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This 79-year-old lost home to California wildfires, hopes to rebuild

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Remains of Karen Bagnard’s Altadena, California, house after it burned in the January 2025 Los Angeles-area wildfires.

Courtesy: Chelsea

On the night of Jan. 7, Karen Bagnard sat in her Altadena, California, house in the dark.

Forceful winds had caused her home to lose power, and she also had no running water, save for one bathroom.

“My daughter called and said, ‘Mom, do you realize there’s a fire?'” said Bagnard, who is 79 years old and legally blind. “I had no idea there was a fire.”

At that point, the evacuation zone for the Eaton Fire was far enough away for her to feel safe.

“I thought, ‘Oh, they’ll never get to my house,'” Bagnard said.

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About 30 minutes later, her daughter Chelsea Bagnard called back. With the fire spreading quickly, Bagnard’s home was now near the border of the evacuation zone.

After Bagnard’s grandson, Dalton Sargent, who is 32 and also lives in her home, came back from work, the two decided to leave for the night.

In the more than 50 years she lived in the house, Bagnard had been close to evacuating before but had never actually left.

“I thought, ‘Okay, we’ll evacuate this time, but we’ll be back,'” she said.

That was the last time she stepped foot in her home.

The next day, Bagnard’s daughter and grandson returned to the neighborhood to check on the home before authorities sealed off the area. What they found was a “smoldering pile of debris,” her daughter wrote on Facebook, with only larger appliances such as the refrigerator and stove recognizable.

It was Jan. 22 before Bagnard was able to return to her neighborhood to see the devastation for herself.

“They brought a chair for me, and I sat in the driveway, and what I could see was just the land,” Bagnard said of the surreal scene. “I started looking at it in terms of, ‘How would we rebuild?'”

Karen Bagnard, 79, sits in the ruins of her Altadena, California, home, after it burned in the Los Angeles-area wildfires of January 2025. “I hope to live long enough to see it rebuilt,” she said.

Courtesy: Chelsea Bagnard

Older adults especially vulnerable to natural disasters

The Los Angeles-area wildfires destroyed tens of thousands of acres, ruining homes and entire neighborhoods. Insured losses could climb to $50 billion, according to estimates from JP Morgan.

Additionally, an unknown number of residents have been left homeless.

For older individuals, the catastrophe comes at a vulnerable time in their lives, when relocating and coping with physically difficult conditions can be more challenging.

By 2034, we’ll have more people over 65 than under 18 in our country, according to Danielle Arigoni, an urban planning and community resilience expert and author of the book “Climate Resilience for an Aging Nation.”

Yet those demographics are not used as a lens for climate resilience planning in most cases, she said.

“In two decades, we have not seen any improvement in the fatality rate of older adults in these kinds of disasters,” Arigoni said. “When you see that kind of trend line, to me that just screams for a different approach.”

The LA-area wildfires forced some assisted living facilities to evacuate, and some burned down, according to Joyce Robertson, CEO and executive director of Foundation for Senior Services.

In the aftermath of the fire, the public charity is focusing on providing supplies, including wheelchairs, and is working with nursing and assisted living facilities to help fill gaps for services and resources.

“You can imagine the stress for all those seniors having to evacuate,” Robertson said.

For older individuals who live on their own, the risk is that they will not be able to leave their homes, said Carolyn Ross, co-executive director of the Village Movement California, a coalition of 50 neighborhood-based community organizations that provide community programming and expertise to help older residents age in place.

“In natural disasters, they are disproportionately affected, more likely to be the ones found in their homes because they couldn’t evacuate,” Ross said.

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman on LA fires: Rebuilding these homes will take a long time

The hardest hit of the Village Movement’s communities — Pasadena Village — had around 60 members displaced by the fires, and 19 lost their homes entirely, including Bagnard.

“It’s been heartbreaking,” said Katie Brandon, executive director at Pasadena Village.

“But it’s also been really beautiful to see the older adults really support each other, be there for each other, and see the communities of support that they’ve built over the last months and years really work for them,” Brandon said.

