One of the pillars of behavioral economics is the so-called prospect theory, the idea that the pain of a loss is far greater than the expectation of a gain. That insight, developed by Daniel Kahneman , winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, was very much in evidence on Thursday as the S & P 500 dropped 100 points in the final two hours and thirty minutes of trading. On Thursday, President Joe Biden spoke with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and more protection for aid workers. News reports that Israel was preparing for possible retaliation from Iran also surfaced. Bond prices rose, yields declined, and oil rallied . Later in the day, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that if inflation continues to move sideways, then he wondered whether the Fed should cut rates at all this year. Despite Thursday’s declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week’s record highs. The surprise isn’t that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. It’s that it’s been so steady The S & P 500 has been on an upward path for a remarkable five straight months, largely because earnings expectations for the first quarter and this year have been very stable. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. The decline is not surprising given that estimates usually start high at the beginning of the quarter, and fall somewhat at the very end of the quarter. Reported earnings then typically beat the lower analyst estimates, usually by 3% to 6%. John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, confirmed that analysts have made smaller cuts than average to first-quarter estimates. What would cause a more serious drop in stocks? Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not “What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?” Everyone should expect that, given the gains. Rather, we should ask, “What would cause a bigger decline of 10% or more?” To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly. What would cause a significant drop in earnings? It would typically be some combination of factors: 1) an expectation of a notable decline in the economy, particularly in jobs, 2) a notable and sustainable spike in interest rates, and 3) some kind of unexpected exogenous shock (for example: the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, Covid or war). The first two are not happening, at least not yet. Job growth remains strong — we will see how the March payrolls turn out. Further, there is no sustained spike in rates — for the time being. An exogenous shock? Reports that Israel was preparing for possible retaliation from Iran seemed to take the markets by surprise Thursday. What about the current bugaboo, so-called “sticky inflation?” Unfulfilled expectations of rate cuts may take some of the air out of the market, but it seems unlikely that the market would drop 10% just on that alone. Not without a significant deterioration in the economy. A 10% drop in the market is more common than you think If you think a 10% drop in the market is unlikely or would be a catastrophe, neither would be the case. Market declines of 10% or more are very common. It turns out, investors worry a lot about economic weakness or exogenous shocks and how they might affect earnings. A 2022 study from Charles Schwab looked at stock market declines over from 2002 to 2021. The analysis found that a decline of at least 10% occurred in 10 out of 20 years, or 50% of the time, with an average pullback of 15%. “Despite these pullbacks, however, stocks rose in most years, with positive returns in all but 3 years and an average gain of approximately 7%,” the report said. So buckle up. People who think notable declines are uncommon suffer from recency bias: Because the market has gone almost straight up for the past 18 months, they think that is the natural direction for stocks for the foreseeable future. They would be mistaken.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sounded the alarm on the spread of protectionist policies around the world, saying they will hinder global trade and weaken the economy. “Today, many countries have twin, inverted economies: one where wealth builds on wealth; another where hardship builds on hardship,” Fink said in his annual chairman’s letter to investors. “The divide has reshaped our politics, our policies, even our sense of what’s possible. Protectionism has returned with force.” Fink’s widely-read letter came before President Donald Trump’s planned imposition Wednesday of reciprocal tariffs on “all countries.” The White House has already slapped punitive tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China. Trump uses tariffs to shield the U.S. from what he calls unfair global competition, but concerns about a trade war are unsettling markets and fanning fears of at least a slowdown in growth, if not an outright recession. “I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader — nearly every person — I talk to: They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory. I understand why,” Fink said. “But we have lived through moments like this before. And somehow, in the long run, we figure things out.” Fink said the current backdrop is supporting what he believes to be the fastest-growing areas of private markets: infrastructure and private credit. Blackrock, the world’s largest money manager with more than $11 trillion in assets, made two big acquisitions last year in a push to expand in private credit and alternative investments. In December, it agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in stock as part of an expansion into private credit. BlackRock also acquired Global Infrastructure Partners , an infrastructure investor, for $12.5 billion last year. “Governments can’t fund infrastructure through deficits. The deficits can’t get much higher. Instead, they’ll turn to private investors,” Fink said. “Meanwhile, companies won’t rely solely on banks for credit. Bank lending is constrained. Instead, businesses will go to the markets.