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Trump, Musk promote idea of $5,000 ‘DOGE dividend’ checks

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Elon Musk and President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House, Feb. 11, 2025.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

As the so-called Department of Government Efficiency looks to cut federal spending, Elon Musk and President Donald Trump have floated the idea that some of any savings could come back to Americans in the form of $5,000 dividend checks.

But experts say it’s too soon to say whether such checks could materialize — and caution that if they did, there could be economic consequences for consumers.

How ‘DOGE dividend’ proposal came to be

Both Musk and Trump boosted a proposal that James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, posted Feb. 18 on social media platform X, that suggested sending millions of American households checks.

“Americans sent their hard-earned tax dollars to Washington, D.C.,” Fishback told CNBC.com. He said he believes some of “those tax dollars were wasted.”

“There needs to be restitution to correct that,” Fishback said.

The White House released in early February a list of what it called “waste and abuse” of funds at the U.S. Agency for International Development, including $1.5 million to promote diversity, equity and inclusion in Serbia’s workplaces and $70,000 for a DEI musical in Ireland.

Under Trump, DOGE, an advisory group, set an aim to cut $2 trillion in federal spending. However, Musk said in a recent interview that target may be the “best-case outcome” and there may be a “good shot” of cutting half that amount.

In his proposal, Fishback starts from the presumption that DOGE will achieve $2 trillion in cuts to the government. By taking 20% of that total savings — or around $400 billion — that may leave room for around 79 million tax-paying households to each receive a $5,000 tax refund, per Fishback’s plan.

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The idea of direct money may sound familiar to American households, millions of whom received Covid-era stimulus checks. But these payments would be different from the stimulus checks, which work to stimulate the economy at a time of weak gross domestic product growth, Fishback said. Unlike the stimulus checks, the DOGE dividend checks would be only for households that pay federal income taxes, Fishback said.

The idea calls for a dividend closer to something like the Alaska Permanent Fund, in that it would represent a share of collected savings, noted Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The rebate would be sent only to households that are “net payers of federal income tax,” per the plan — people who pay more in taxes than they get back. Under those terms, lower-income Americans would not qualify for the return. According to the Pew Research Center, most Americans who have an adjusted gross income of under $40,000 effectively pay no federal income tax.

Fishback, meanwhile, told CNBC.com there’s no minimum income requirement, but Americans would have to file a federal tax return to receive the money. The prospect of the payments may provide an incentive for non-working individuals to re-enter the labor force, according to the plan.

To be sure, the terms of the plan could change if lawmakers decide to consider it.

Trump has welcomed the idea. Musk, who Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, “very much agrees the incentives are in place” to get everyday Americans to report waste, fraud and abuse, Fishback said of a recent conversation he had with the billionaire.

Congress would have to approve payments

Yet to send the DOGE checks out, the Trump administration will need Congress’ approval. Fishback has been meeting with House and Senate members to promote the idea.

Last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, said that while it would be “great” politically, other priorities should come first. Experts say DOGE needs to figure out how much money has been saved before promising people checks in the mail.

“We have a $36 trillion federal debt. We have a giant deficit,” Johnson said. “I think we need to pay down the credit card.”

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller recently said the DOGE checks will be “worked on through the reconciliation process with Congress that’s going underway right now.”

Yet some experts have expressed doubts about the proposal.

“There’s no appropriation for this,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who ran the Clinton Administration’s National Performance Review, which implemented cuts in an effort to modernize and improve the federal government’s performance.

Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis on 'DOGE dividend' proposal: That's Trump being Trump

“You cannot spend money without Congress telling you that you can spend money,” Kamarck said. “That is illegal.”

It also remains to be seen whether the DOGE initiative can generate enough savings to justify $5,000 payments, Kamarck said. Even with the savings DOGE plans hope to generate, initiatives like curbing immigration will require new or increased spending in other areas.

Without yet having generated meaningful savings, it’s premature to talk about dividend checks, MacGuineas said.

“The bottom line is when you’re running $2 trillion deficits every year, you can’t give away more money in stimulus checks,” MacGuineas said.

“Basically, you’re borrowing more to give back to people, but the borrowing still falls on them,” MacGuineas said.

But if the DOGE were able to generate $1 trillion in savings per year, “absolutely additional savings being returned to taxpayers would make total sense and be desirable,” she said.

‘Wrong time’ to have consumer stimulus?

Inflation spiked in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Some experts worry that additional direct payments to Americans would contribute to more inflation.

“This is certainly the wrong time to have any sort of consumer stimulus,” said Judge Glock, director of research and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. “Inflation remains elevated; any sort of stimulus would exacerbate that inflation.”

However, the amount of money saved under DOGE may not provide payments big enough to fuel inflation, Kamarck said.

The prospect of direct payments comes as Congress may look at extending provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act later this year.

There are already a number of policies being added to that package that are raising deficit concerns, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

“This would be another very large thing to try and squeeze in as well,” he said.

Meanwhile, Fishback maintains the DOGE dividend checks would simply refund Americans money they already contributed through income taxes.

