's Ethan Bernstein

Workers quit their jobs at a torrid pace in 2021 and 2022, as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Job openings ballooned to record highs and businesses competed for labor by raising wages at the fastest clip in decades, incentivizing workers to leave their gigs for better opportunities.

This era, dubbed the “great resignation,” has been replaced by the “great stay,” Pollak said.

This is due to a variety of factors, labor economists said.

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Many businesses were scarred by their recent experience of holding onto workers amid fierce labor competition and have reacted by “labor hoarding,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the job site Indeed.

Employers have shifted their policies more toward retention and away from recruiting, Pollak said.

The labor market has also gradually cooled.

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively starting in 2022 to slow the economy and tame inflation, which applied the brakes on the job market. The central bank started cutting interest rates in September, as inflation declined significantly and the labor market flashed some warning signals.

A ‘diverging’ labor market

While strong in the aggregate, the job market is “diverging” for workers, Stahle said.

Overall job growth has been “robust” but the bulk of job gains are occurring in a handful of industries like health care, government, and leisure and hospitality, Stahle said.

Meanwhile, job growth in white-collar fields like software development, marketing, and media and communications “has been very, very slow,” he said. “Right now your experience with the labor market will depend on the type of job you’re doing,” he said.

Hiring may bounce back if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, as employers may be more inclined to invest more in their businesses if borrowing costs are lower, economists said.

In the meantime, “things are going to be a little more competitive than they were a couple years ago,” Stahle said.

Job seekers should be sure to align their resumes with the skills that employers list on job posts, especially since many businesses use “applicant tracking systems” to automatically screen applications, he said.

“People who really want out [of their job] may need to widen their search, expand their parameters, and get a bit uncomfortable and reskill,” Pollak said.

But those with jobs they really like “have unprecedented job security,” she said.

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$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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7 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Personal Finance

Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

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2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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