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This is what typically happens to stocks after periods of high volatility

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A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., April 28, 2025.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Periods of extreme volatility in the stock market may feel painful for investors — but such periods are generally followed by strong stock returns, if history is a guide, according to market analysts.

In that sense, many investors would be wise not to sell stocks — and should perhaps even buy more, analysts said.

The VIX index, also known at the Wall Street fear gauge, measures the market’s estimate of expected volatility in the S&P 500 stock index.

When the VIX has spiked to a level above 40 — indicating “significant” volatility — the S&P 500 has been up 30% a year later, on average, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysis of the market from January 1990 to April 16, 2025.

The odds of stock returns being positive 12 months later were also above 90% during these periods, the analysis found.

Investors should use volatility to their advantage, says Defiance ETFs CEO Sylvia Jablonski

In other words, volatility creates a “potential opportunity,” Edward Lee, a Wells Fargo investment strategy analyst, wrote in the analysis on Monday.

“Concern is normal, but history has taught us that periods of higher volatility have historically led to higher returns,” Lee wrote.

So, why is there a greater probability of positive and higher stock returns relative to periods of lower volatility?

Volatility “tends to coincide with times of high drawdowns and investor panic, both of which lead to higher probabilities of investing success of the next 12 months,” Lee wrote in an e-mail.

Stock volatility spikes on Trump tariff news

Stock volatility spiked in early April after President Donald Trump announced unexpectedly high country-specific tariffs, and the S&P 500 sold off almost 11% in two days.

The VIX reached about 53, among the top 1% closes for that index in history, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote last week.

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But low expectations often lead to “relief rallies,” when people pile back into stocks because the initial news isn’t quite as bad as they thought, Cox wrote.

For example, since 1990, about half of the S&P 500’s 14 selloffs of 10% or more ended within a week of the VIX’s highest close, and three ended on the day of its highest close, Cox wrote.

Such selloffs are usually “V-shaped,” meaning there’s a sharp downturn and then a quick rebound, she said in an interview with CNBC.

However, things could be different this time around, she said.

“We’re [still] trying to figure out where the new center of gravity is” with trade policy, Cox said.

“The unexpected news part of the sell-off is probably past us, and if you are a long-term investor, now is probably the time to start buying,” Cox said. “But you can’t expect this to be the bottom of the sell-off. And history isn’t always gospel.”

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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