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Economics

Trump ‘an agent of chaos and confusion, economists warn

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U.S. President Donald Trump attends the White House Crypto Summit at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 7, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Global market volatility and geopolitical turbulence in the wake of President Donald Trump’s return to the White House have led to warnings that the U.S. economy could be heading for a recession — but economists say that a downturn isn’t in the cards just yet.

“I don’t think we will talk about a U.S. recession. The U.S economy is resilient, I would say, largely despite Donald Trump,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

Dubbing Trump an “agent of chaos and confusion,” Schmieding said the president’s “zigzagging on tariffs shows that he has little idea of the potential consequences of his tariff policies.”

Nonetheless, “U.S. consumers have money to spend, [and] they probably will. The labor market in the U.S. remains reasonably firm, and with energy prices coming down a bit and probably some tax cuts and deregulation coming, I don’t think there’s an imminent recession risk,” according to Schmieding.

U.S. economy resilient despite 'agent of chaos' Trump, economist says

“But what is becoming ever clearer in the long run, Trump is hurting U.S. trend growth, that is growth in the years beyond 2026. And he stands for higher prices for U.S. consumers, which means, in my view, the Fed [Federal Reserve] has no reason to cut rates with Trump as president, and Trump sowing chaos and confusion,” he noted.

CNBC has contacted the White House for a response and is awaiting a reply.

International stock markets have been rocked to their foundations in recent weeks amid fears that Trump intended to revive a global trade war after announcing hard-hitting import tariffs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

Confusion and uncertainty have followed, as the president last Friday announced that there would be a reprieve and delay to April 2 on some tariffs on the U.S.’ neighbors and closest trading partners.

Trump’s unconventional approach to trade and international diplomacy has left markets unimpressed, with U.S. indices whipsawing, while strategists warned that negative market sentiment was bound to continue in the Trump 2.0 era. U.S. stock futures fell earlier Monday morning, indicating another rocky ride for American markets at the start of the new trading week.

Business leaders and economists have voiced concerns that tariffs will lead to further inflationary pressures on the U.S., with consumers likely to bear the brunt of higher prices on imported goods.

They also warn that investment, jobs and growth could suffer, as consumers tighten their belts and hunker down to wait out a period of economic unpredictability and potential “stagflation” marked by high inflation and high unemployment.

That would put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cutting from their current benchmark rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, in a bid to stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates can fuel more spending, and, in turn, inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday said that the central bank can wait to see how Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

‘A period of transition’

Recent economic data showing consumer confidence has taken a hit in February will be food for thought for the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics indicated last week that the U.S. gross domestic product could shrink by 2.4% for the period between January and March. A technical recession is defined as taking place when at least two consecutive quarters log negative growth.

Last week’s jobs data also showed that while the U.S. labor market is still expanding, signs of weakness could also be starting to creep in. Nonfarm payrolls data indicated job growth was weaker than expected in February, albeit still stable despite Trump’s efforts to cut the federal workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, exceeding the downwardly revised 125,000 of January, but coming in below the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz said the latest jobs data “tell us the economy continues to grow” and did not signal “increased recession risks created by the array of Trump’s policies.”

In a note on Friday, he said “the sum of Trump’s actions can yet skew the economy in any which way, including an implosion of capital spending.”

“Keep in mind that presidents have been known to accept downturns in year one of their presidency. It is a free pass, they blame the previous president and take credit for the recovery. My base case is still growth and the Fed holding still. My base concern comes from the capital markets side, break trade and you will break the capital inflows that support the economy,” Blitz said.

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he walks to board Marine One, while departing the White House en route to Florida, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 7, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Trump has refused to rule out the possibility of a recession this year, but insisted this weekend that the economy was in a “period of transition.”

Asked about the Atlanta Fed’s warning of an economic contraction by Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump seemed to acknowledge that his tariff plans could affect U.S. growth.

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said in an interview aired Sunday, when asked if the recession warning was a concern.

“There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” The White House leader added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

JPMorgan’s U.S. Market Intelligence unit last week noted that the U.S. economy was entering “another period of uncertainty” given the unpredictable nature of tariffs. The analysts said they were taking a “bearish” position on U.S. stocks, expecting markets to see more volatility and for U.S. growth to potentially “crater.”

“We have already seen the negative impact that policy/trade uncertainty has had on both household and corporate spending, so it seems likely that we see a larger magnitude of this over the next month. Keep an eye on the unemployment rate, layoffs, WARN notices, etc. If we start to see the unemployment rate rising rapidly, then that likely which push the market back into the ‘Recession Playbook,'” JPMorgan noted.

While a U.S. recession was not the bank’s base case scenario, JPMorgan analysts warned that “the undetermined length of tariffs and the potential for the trade war to see an acceleration in new tariffs [means] we think stocks will be challenged as U.S. GDP growth estimates are cut.”

“Given the lack of a potential end to this escalation, the expectation is that tariffs of these magnitude with drive both Canada and Mexico into a recession. Look for U.S. GDP growth expectations to crater and for earnings revisions to be materially lower, forcing a re-think of year-end forecasts. With this in mind, we are changing our view to Tactically Bearish,” they noted.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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