A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., April 28, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Periods of extreme volatility in the stock market may feel painful for investors — but such periods are generally followed by strong stock returns, if history is a guide, according to market analysts.
In that sense, many investors would be wise not to sell stocks — and should perhaps even buy more, analysts said.
The VIX index, also known at the Wall Street fear gauge, measures the market’s estimate of expected volatility in the S&P 500 stock index.
When the VIX has spiked to a level above 40 — indicating “significant” volatility — the S&P 500 has been up 30% a year later, on average, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysis of the market from January 1990 to April 16, 2025.
The odds of stock returns being positive 12 months later were also above 90% during these periods, the analysis found.
In other words, volatility creates a “potential opportunity,” Edward Lee, a Wells Fargo investment strategy analyst, wrote in the analysis on Monday.
“Concern is normal, but history has taught us that periods of higher volatility have historically led to higher returns,” Lee wrote.
So, why is there a greater probability of positive and higher stock returns relative to periods of lower volatility?
Volatility “tends to coincide with times of high drawdowns and investor panic, both of which lead to higher probabilities of investing success of the next 12 months,” Lee wrote in an e-mail.
The VIX reached about 53, among the top 1% closes for that index in history, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote last week.
But low expectations often lead to “relief rallies,” when people pile back into stocks because the initial news isn’t quite as bad as they thought, Cox wrote.
For example, since 1990, about half of the S&P 500’s 14 selloffs of 10% or more ended within a week of the VIX’s highest close, and three ended on the day of its highest close, Cox wrote.
Such selloffs are usually “V-shaped,” meaning there’s a sharp downturn and then a quick rebound, she said in an interview with CNBC.
However, things could be different this time around, she said.
“We’re [still] trying to figure out where the new center of gravity is” with trade policy, Cox said.
“The unexpected news part of the sell-off is probably past us, and if you are a long-term investor, now is probably the time to start buying,” Cox said. “But you can’t expect this to be the bottom of the sell-off. And history isn’t always gospel.”
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an event about the economy at the Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 25, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
The Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed the No Tax on Tips Act in a surprise vote, which could boost momentum for an idea floated by President Donald Trump during his 2024 campaign.
If enacted, the legislation would create a federal income tax deduction of up to $25,000 per year, with some limitations. The tax break applies to workers who typically receive cash tips reported to their employer for payroll tax withholdings, according to a summary of the bill.
To qualify for the deduction, there’s a $160,000 earnings limit for 2025. That limit would be indexed for inflation yearly.
Currently, workers who receive cash tips of $20 or more monthly must report those earnings to employers, according to the IRS. Cash tips can include funds received directly from customers, tip-sharing from other employees or tips paid via credit card.
Lawmaker support for a tax break on tip income
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both called for no tax on tips during appearances in Nevada.
The bill advanced by the House Ways and Means Committee last week also includes a no tax on tips provision. If enacted, workers could deduct all “qualified tips” from 2025 through 2028. Tips must be reported to qualify for the deduction. However, this could still change before the full House floor vote.
“Whether it passes free-standing or as part of the bigger bill, one way or another, no tax on tips is going to become law and give real relief to hard-working Americans,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas., said from the Senate floor on Tuesday.
Cruz introduced the bipartisan bill in January with Sens. Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada.
Who benefits from no tax on tips
In 2023, there were roughly 4 million U.S. workers in tipped occupations, representing 2.5% of all employment, according to estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale University.
“This is a very narrow subset of the workforce,” said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.
Tipped occupations include jobs in restaurants and hotels, as well as courier services like taxis, rideshares and food delivery services, he said.
What’s more, a good chunk of tipped workers are part-time employees, and they wouldn’t see a significant benefit from a tip exemption, he said. Many such workers already don’t pay federal income tax because their earnings fall under the standard deduction.
“For the lowest income tipped workers, it provides no marginal benefit” Muresianu said. “It would benefit moderate to middle income workers substantially.”
Policy ‘clearly violates some principle of fairness’
A no tax on tips policy could create several issues, Muresianu said.
For example, there could be the introduction of tips in new occupations, or a shift in compensation in already tipped occupations toward a greater reliance on tips. It’s also possible that income could be misclassified as tips to take advantage of the tax benefit, he said.
“It’s tough to model or project because tipping is a social behavior, not strictly an economic transaction,” Muresianu said.
From a general economic standpoint, it doesn’t make sense to treat one type of income earned in specific industries differently than another type of income, he said. Take, for example, a waitress and a retail cashier: Both earn $35,000, but the waitress makes $10,000 in tips, which would be tax exempt.
“Why does the cashier pay full income tax on her income but the waitress gets a very substantial tax exemption?” he said. “That clearly violates some principle of fairness.”
A visitor waves an American flag near the U.S. Capitol, as the U.S. House of Representatives considers U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 19, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
A tax package House Republicans may pass as soon as this week would kill a slew of consumer tax breaks tied to clean energy, as currently drafted. If it becomes law, households interested in the tax breaks may have to rush to claim them this year, experts said.
The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments to combat climate change, created or enhanced those tax breaks.
Most would be terminated after 2025, about seven years earlier than under current law.
“Based on the existing proposed language, if you’ve been considering an EV or planning to get one, now is the time to do it,” Alexia Melendez Martineau, senior policy manager at Plug In America, wrote in an e-mail.
