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Tipped workers aren’t holding their breath for Trump and Harris’ proposals

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A craps table at a Las Vegas casino

David Becker/Photographer: David Becker/Getty

From the valets parking cars to the dealers at the blackjack tables to the bartenders at the city’s many bars, Las Vegas relies on people working for tips.

“Las Vegas was built on tips,” said James Reza, a city native who owns two high-end beauty salons in town.

Around 17% of workers in Nevada — the highest concentration in the country — make their living through tipped work, according to the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. Nationwide, tipped workers only account for about 2.5% of all workers, according to Yale’s Budget Lab.

To boost the incomes of these workers and win over voters in the crucial swing state where union power still holds weight, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both vowed to end taxes on tips.

Interviews with dozens of bartenders, rideshare drivers, servers, and small business owners in Las Vegas reveal the proposal, a centerpiece of national policy discussions, is certainly popular. Yet Nevadans are also clear-eyed about the candidates’ electoral intentions and befuddled by how this new system would actually work.

“I don’t know how much it would benefit them if it actually happens,” Reza said, referring to service workers.

Lawmakers of both parties, while quick to embrace the idea coming from the top of their presidential tickets, admit they haven’t nailed down exactly what taxes will be exempted from tips and who would still pay.

“For me, the devil will be in the details of all of this,” said Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nevada, whose district includes parts of Las Vegas.

Harris announced her intention to push for the tax benefit at a rally last week at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Meanwhile, after igniting the discussion with a “no tax on tips” promise in June, Trump is returning to Las Vegas Friday to reinforce his pitch to workers.

“It would be amazing” if tips became tax-exempt, said Daniel Cervantes, a bartender at CraftHaus Brewery in Las Vegas’ Arts District. “It would help me afford a better home, a place closer to work.”

Tax balancing act

President Joe Biden has signaled support for tax-free tips, as well as top congressional leaders, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana.

The challenge, though, is writing a law that balances offering maximum benefit for workers while also ensuring that it won’t become a tool for wealthy tax dodgers.

Republicans recently introduced legislation with support from some Nevada Democrats. Rep. Steven Horsford. D-Nevada, has said he’ll introduce his own bill soon.

Tips account for nearly 10% of underreported income that makes up the tax gap, the difference between taxes paid and taxes owed, according to a 2019 Treasury watchdog report. When it was last measured in 2006, tips represented $23 billion of the $235 billion in total underreported income, Treasury found. Cracking down on noncompliance among tipped workers is a challenge for the IRS, said Ric D. Hulshoff, a Las Vegas tax attorney who previously worked at the agency.

Lawmakers say they want income and industry limitations, a new definition of what a tip is, and other potential guardrails to prevent abuse by wealthy, non-tipped workers and employers.

Both Lee and her Republican challenger for the swing district, Drew Johnson, support an income cap and restricting the benefits to certain industries. Lee said she wants to ensure that “Wall Street hedge fund managers” can’t claim their bonuses as tips.

Keeping the benefits limited to the service industry is Johnson’s “biggest concern,” he said, adding that he would support proposals that also exempt tips from federal payroll taxes.

‘God bless the IRS’

Unions and workers say they’ve had a tense history with the IRS on tip reporting since agents in the 1980s came to casinos and sat behind blackjack tables checking how much dealers were taking home in tips.

Workers said it’s not unusual to go through an entire shift without many tips, particularly when serving tourists from cultures where generous gratuities aren’t the norm. Some workers still must pay tax on the tips the IRS expected them to receive, though, due to some agreements casinos have with the agency in which workers pay taxes based on tip averages.

Tipped employees may still face audits, too. The Legal Aid Center of Southern Nevada has partnered with local unions on a program that provides legal assistance for workers under audit.

Exempting tips from taxes might be a chance for a new relationship between the IRS and Nevada’s tipped employees.

“God bless the IRS,” quipped Leain Vashon, who’s been bell captain at the Paris Hotel for nearly 25 years, and is a member of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226. “I’m not looking to get rid of taxes totally. I just want to be able to have a fair tax for me and for everyone else who’s working.”

Local 226, which represents over 60,000 service workers in Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada, and holds strong sway in the state’s politics, has been instrumental in bringing the tax-free tips to the top of the Democratic agenda. The union’s Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge initially called Trump’s idea an “empty promise,” but was quick to mobilize with the Nevada delegation to endorse a bill from Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, that would provide a 100% deduction for tipped wages, and introduce their own.