As Bagnard searched for a new residence, one of the Pasadena Village members stepped up to offer her a six-month temporary lease to live with her in her home, though the two women had not previously met.

Bagnard has been a valued member of the Pasadena Village for many years, according to Brandon, having hosted many events and programs at her “beautiful house, outside on her patio.”

As Bagnard regroups, the Pasadena Village is replacing the computer she lost with the accessibility features she needs due to her vision loss. The community organization is working with other affected area residents to help provide the equipment they need, such as air purifiers and computer printers. Where possible, it’s also encouraging older residents to continue to gather socially.

“The insurance companies seem to be pretty good at reacting and seeing what they can replace, but sometimes it’s quite a process,” Brandon said. “The sooner we can get our older adults the resources and equipment that they need, the better off they’ll be in this recovery period.”

Older victims face greater health, financial risks

Experts emphasize that older individuals may face a prolonged recovery.

In the aftermath of a disaster, there tends to be a lot of people helping, providing donations and other support, said Joan Casey, associate professor at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health.

Yet in the rebuilding period that follows, there’s often a lull, where volunteer efforts and donations dry up, she said.

Yet more than a year from now, those same disaster victims may still be displaced from their homes, she said.

“It’s that medium-term disaster period where we still want to check in on people,” Casey said.

They may be more susceptible to certain health and financial risks, particularly if they do not have a community safety net.

Nearly 80% of older adults have two or more chronic conditions, according to research from the National Council on Aging. If that includes respiratory or heart disease, the worsened air quality may be even more harmful to their health.

Older adults may also have paid off their homes, which means they may not be required to have homeowners’ insurance. Consequently, some may be completely uninsured, while others may be underinsured in an effort to keep their monthly expenses down, Arigoni said.

Scientific literature on how disasters affect older adults is “pretty mixed,” especially with regard to mental health, according to Casey. Some neurologists have found natural disasters may be a tipping point in cognitive function for older adults, she said.

Yet there’s also evidence that older individuals may be more resilient because they have developed better strategies to deal with stress over time, Casey said. They may have already experienced a disaster before, and therefore may be better prepared to handle another event.

‘I hope to live long enough to see it rebuilt’

Remains of Karen Bagnard’s Altadena, California, house after it burned in the January 2025 Los Angeles-area wildfires.

Courtesy: yesterday, my mom saw her home of over 50 years for the first time since it burned

Prior to losing her home in the wildfire, Bagnard, a professional visual artist, had recently gone through a big life adjustment as she dealt with her vision loss.

In early 2024, she held a show of her work at Pasadena Village, where she talked about coming to terms with blindness. Her favorite piece — of a sphere falling — played on darkness and light amid a color scheme of blue, teal and black, a symbol of her own journey.

“Knowing that you’re going blind is like a free fall into the darkness, and then at some point you realize that you bring the light with you, so it isn’t really dark,” Bagnard said. “You have a different kind of light; the light is inside.”

That piece was destroyed and is now among her home’s ashes, along with most of her other artwork.

For most of her life, Bagnard did pen-and-ink drawings with watercolor washes. Since the onset of her vision loss, she has transitioned to other methods, using decoupage and handmade papers as well as writing haikus.

The process of coping with her vision loss has helped her to keep the more recent loss of her home in perspective, she said, though she admits she still has moments of frustration.

To help rebuild, she has applied for a Small Business Administration loan, and her daughter started a GoFundMe account.

Other community organizations, in addition to Pasadena Village, have also stepped in to offer support.

A local nonprofit organization, Better Angels, has provided grant money to Bagnard and her grandson. And Journey House, a provider of foster care services, has promised to help Bagnard’s grandson, a former foster youth, who also lost everything in the fire.

Amid her home’s rubble, Bagnard said she has also seen signs of hope. A Danish plate with a mermaid, which Bagnard considers an art muse, survived the fire, as well as cement stairs she had painted with images of the four seasons.

She has told her two daughters and grandson it is up to them to decide what to do with the property they will eventually inherit.

“I’m going to be 80 next month, and I hope to live long enough to see it rebuilt,” Bagnard said.