Termination of EV tax credits
Halfpoint Images | Moment | Getty Images
Consumers who buy a new EV can claim a tax break worth up to $7,500. One for used EVs is worth up to $4,000. Car dealers can also pass along a $7,500 credit to consumers who lease an electric vehicle.
The House tax proposal would terminate these tax credits after 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act made them available through 2032.
A “special rule” would keep the $7,500 credit in place for some new EVs for an additional year, through 2026. However, it would only be available for new vehicles from automakers that haven’t yet sold 200,000 EVs. That would disqualify EVs from companies like General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM).
About 7.5% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025 were EVs, an increase from 7% a year earlier, according to Cox Automotive. Tax credits for EVs have been available in some form since 2008, when George W. Bush approved them.
The Inflation Reduction Act made it easier for consumers to access the EV credit, by allowing dealers to issue the tax break to consumers upfront at the point of sale instead of waiting until tax season. Consumers who buy an EV in the near term would be wise to pick this option, experts said.
“We recommend taking the upfront rebate at the dealership, as it reduces the price you pay now and shifts liability to the dealer to manage getting the credit from the IRS,” Martineau said.
Axing home efficiency tax credits
Owngarden | Moment | Getty Images
House Republicans also aim to axe various tax breaks tied to making existing homes more energy-efficient.
These breaks defray the cost of projects like installing insulation, solar panels, heat pumps, and installing energy-efficient windows and doors, for example.
One — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project. Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.
Another — the residential clean energy credit, or the 25D credit — is also worth 30% of qualifying project costs. It doesn’t have an annual or lifetime dollar, except for certain limits on fuel cells, according to the IRS.
They are currently available through 2032. (The 25D credit phases down to 26% for installations in 2033 and 22% for those in 2034.)
Both tax credits would be repealed after 2025 under the House bill.
The 25C and 25D credits have been available in some form since 1978 and 2005, respectively, according to economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.
More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed one of the credits in 2023, receiving more than $8 billion, according to the Treasury Department.
Experts recommend that consumers considering a home-efficiency project have it completed by year’s end to be able to claim a tax credit.
“If a homeowner was looking to take advantage of the 25C tax credit, under what is being proposed [by the House] they’d need to ensure their system was put in service this year,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.
The House tax bill may change
Republicans are eyeing the climate tax breaks as a way to raise money for a sprawling package that also extends measures from President Trump’s 2017 tax law and cuts taxes on overtime and tips, for example.
The House tax plan’s repeal or modification of clean energy credits — including those for EVs and home efficiency — would raise $707 billion over a decade, according to an analysis published Monday by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
As drafted, the overall House bill would raise the U.S. deficit by a net $3.3 trillion over a decade, after accounting for spending cuts, Penn Wharton said.
The Senate also needs to pass the measure before it heads to the president’s desk.
“Republicans are far from united, with deficit hawks pushing for greater deficit reduction, centrists objecting to steep welfare cuts and blue-state Republicans fighting for bigger State and Local Tax (SALT) exemptions,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
UNITED STATES – MARCH 31: Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is seen during the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology hearing titled Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, March 31, 2022.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Senate lawmakers pressed President Donald Trump‘s pick for IRS Commissioner, former Missouri Congressman Billy Long, about his opinions on presidential power over the agency, use of taxpayer data and his ties to dubious tax credits.
Long, who worked as an auctioneer before serving six terms in the House of Representatives, answered Senate Finance Committee queries during a confirmation hearing Tuesday.
One of the key themes from Democrats was Trump’s power over the agency, and Long told the committee, “the IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who provided her questions to Long in advance, asked whether Trump could legally end Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. If permitted, the move could have broad implications for the President’s power over the agency, she argued.
However, Long didn’t answer the question directly.
“I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start [an] audit for political reasons,” he said.
Ties to dubious tax credits
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., scrutinized Long’s online promotion of the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit worth thousands per eligible employee. The tax break sparked a cottage industry of scrupulous companies pushing the tax break to small businesses that didn’t qualify.
“I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long said. “I said virtually everyone qualifies.”
Senatorsalso asked about Long’s referral income from companies pushing so-called “tribal tax credits,” which the IRS has told Democratic lawmakers don’t exist.
“I did not have any perception whatsoever that these did not exist,” Long told the committee.
Senate Democrats also raised questions about donations people connected to those credits made to Long’s dormant Senate campaign, after Trump announced his nomination to head the IRS.
Direct File ‘one of the hottest topics’
While Senate Democrats grilled Long on his record, Republicans focused on questions about taxpayer service. Several Republican lawmakers voiced support for Long, including the committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.
If confirmed by the Senate, Long could mean a shift for the agency, which previously embarked on a multibillion-dollar revamp, including upgrades to customer service, technology and a free filing program, known as Direct File.
When asked about the future of Direct File, Long said he planned to promptly examine the program, describing it as “one of the hottest topics at the IRS.”
‘An unconventional pick’
Since former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel’s resignation in January, there have been three other leaders for the agency. If confirmed, Long would serve as IRS Commissioner for the remainder of the term through Nov. 12, 2027. The date for the vote isn’t yet confirmed.
Mark Everson, who served as IRS commissioner from 2003 to 2007, described Long as “an unconventional pick,” compared with the experience profiles of previous IRS leaders.
But Long’s years in Congress will provide “credibility up on the Hill with the people who matter, which will be important,” Everson, who is currently vice chairman at Alliant, a management consulting company, previously told CNBC.
Long may be in a “better position than others to argue for the appropriate independence of the agency,” he said.