Connect with us

Economics

This week’s critical inflation report comes with doubts about the data

Published

on

Customers check out at a supermarket on August 12, 2025 in New York City.

Liao Pan | China News Service | Getty Images

The September consumer price index report coming out Friday will command full attention from financial markets, even as some investors will view the data with a skeptical eye.

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics already under scrutiny this year for its broad menu of data releases, the government shutdown gripping Washington, D.C. will only raise concerns from parts of Wall Street about whether the inflation reading will present a full picture.

“Skeptics like me are going to be focused on how clean is this data,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “What were the accommodations made for the lack of full personnel staff showing up? What adjustments were made before the data got reported?”

Indeed, the BLS this year has faced a host of questions over its data collection methods. President Donald Trump in August, furious over huge downward revisions in nonfarm payrolls data, sacked former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

There’s a lot of 'price sensitivity' among consumers, says OpenBrand’s Ralph McLaughlin

Though still considered part of the “gold standard” U.S. economic data collection apparatus, the BLS has also been criticized for its decidedly analog approach, which includes in-person visits, phone calls and written response forms.

Now, the agency faces the added burden of staffing cuts — even before the shutdown — and has eliminated several cities from its collection efforts. Now, it is putting together a key inflation report with most of the government closed and risks that sample data could be incomplete.

For those reasons, Khanduja thinks investors should be careful with how much emphasis they place on the CPI reading.

“The efficacy and the cleanliness of data — there will definitely be a little bit of a skepticism had from my end, and I’m thinking the market will do the same,” he said.

Muted expectations

Even with the questions over the data, economists aren’t looking for anything dramatic from the actual numbers.

The Dow Jones consensus has the CPI report showing 3.1% annual inflation levels on both the headline, or all-items, gauge as well as the core, which excludes food and energy. Economists see headline rising 0.4% and 0.3% for core, right in line with the August gains.

What gives this report an even higher profile is that all other data collections and releases have been suspended during the shutdown. The reason the Labor Department called back BLS staffers is because the CPI report is used to index Social Security cost of living adjustments.

So outside of this, there will be no other releases, leaving investors as well as Federal Reserve policymakers flying blind on data. That in itself presents a bevy of problems and another headache for agencies like the BLS.

“As the shutdown appears likely to last into November, it is not clear how the BLS will deal with an unprecedented lack of real-time collections,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark said in a note. “November data collections are also increasingly likely to be affected. We will be watching for any possible release of guidance on October CPI collections with Friday’s September report.”

In the meantime, the Fed will hold a meeting next week, with markets widely expecting a quarter percentage point reduction in the overnight borrowing rate, likely to be followed by another in December. Fed funds currently stand at 4.00% to 4.25%.

However, there’s considerable uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 and beyond. Trump wants rates aggressively lower, and he’s likely to nominate a candidate next year to replace Chair Jerome Powell with that philosophy.

With a lack of data certainty, though, formulating policy will be difficult.

“I don’t think we’re going to learn a whole lot from this [CPI] data that we’re not seeing at the moment,” Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson said Tuesday on CNBC. “I think it will give the Fed cover to do what I think they need to do, which is cut rates in a more meaningful way. To me, that [is] the risk, that we don’t get the data that allows the Fed to cut more meaningfully.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

Published

on

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

Published

on

Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

Continue Reading

Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

Published

on

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

Continue Reading

Trending