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Social Security COLA projected to be lower in 2026. Tariffs may change that

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M Swiet Productions | Getty Images

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is projected to be the lowest increase that millions of beneficiaries have seen in recent years.

This could change, however, due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs. 

Recent estimates for the 2026 COLA, based latest government inflation data, place the adjustment to be around 2.2% to 2.3%, which are below the 2.5% increase that went into effect in 2025.

The COLA for 2026 may be 2.2%, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst. Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, estimates next year’s adjustment could be 2.3%.

If either estimate were to go into effect, the COLA for 2026 would be the lowest increase since 2021, when beneficiaries saw a 1.3% increase.

As the Covid pandemic prompted inflation to rise, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustments rose to four-decade highs. In 2022, the COLA was 5.9%, followed by 8.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.

The 2.5% COLA for 2025, while the lowest in recent years, is closer to the 2.6% average for the annual benefit bumps over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.

To be sure, the estimates for the 2026 COLA are indeed preliminary and subject to change, experts say.

The Social Security Administration determines the annual COLA based on third-quarter data for Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

New government inflation data released on Thursday shows the CPI-W has increased 2.2% over the past 12 months. As such, the 2.5% COLA is currently outpacing inflation.

Yet that may not last depending on whether the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs go into effect. Trump announced on Wednesday that tariff rates for many countries will be dropped to 10% for 90 days to allow more time for negotiations.

Tariffs may affect 2026 Social Security COLA

If the tariffs are implemented as planned, economists expect they will raise consumer prices, which may prompt a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 than currently projected.

“We could see the effect of inflation in the coming months, and it could very well be by the third quarter,” Johnson said.

If that happens, the 2026 COLA could go up to 2.5% or higher, she said.

Retirees are already struggling with higher costs for day-to-day items like eggs, according to the Senior Citizens League. Meanwhile, new tariff policies may keep food prices high and increase the costs of prescription drugs, medical equipment and auto insurance, according to the senior group.

Most seniors do not feel Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustments keep up with the economic realities of the inflation they personally experience, the Senior Citizens League’s polls have found, according to Alex Moore, a statistician at the senior group.

“Seniors generally feel that that the inflation they experience is higher than the inflation reported by the CPI-W,” Moore said.

When costs are poised to go up and the economic outlook is uncertain, seniors may be more likely to feel financial stress because their resources are more fixed and stabilized, he said.

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Tariffs, trade war inflation impact to be ‘pretty ugly’ by summer

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People shop at a grocery store in Manhattan on April 1, 2025, in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda and resulting trade war will translate to higher consumer prices by summer, economists said.

“I suspect by May — certainly by June, July — the inflation statistics will look pretty ugly,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Tariffs are a tax on imports, paid by U.S. businesses. Importers pass on at least some of those higher costs to consumers, economists said.

While economists debate whether tariffs will be a one-time price shock or something more persistent, there’s little argument consumers’ wallets will take a hit.

Consumers will lose $4,400 of purchasing power in the “short run,” according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis of tariff policy announced through Wednesday. (It doesn’t specify a timeframe.)

‘Darkly ironic’ tariff impact

Federal inflation data doesn’t yet show much tariff impact, economists said.

In fact, in a “darkly ironic” way, the specter of a global trade war may have had a “positive” impact on inflation in March, Zandi said. Oil prices have throttled back amid fears of a global recession (and a resulting dip in oil demand), a dynamic that has filtered through to lower energy prices, he said.

“I think it’ll take some time for the inflationary shock to work its way into the system,” said Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar. “At first, [inflation data] might look better than it will be eventually.”

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But consumers will start to see noticeably higher prices by May, if the president keeps tariff policy in place, said Thomas Ryan, an economist at Capital Economics.

“Price increases take time to filter through the supply chain (starting with producers, then retailers/wholesalers, and finally consumers),” Ryan wrote in an e-mail.

Capital Economics expects the consumer price index to peak around 4% in 2025, up from 2.4% in March. That peak would be roughly double what the Federal Reserve aims for over the long term.