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Tesla – The electric vehicle maker tumbled more than 6% after Stifel cut its price target on the stock. The firm said that a slower-than-expected rollout of Telsa’s new Model Y and recent protests could weigh on sales in the near term. Auto stocks – Shares of automakers pulled back as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported cars are set to take effect this week. The president said in an interview with NBC News over the weekend that he ” couldn’t care less ” if automakers increased prices as a result of the tariffs. On Monday, shares of Stellantis shed more than 3%, while General Motors and Ford slid more than 2% and 1%, respectively. CoreWeave – Shares of the Nvidia-backed cloud provider fell nearly 5% after closing flat in its Nasdaq debut on Friday. Nvidia shares also dropped more than 4% after CoreWeave’s disappointing debut . The artificial intelligence chip darling has fallen more than 18% in 2025. Mr Cooper – The mortgage firm saw shares soaring 27% in premarket trading after fintech platform Rocket Companies announced a definitive agreement to acquire Mr Cooper in an all-stock transaction for $9.4 billion in equity value. Rocket shares were down 4%. Crypto stocks – Stocks whose performance is tied to the price of bitcoin fell in premarket trading as the flagship cryptocurrency took another leg down over the weekend. Exchanges Coinbase and Robinhood fell 4% and 7%, respectively. Bitcoin proxy Strategy , formerly known as MicroStrategy, lost 4%. LPL Financial – Shares tumbled nearly 6% after LPL announced a definitive purchase agreement for Commonwealth Financial Network. LPL will acquire Commonwealth for around $2.7 billion in cash, with the deal expected to close in the second half of this year. Palantir – The defense tech stock slid 7% in premarket trading, putting it on track for its fifth-straight losing session. Palantir’s shares fell more than 5% last week. Hut 8 – Shares advanced more than 1% after the bitcoin miner announced the launch of American Bitcoin Corp, the result of a merger between Hut 8 and American Data Centers, a company formed by a group of investors that include Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. The new subsidiary, in which the Trumps retain a 20% stake, will focus on industrial-scale bitcoin mining and strategic bitcoin reserve development. Amazon – The megacap technology stock fell more than 2%, extending its more than 4% loss from the previous session. The stock closed out last week with a nearly 2% decline, marking its eighth consecutive week in the red. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Yun Li and Tanaya Macheel contributed reporting.
Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images
LONDON — After 20 years in the role as Klarna’s CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski is about to face his toughest test yet as the financial technology firm prepares for its blockbuster debut in New York.
Siemiatkowski, 43, co-founded Klarna in 2005 with fellow Swedish entrepreneurs Niklas Adalberth and Victor Jacobsson with the aim of taking on traditional banks and credit card firms with a more user-friendly online payments experience.
Today, Klarna is synonymous with “buy now, pay later” — a method of payment that allows people to buy things and either defer payment until the end of the month or pay off their purchases over a series of equal, interest-free monthly installments.
But while Siemiatkowski has grown Klarna into a fintech powerhouse, his entrepreneurial journey hasn’t been without its challenges — from facing rising competition from rivals such as PayPal, Affirm and Block‘s Afterpay, to an 85% valuation plunge.
Nevertheless, Siemiatkowski hasn’t taken those challenges lying down and the outspoken co-founder isn’t shy to challenge criticisms in the run up to an IPO that could value it at $15 billion.
‘Crazy enough’
In October 2024, CNBC met with Siamiatkowski during a visit the Swedish entrepreneur made to London. For a businessman who’s faced a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs over his two-year CEO tenure, Klarna’s chief has a calm air to him.
“Independently of all the cycles and everything we’ve gone through with the company, at any point in time I ask myself, do I still think that Klarna can become the next Google in size, that we can become a hundreds of billions dollar market company, or a trillion dollars,” Siemiatkowski told CNBC. “I still am crazy enough to think that’s achievable.”
But the firm has attempted to rebuild that eroded value in the years that have followed.
Klarna makes money predominantly from fees it charges merchants for providing its payment services, in addition to income from interest-bearing financing plans and advertising revenue.
Financials disclosed in its IPO filing show that Klarna reported revenue of $2.8 billion last year, up 24% year-over-year, and a net profit of $21 million — up from a net loss of $244 million in 2023.
Bullish on AI
After the launch of OpenAI’s generative AI ChatGPT in November 2022, Siemiatkowski quickly pivoted Klarna’s focus to embracing the technology, and especially in a way that could slash costs and enhance the firm’s profitability.
However, Siemiatkowski’s strategy and his comments on AI have also attracted controversy.
Klarna’s CEO then said in August that his company was able to reduce its overall workforce to 3,800 from 5,000 thanks in part to its application of AI in areas such as marketing and customer service.
“By simply not hiring … the company is kind of becoming smaller and smaller,” he told Reuters news agency, adding that jobs were disappearing due to attrition rather than layoffs.
Asked by CNBC about his views on AI and the upset they have caused, Siemiatkowski suggested he was “done apologizing,” echoing comments from Mark Zuckerberg about the Meta CEO’s “20-year mistake” of taking responsibility for issues for which he believed his company wasn’t to blame.