Moreover, the way Americans would likely use an unexpected $5,000 — by paying off debt, saving or investing toward long-term goals like retirement — would not be inflationary, Fishback said, citing a 2019 CNBC survey.

“Every American has the mechanism with DOGE and the incentive with the DOGE dividend to report this waste, fraud and abuse,” Fishback said. “We’ll save even more of our hard-earned tax dollars when we give every American skin in the game.”

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What a Trump, Powell Fed showdown means for your money

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Trump on Fed Chair Powell: Why doesn't he lower rates

Ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, tensions are escalating between the White House and the central bank, with consumers seemingly caught in the crossfire.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates already.

Trump has previously said the central bank should cut interest rates by a full percentage point. “Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Vice President JD Vance echoed the president’s message in a social media post Wednesday on X, after a key inflation reading came in slightly better than expected.

“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

The president has argued that maintaining a fed funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates. The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Still, so far, Trump’s comments have had no impact and experts say the Fed is likely to hold its benchmark steady again when it meets next week — even as the political pressure to slash rates ramps up significantly.

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Since December, the federal funds rate has been in a target range of between 4.25%-4.5% and futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

In prepared remarks last month, Powell said that the federal funds rate is likely to stay higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. He has also said repeatedly that politics will not play a role in the Fed’s policy decisions.

But Trump, who nominated Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has publicly berated the Fed’s decision-making

‘The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized’

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Craig Hudson | Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As it stands, market pricing indicates the Fed is unlikely to consider further interest rate cuts until at least September. Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well, which some may consider a welcome change.

“The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized from the borrowers’ perspective,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“The reason for lower rates is what really matters,” McBride said. “We want the fed to be cutting rates because inflationary pressures are receding.”

For now, “inflation is still higher than desired,” he added.

The risk is that reducing rates too soon could halt or reverse progress on tamping down inflation, according to Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future.”

“Now you have a situation where Trump is willing to pressure the Fed to lower rates while they have less flexibility to do that,” he said. “They have to keep rates higher for longer to extinguish inflation.”

Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data, central bank officials have said that they will wait until there’s more clarity about Trump’s tariff agenda before they consider lowering rates again.

The White House has said that tariffs will not cause runaway inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would absorb much of the costs themselves. However, many economists believe that the full effect from tariffs could show up later in the summer as surplus inventories draw down.

For consumers waiting for borrowing costs to ease, they may be better off of the Fed sticks to its current monetary policy, according to Higgins.

“There’s this temptation to move fast and that is counterproductive,” Higgins said. “If the Fed prematurely lowers rates, it’s going to allow inflation to reignite and then they will have to raise rates again.”

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Billy Long confirmed as IRS Commissioner amid sweeping agency cuts

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Former Representative Billy Long, a Republican from Missouri, speaks during a campaign event for former US President Donald Trump at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, US, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. 

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Senate on Thursday confirmed Billy Long as the next IRS Commissioner, which could mark a shift for taxpayers amid sweeping agency cuts.

Picked by President Donald Trump, the former Missouri Congressman’s nomination received mixed support from Washington and the tax community. But Senate Republicans confirmed Long via a party-line vote.

During the confirmation process, Long faced Democratic scrutiny over Trump loyalties and ties to dubious tax credits, among other questions, which he addressed during a May Senate Finance Committee hearing and written testimony

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When asked about Trump’s power over the agency during the May Senate hearing, Long said: “The IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”

In written testimony, Long said he would “follow the law” when asked for specifics about how he would respond to political favor requests from Trump.

“The confirmation process was pretty controversial,” said Carl Tobias, law professor at University of Richmond’s School of Law.

But it’s currently unclear what Long as IRS Commissioner will mean for taxpayers, he said.

IRS cuts will have ‘significant impacts’

Long’s confirmation comes amid widespread IRS cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

The hiring freeze, deferred resignation programs and reductions in force “will have significant impacts” on IRS operations, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, or TIGTA, said in a June 6 report.

A separate TIGTA report from May found the agency had lost nearly one-third of its so-called revenue agents, who conduct audits, as of March 2025.

Closing the ‘tax gap’

The “tax gap” — federal levies incurred but not paid voluntarily on time — was estimated at $696 billion for tax year 2022, according to the latest IRS data.

When asked about the tax gap, Long answered in written testimony: “My goal is to modernize and streamline the IRS, so we are collecting the maximum amount owed each year.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget request calls for a 37% reduction in IRS spending, including staffing and technology cuts. These reductions could impact revenue collections, according to a Budget Lab at Yale analysis.

In a May House Appropriations subcommittee hearing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “collections” were among his IRS priorities. He said “smarter IT” and the “AI boom” could help meet revenue goals.

Trump’s mega tax and spending bill faces pushback from fiscal hawks, Musk

In 2022, Congress approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, with more than half earmarked for enforcement of corporate and high-net-worth tax dodgers. That funding has since been targeted by Republicans.

As the agency faces cuts, it could also soon see more administrative work once Republicans enact sweeping tax changes via Trump’s big beautiful spending bill.