Pappageorge said the union also held conversations with Harris’ team ahead of her endorsement of the idea.

“We have relationships,” he said. “If there’s any discussion going on about gratuities and involves our members, we’re going to be in the conversation.”

Just a political move?

Despite building excitement around the tax-free tips proposals, Las Vegas workers and businesses remain skeptical.

“It’s definitely a double-edged sword,” said John Simmons, owner of the tapas restaurant Firefly off the Las Vegas Strip. “I want people to have a break, but then I also see that these politicians are using it in order to buy votes.”

Cervantes, the bartender, said it will ultimately come down to Congress to pass legislation codifying the proposal. Neither one of the candidates can act unilaterally if they take over the White House in 2025, he said.

While Pappageorge and lawmakers say they’ll make good on this promise, business owners and employees won’t count on any proposal until Congress makes serious moves.

Until there’s a law, “nobody will know who this helps and how much,” said P Moss, a Las Vegas and New York City restaurant owner.

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Accounting

Senate unveils plan to fast-track tax cuts, debt limit hike

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Senate Republicans unveiled a budget blueprint designed to fast-track a renewal of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and an increase to the nation’s borrowing limit, ahead of a planned vote on the resolution later this week. 

The Senate plan will allow for a $4 trillion extension of Trump’s tax cuts and an additional $1.5 trillion in further levy reductions. The House plan called for $4.5 trillion in total cuts.

Republicans say they are assuming that the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts will cost zero dollars.

The draft is a sign that divisions within the Senate GOP over the size and scope of spending cuts to offset tax reductions are closer to being resolved. 

Lawmakers, however, have yet to face some of the most difficult decisions, including which spending to cut and which tax reductions to prioritize. That will be negotiated in the coming weeks after both chambers approve identical budget resolutions unlocking the process.

The Senate budget plan would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion, compared with the $4 trillion hike in the House plan. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections. 

“This budget resolution unlocks the process to permanently extend proven, pro-growth tax policy,” Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo, an Idaho Republican, said. 

The blueprint is the latest in a multi-step legislative process for Republicans to pass a renewal of Trump’s tax cuts through Congress. The bill will renew the president’s 2017 reductions set to expire at the end of this year, which include lower rates for households and deductions for privately held businesses. 

Republicans are also hoping to include additional tax measures to the bill, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap and some of Trump’s campaign pledges to eliminate taxes on certain categories of income, including tips and overtime pay.

The plan would allow for the debt ceiling hike to be vote on separately from the rest of the tax and spending package. That gives lawmakers flexibility to move more quickly on the debt ceiling piece if a federal default looms before lawmakers can agree on the tax package.

Political realities

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Wednesday, after meeting with Trump at the White House to discuss the tax blueprint, that he’s not sure yet if he has the votes to pass the measure.

Thune in a statement said the budget has been blessed by the top Senate ruleskeeper but Democrats said that it is still vulnerable to being challenged later.

The biggest differences in the Senate budget from the competing House plan are in the directives for spending cuts, a reflection of divisions among lawmakers over reductions to benefit programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. 

The Senate plan pares back a House measure that calls for at least $2 trillion in spending reductions over a decade, a massive reduction that would likely mean curbing popular entitlement programs.

The Senate GOP budget grants significantly more flexibility. It instructs key committees that oversee entitlement programs to come up with at least $4 billion in cuts. Republicans say they expect the final tax package to contain much larger curbs on spending.

The Senate budget would also allow $150 billion in new spending for the military and $175 billion for border and immigration enforcement.

If the minimum spending cuts are achieved along with the maximum tax cuts, the plan would add $5.8 trillion in new deficits over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The Senate is planning a vote on the plan in the coming days. Then it goes to the House for a vote as soon as next week. There, it could face opposition from spending hawks like South Carolina’s Ralph Norman, who are signaling they want more aggressive cuts. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson can likely afford just two or three defections on the budget vote given his slim majority and unified Democratic opposition.

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How asset location decides bond ladder taxes

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Financial advisors and clients worried about stock volatility and inflation can climb bond ladders to safety — but they won’t find any, if those steps lead to a place with higher taxes.