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There’s also the possibility that some companies may try to front-run the impact of tariffs by raising prices now, in anticipation of higher costs, Ryan said.

It would be a gamble for companies to do that, though, Caldwell said.

“Any company that kind of sticks its neck out first and increases prices will probably be subject to political boycotts and unfavorable attention,” he said. “I think companies will move pretty slowly at first.”

Trump may change course

There’s ample uncertainty regarding the ultimate scope of President Trump’s tariff policy, however, economists said.

Trump on Wednesday backed down from imposing steep tariffs on dozens of trading partners. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Thursday that 15 countries had made trade deal offers.

For now, all U.S. trading partners still face a 10% universal tariff on imports. The exceptions — Canada, China and Mexico — face separate levies. Trump put a total 145% levy on goods from China, for example, which constitutes a “de facto embargo,” said Caldwell.

Trump has also imposed product-specific tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles and car parts.

There’s the possibility that prices for services like travel and entertainment could fall if other nations retaliate with their own trade restrictions or if there’s less foreign demand, Zandi said.

There was some evidence of that in March: “Steep” declines in hotel prices and airline fares in the March CPI data partly reflect the recent drop in tourist visits to the U.S., particularly from Canada, according to a Thursday note from Capital Economics.

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Student loan changes likely coming under Trump

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US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight on Air Force One, en route to Joint Base Andrews on April 6, 2025. 

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

The Trump administration recently announced that it would begin a process of overhauling the country’s $1.6 trillion federal student loan system.

The potential changes could impact how millions of borrowers repay their debt, and who qualifies for loan forgiveness.

“Not only will this rulemaking serve as an opportunity to identify and cut unnecessary red tape, but it will allow key stakeholders to offer suggestions to streamline and improve federal student aid programs,” said Acting Under Secretary James Bergeron in a statement on April 3.

Around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans.

Here are three changes likely to come out of the reforms, experts say.

1. SAVE plan won’t survive

Former President Joe Biden rolled out the SAVE plan in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.” Around 8 million borrowers signed up for the new income-driven repayment, or IDR, plan, the Biden administration said in 2024.

The plan has been in limbo since last year, and in February a U.S. appeals court blocked SAVE in February. The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the seven Republican-led states that filed a lawsuit against SAVE, arguing that Biden was trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court struck down his sweeping loan cancellation plan in June 2023.

SAVE came with two key provisions that the legal challenges targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

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The Trump administration is unlikely to continue to defend the plan in court, or to revise it in its regulations, experts say.

“It’s difficult to see any scenario where SAVE will survive,” said Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for federal student loan servicers.

For now, many borrowers who signed up for SAVE remain in an interest-free forbearance. That reprieve will likely end soon, forcing people to switch into another plan.

2. End to loan forgiveness under other plans

The Trump administration recently revised some of the U.S. Department of Education’s other income-driven repayment plans for federal student loan borrowers, saying that the changes were necessary to comply with the recent court order over SAVE.

Historically, at least, IDR plans limit borrowers’ monthly payments to a share of their discretionary income and cancel any remaining debt after a certain period, typically 20 years or 25 years. 

The IDR plans now open are: Income-Based Repayment, Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment, according a recent Education Department press release.

As a result of Trump administration’s revisions, two of those plans — PAYE and ICR — no longer conclude in automatic loan forgiveness after 20 or 25 years, Buchanan said, noting that the courts have questioned the legality of that relief along with SAVE.

The Trump administration, through its changes to the student loan system, is likely to make at least some of those temporary changes permanent, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Still, if a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the plan’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.

3. Narrowed eligibility for PSLF

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March that aims to limit eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

According to Trump’s executive order, borrowers employed by organizations that do work involving “illegal immigration, human smuggling, child trafficking, pervasive damage to public property and disruption of the public order” will “not be eligible for public service loan forgiveness.”

For now, the language in the president’s order was fairly vague. Nor were many details given in the latest announcement about reforming the student loan system, which said the Trump administration is looking for ways to “improve” PSLF.

As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump’s executive orders have targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

Changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time, at least up until the changes go into effect.

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