Doubling down, Siemiatkowski added that AI “already today can do a lot of the jobs that people do — but I don’t want to be one of the tech leaders that stands on a stage and says, ‘Don’t worry about it, there’s going to be new jobs,’ because I don’t know what those new jobs are.”
“I just want to be transparent and honest with what I think is happening, and I’d rather be open about that, because I know what these people, the tech leaders are saying when they’re not on public stages, and they’re not saying the exact same things,” he told CNBC in October.
An outspoken CEO
Siemiatkowski is no stranger to defending his company in response to criticisms, especially when challenged over Klarna’s business model of offering short-term financing for all kinds of things from clothing to online takeout.
One X user posted a meme showing personal finance pundit Dave Ramsey with the caption, “what do you mean you have $11k in ‘doordash debt’.”
Siemiatkowski took to X to defend the move, saying that Klarna “offers many payment methods” including the ability to pay in full instantly or defer payment until the end of the month in addition to monthly installments.
“DoorDash offers many products beyond food!” Klarna’s boss said on X in response to the criticisms. “I know we are most famous for pay in 4. But you can use a credit card at DoorDash as well.”
As Klarna approaches its stock market debut, investors will likely be scrutinizing his track record and whether he’s still the right person to lead the company longer term.
Lena Hackelöer, CEO of Stockholm-based fintech startup Brite Payments, is someone who’s worked under Siemiatkowski’s leadership, having worked for the company for seven years between 2010 and 2017 in various marketing functions.
She expressed admiration for the Klarna co-founder — and pushed back on suggestions that leadership mismanaged the business during the pandemic era.
“I never thought that they had mismanaged, which is somehow how it was reported,” Hackelöer told CNBC in a November interview. “I think that they were just very much focusing on growth — because that was the direction that investors were giving.”
Rollercoaster ride
Siemiatkowski admits the journey of building Klarna hasn’t always been rosy.
Asked about the biggest challenge he’s ever faced as CEO, Siemiatkowski said that, for him, laying off 10% of Klarna’s workforce in 2022 was the toughest thing he’s ever had to do.
“That was very difficult because I didn’t predict that investor sentiment would shift that fast and people would go from valuing companies like ours so high and then to something so low,” he said.
“That’s obviously very difficult because, then you realize like, ‘OK, s—, I’m going to have to make a change. It’s not going to be sustainable to continue, and I need to protect the consumers, who are stakeholders in the company, the employees, the investors — I need to [do] what’s right for all of my constituents,” Siemiatkowski continued.
Klarna is synonymous with the “buy now, pay later” trend of making a purchase and deferring payment until the end of the month or paying over interest-free monthly installments.
Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Images
“But unfortunately, it’s going to affect the smaller group, which happened to be about 10% of our employees.”
Like other tech firms, Klarna grew significantly over the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, the firm grew its gross merchandise volume or the total value of all sales processed through its platform, by 46% year-over-year, to $53 billion.
I think anyone who is a little bit sane, that’s not something you take light hearted, right? It’s a tough decision. It makes you cry. I’ve cried.
Sebastian Siemiatkowski
CEO, Klarna
The company also onboarded hundreds of new employees to capitalize and expand on the opportunity it saw from government lockdowns’ impact on consumer behavior and the broader acceleration of e-commerce adoption at that time.
“I think anyone who is a little bit sane, that’s not something you take lighthearted, right?” Klarna’s CEO said, referring to the layoffs. “It’s a tough decision. It makes you cry. I’ve cried.”
However, Siemiatkowski stood by his decision to lay off workers: “I felt like I had an obligation to my constituents, everyone, all of these stakeholders, the company, and I think it was a necessary decision at that point in time.”
The road to IPO
Now, Klarna’s CEO faces his biggest test yet — taking the business he co-founded two decades ago public.
“IPOs are risky for companies as share prices can fluctuate quickly,” Nalin Patel, director of EMEA private capital research at PitchBook, told CNBC via email. “They can be costly and lengthy to arrange with investment banks too.”
If it succeeds, the outcome could catapult the net worth of Siemiatkowski and other shareholders including Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, Mubadala Investment Company, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.
Sequoia is Klarna’s single-largest shareholder with a 22% stake. Siemiatkowski is the second-largest, owning 7% of the business.
A positive IPO outcome would also lift the value of Klarna employees’ stakes, and potentially boost morale after a turbulent few years for the company.
“It’s a balance between finding a fair value for existing investors looking to cash out and new investors seeking a stake in Klarna at a fair price. Overvaluing the company could lead to its valuation falling in the future. While undervaluing it may mean money has been left on the table for those exiting,” Patel said.