The choice of asset location for bond ladders in a client portfolio can prove so important that some wealthy customers holding them in a taxable brokerage account may wind up losing money in an inflationary period due to the payments to Uncle Sam, according to a new academic study. And those taxes, due to what the author described as the “dead loss” from the so-called original issue discount compared to the value, come with an extra sting if advisors and clients thought the bond ladder had prepared for the rise in inflation.

Bond ladders — whether they are based on Treasury inflation-protected securities like the strategy described in the study or another fixed-income security — provide small but steady returns tied to the regular cadence of maturities in the debt-based products. However, advisors and their clients need to consider where any interest payments, coupon income or principal accretion from the bond ladders could wind up as ordinary income, said Cal Spranger, a fixed income and wealth manager with Seattle-based Badgley + Phelps Wealth Managers.

“Thats going to be the No. 1 concern about, where is the optimal place to hold them,” Spranger said in an interview. “One of our primary objectives for a bond portfolio is to smooth out that volatility. … We’re trying to reduce risk with the bond portfolio, not increase risks.”

READ MORE: Why laddered bond portfolios cover all the bases

The ‘peculiarly bad location’ for a bond ladder

Risk-averse planners, then, could likely predict the conclusion of the working academic paper, which was posted in late February by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus in the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University: Tax-deferred retirement accounts such as a 401(k) or a traditional individual retirement account are usually the best location for a Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder. The appreciation attributes available through an after-tax Roth IRA work better for equities than a bond ladder designed for decumulation, and the potential payments to Uncle Sam in brokerage accounts make them an even worse asset location.

“Few planners will be surprised to learn that locating a TIPS ladder in a taxable account leads to phantom income and excess payment of tax, with a consequent reduction in after-tax real spending power,” McQuarrie writes. “Some may be surprised to learn just how baleful that mistake in account location can be, up to and including negative payouts in the early years for high tax brackets and very high rates of inflation. In the worst cases, more is due in tax than the ladder payout provides. And many will be surprised to learn how rapidly the penalty for choosing the wrong asset location increases at higher rates of inflation — precisely the motivation for setting up a TIPS ladder in the first place. Perhaps the most surprising result of all was the discovery that excess tax payments in the early years are never made up. [Original issue discount] causes a dead loss.”

The Roth account may look like a healthy alternative, since the clients wouldn’t owe any further taxes on distributions from them in retirement. But the bond ladder would defeat the whole purpose of that vehicle, McQuarrie writes.

“Planners should recognize that a Roth account is a peculiarly bad location for a bond ladder, whether real or nominal,” he writes. “Ladders are decumulation tools designed to provide a stream of distributions, which the Roth account does not otherwise require. Locating a bond ladder in the Roth thus forfeits what some consider to be one of the most valuable features of the Roth account. If the bond ladder is the only asset in the Roth, then the Roth itself will have been liquidated as the ladder reaches its end.”

READ MORE: How to hedge risk with annuity ladders

RMD advantages

That means that the Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder will add the most value to portfolios in a tax-deferred account (TDA), which McQuarrie acknowledges is not a shocking recommendation to anyone familiar with them. On the other hand, some planners with clients who need to begin required minimum distributions from their traditional IRA may reap further benefits than expected from that location.

“More interesting is the demonstration that the after-tax real income received from a TIPS ladder located in a TDA does not vary with the rate of inflation, in contrast to what happens in a taxable account,” McQuarrie writes. “Also of note was the ability of most TIPS ladders to handle the RMDs due, and, at higher rates of inflation, to shelter other assets from the need to take RMDs.”

The present time of high yields from Treasury inflation-protected securities could represent an ample opportunity to tap into that scenario.

“If TIPS yields are attractive when the ladder is set up, distributions from the ladder will typically satisfy RMDs on the ladder balance throughout the 30 years,” McQuarrie writes. “The higher the inflation experienced, the greater the surplus coverage, allowing other assets in the account to be sheltered in part from RMDs by means of the TIPS ladder payout. However, if TIPS yields are borderline unattractive at ladder set up, and if the ladder proved unnecessary because inflation fell to historically low levels, then there may be a shortfall in RMD coverage in the middle years, requiring either that TIPS bonds be sold prematurely, or that other assets in the TDA be tapped to cover the RMD.”

READ MORE: A primer on the IRA ‘bridge’ to bigger Social Security benefits

The key takeaways on bond ladders

Other caveats to the strategies revolve around any possible state taxes on withdrawals or any number of client circumstances ruling out a universal recommendation. The main message of McQuarrie’s study serves as a warning against putting the ladder in a taxable brokerage account.