For example, one provision would require precertification of each qualifying child for filers claiming the earned income tax credit. This could be challenging amid staffing cuts, experts say.

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Tenants are flooding the suburbs where they can’t afford to buy

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Aerial view of tract housing neighborhood in Boise, Idaho, USA.

Simonkr | E+ | Getty Images

Renting is taking off in the suburbs as homeownership remains out of reach for many would-be buyers.

Between 2018 and 2023, rentership surged by at least 5 percentage points in 11 out of 20 suburbs surrounding the largest U.S. metro areas, according to a recent analysis by Point2Homes, a rental market research company.

During the same period, 15 suburbs went from being predominantly composed of homeowners to majority-renter communities. The trend spans fast-growing Sun Belt metros like Dallas, Houston and Miami as well as Northeastern cities like Boston and Philadelphia.

In five of those top 20 metro areas — Dallas, Minneapolis, Boston, Tampa and Baltimore — the suburbs are gaining renters faster than the urban centers they surround, Point2Homes found. The share of residents who rent surged in the Dallas suburbs by 17.6% from 2018 to 2023, while that rate rose just 7.9% in the city itself — with the nearby suburbs of Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie each gaining over 5,000 renter households apiece during that period.

Back in 2018, it was harder to buy a home in Dallas County, where most of the city sits, than it was in the metro area’s more suburban counties, like those including Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie — suburbs where the ranks of renters have swelled faster than virtually anywhere else, Point2Homes found. That’s no longer the case: Homebuying is now more difficult in the suburban counties surrounding Dallas than it is in Dallas County itself, the NBC News Home Buyer Index shows.

Housing affordability is a nationwide problem spanning cities and suburbs alike.

Mortgage costs have risen sharply since the pandemic, pricing out many prospective buyers in all sorts of in-demand areas. Average interest rates on the popular 30-year fixed home loan currently hover just under 7%, levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. In a market this tough, some housing experts say the proliferation of rental properties has helped keep suburban lifestyles accessible to people who otherwise couldn’t afford them.

A “For Rent” sign is placed in front of a home in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., June 8, 2021.

Will Dunham | Reuters

“You have your own land, you have kids or you have a dog, and you want that space,” said N. Edward Coulson, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and the director of its Center for Real Estate. “They get all that amenity from having a single-family home.”

Mark, a suburbanite just outside Chicago who asked to be identified by his first name to avoid professional blowback for weighing in on hot-button housing issues, said the type of property he has rented for three years is out of budget for him to buy. He estimated many comparable properties in the area would cost 30% more in monthly housing payments than his current rent, and he’s considering leaving the area so he can purchase someplace else.

“If I want to stay here, it’s basically not tenable,” Mark said.

Andrew Decker, a renter in Lake Villa, Illinois, halfway between Chicago and Milwaukee, said he and his family would love to buy the property where they live now, which he said was offered to him for $340,000.

“We would like to make it our forever home if we could afford it, but it’s just so expensive,” Decker said. “If they were to come at me and tell me that, ‘Hey, you can buy this house for 200 grand today,’ I’d pull the trigger tomorrow. I wouldn’t even hesitate. But 340’s crazy.”

Tara Raghuveer, who runs the tenant advocacy group Tenant Union Federation, said affordability issues that have fueled the suburban rental boom threaten to push people farther from urban cores.

“As people are moved out of the city, they’re further from transportation, they might be further from employment, they might be living in homes that are not necessarily connected to other people like them, which impacts things like child care, Social Security,” Raghuveer said.

Landlords, however, tout the benefits that come from renting in the ‘burbs.

“The ability to have one payment that covers all your expenses generally — you don’t have to deal with the mortgage payment and the home insurance and maybe the HOA and then a lot of maintenance expense, so on — has been something that for a lot of people has been worth it,” said George Ratiu, vice president of research at the National Apartment Association trade group, which represents rental operators.

A construction worker helps builds a roof on a residential homes in Irvine, California, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

Developers have also been building different types of properties for suburban tenants, including multifamily complexes. Jay Parsons, a housing economist and host of “The Rent Roll” podcast, points to the rise of “suburban downtowns,” partly fueled by the pandemic-era shift to remote work. These mixed-use developments are typically aimed at offering younger families a balance between urban convenience and suburban amenities, he said.

“You can still be close to your job. You can be close to nice restaurants and shops but live in a suburban area where you’re still using a car, and you still have probably a rent that’s more affordable than living in most downtowns,” Parsons said.

Coulson doesn’t expect the appeal of the suburbs to fade anytime soon, which could prop up prices in many of them for buyers and renters alike.

“If you work downtown, it’s still an advantage to live downtown, but it’s not as great an advantage” as it used to be, he said, now that remote work remains commonplace — despite an ongoing drumbeat of return-to-office mandates. “What that does is also raise the cost of living in the suburbs, because now more people want to live in the suburbs.”

“That’s a dynamic that’s going to have to work itself out a little bit more before we know the final impact on suburban versus downtown pricing,” he said.

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