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Trump says transition period likely for economy and you can’t watch the stock market

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NEC Director Kevin Hassett: A lot of reason to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward

President Donald Trump and other senior White House officials have spent the past several days bracing Americans for a potential economic slowdown that they say will then lead to stronger growth ahead.

With fears brewing over the potential tariff impact, the labor market slowing and indicators pointed toward a possible negative growth in the first quarter, the president and his top lieutenants are projecting a mostly optimistic outlook tempered with warnings about near-term churning.

“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” Trump said Sunday on the Fox News show “Sunday Morning Futures.” “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. … It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Asked whether he thinks a recession is imminent, Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that.” He later added, “Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he walks to board Marine One, while departing the White House en route to Florida, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 7, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

The comments come during a tumultuous period for markets, with stocks riding a continuing roller coaster depending on the news of the day. Major averages slid again Monday, with the most recent White House assurances doing little to assuage jangled market nerves.

While Trump used Wall Street as a continuous barometer of his progress during his first term in office, he discouraged making it a yardstick this time around.

“What I have to do is build a strong country,” he said. “You can’t really watch the stock market.”

‘A detox period’ from spending

An emerging theme from the administration is that any slowdown or reversal in growth is a legacy from Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden and his debt-and-deficit fueled stimulus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for a “rebalancing” of the economy away from fiscal and monetary largesse.

“There’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,” Bessent said Friday on CNBC. “The market and the economy have just become hooked and we’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.”

That adjustment could come sooner rather than later.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely followed GDPNow gauge of incoming economic data is tracking a 2.4% decline in the growth rate for the first quarter. If it holds up — the measure can be volatile, particularly early in the quarter — it would be the first quarter to go negative in three years and the biggest retrenchment since the Covid pandemic.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, in a Monday interview with CNBC, called the GDPNow outlook “a metric of the inheritance of President Biden” and “a very, very temporary phenomenon.”

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward,” he said. “But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data, including the negative GDPNow, which are related both to the Biden inheritance and to some timing effects that are happening ahead of tariffs.”

Speaking Sunday to NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, “There’s going to be no recession in America. … If Donald Trump is bringing growth to America, I would never bet on recession, no chance.”

Worries about jobs and the consumer

One big mover for the Fed model was a surge in the trade deficit to a record $131.4 billion in January, in part the product of a jump in gold imports as well as companies stockpiling ahead of the tariffs.

However, there also are rising concerns about consumer spending following a pullback in January. Consumer activity accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, so any further decline would be added cause for concern.

At the same time, a decent headline payrolls gain in February of 151,000 masked some underlying trouble spots for the economy.

While the commonly cited unemployment rate just nudged up to 4.1%, the so-called real rate that measures discouraged workers and those at work part-time but would rather have full-time jobs soared to 8%, a half percentage point gain to the highest level since October 2021.

The increase came as rolls of those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose by 460,000, a 10% increase to the highest level since May 2021. Most of the move in the category came from those citing slack work or business conditions. Further, the level of those reporting at work full-time slumped by 1.2 million while part-timers spiked by 610,000.

Market veteran Jim Paulsen, a former economist and strategist with Wells Fargo and other firms, noted in a Substack post that the labor market is approaching “stall speed” and that the gains in the real unemployment rate are consistent with a recession, though that’s not necessarily his forecast.

The increase, he wrote, “highlights increasing stress in the U.S. jobs market. Moreover, this is yet another indicator which will fan recession fears among investors and boost worries about a potential bear market.”

Few economists on Wall Street are expecting a recession. Goldman Sachs, for instance, cut its GDP outlook for 2025 to 1.7%, down half a percentage point from the previous forecast, while nudging up the 12-month recession probability to just 20%, from 15%.

Trump administration officials insist the current soft patch, including the tariff uncertainty, is part of a broader strategy.

“What we’re doing is we’re building a tremendous foundation,” Trump said on the Fox show.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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