“Unsurprisingly, the higher the client’s tax rate, the worse the outcomes from locating a TIPS ladder in taxable when inflation rages,” he writes. “High-bracket taxpayers who accurately foresee a surge in future inflation, and take steps to defend against it, but who make the mistake of locating their TIPS ladder in taxable, can end up paying more in tax to the government than is received from the TIPS ladder during the first year or two.”

For municipal or other types of tax-exempt bonds, though, a taxable account is “the optimal place,” Spranger said. Convertible Treasury or corporate bonds show more similarity with the Treasury inflation-protected securities in that their ideal location is in a tax-deferred account, he noted.

Regardless, bonds act as a crucial core to a client’s portfolio, tamping down on the risk of volatility and sensitivity to interest rates. And the right ladder strategies yield more reliable future rates of returns for clients than a bond ETF or mutual fund, Spranger said.

“We’re strong proponents of using individual bonds, No. 1 so that we can create bond ladders, but, most importantly, for the certainty that individual bonds provide,” he said.

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Accounting

Why IRS cuts may spare a unit that facilitates mortgages

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Loan applicants and mortgage companies often rely on an Internal Revenue Service that’s dramatically downsizing to help facilitate the lending process, but they may be in luck.

That’s because the division responsible for the main form used to allow consumers to authorize the release of income-tax information to lenders is tied to essential IRS operations.

The Income Verification Express Service could be insulated from what NMN affiliate Accounting Today has described of a series of fluctuating IRS cuts because it’s part of the submission processing unit within wage and investment, a division central to the tax bureau’s purpose.

“It’s unlikely that IVES will be impacted due to association within submission processing,” said Curtis Knuth, president and CEO of NCS, a consumer reporting agency. “Processing tax returns and collecting revenue is the core function and purpose of the IRS.”

Knuth is a member of the IVES participant working group, which is comprised of representatives from companies that facilitate processing of 4506-C forms used to request tax transcripts for mortgages. Those involved represent a range of company sizes and business models.

The IRS has planned to slash thousands of jobs and make billions of dollars of cuts that are still in process, some of which have been successfully challenged in court.

While the current cuts might not be a concern for processing the main form of tax transcript requests this time around, there have been past issues with it in other situations like 2019’s lengthy government shutdown.

President Trump recently signed a continuing funding resolution to avert a shutdown. But it will run out later this year, so the issue could re-emerge if there’s an impasse in Congress at that time. Republicans largely dominate Congress but their lead is thinner in the Senate.

The mortgage industry will likely have an additional option it didn’t have in 2019 if another extended deadlock on the budget emerges and impedes processing of the central tax transcript form.

“It absolutely affected closings, because you couldn’t get the transcripts. You couldn’t get anybody on the phone,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of National One Mortgage Corp.’s Southeast division.

There is an automated, free way for consumers to release their transcripts that may still operate when there are issues with the 4506-C process, which has a $4 surcharge. However, the alternative to the 4506-C form is less straightforward and objective as it’s done outside of the mortgage process, requiring a separate logon and actions.

Some of the most recent IRS cuts have targeted technology jobs and could have an impact on systems, so it’s also worth noting that another option lenders have sometimes elected to use is to allow loans temporarily move forward when transcript access is interrupted and verified later. 

There is a risk to waiting for verification or not getting it directly from the IRS, however, as government-related agencies hold mortgage lenders responsible for the accuracy of borrower income information. That risk could increase if loan performance issues become more prevalent.

Currently, tax transcripts primarily come into play for government-related loans made to contract workers, said Crescenzo.

“That’s the only receipt that you have for a self-employed client’s income to know it’s valid,” he said.

The home affordability crunch and rise of gig work like Uber driving has increased interest in these types of mortgages, he said. 

Contract workers can alternatively seek financing from the private non-qualified mortgage market where bank statements could be used to verify self-employment income, but Crescenzo said that has disadvantages related to government-related loans.

“Non QM requires higher downpayments and interest rates than traditional financing,” he said.

In the next couple years, regional demand for loans based on self-employment income could rise given the federal job cuts planned broadly at public agencies, depending on the extent to which court challenges to them go through.

Those potential borrowers will find it difficult to get new mortgages until they can establish more of a track record with their new sources of income, in most cases two years from a tax filing perspective. 

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