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Trump Tax Cuts Were Neither Panacea Nor Rip-Off

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By Karl W. Smith, Bloomberg Opinion (TNS)

Back in 2017, the debate around President Donald Trump’s tax cuts was a case study in how quickly a discussion around legitimate policy can descend into partisan nonsense. On one side, Republicans spouted unfounded claims that the tax cuts would pay for themselves. On the other, Democrats spouted equally unfounded claims that only big business and the wealthy would benefit.

As usual, the truth landed somewhere in the middle. No, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 didn’t pay for itself but at this moment reversing the marquee part of the legislation—lower tax rates for companies—to help narrow the bulging budget deficit is the last thing we should do. And while the cuts yielded benefits to Americans up and down the income scale, the benefits could best be described as modest.

Understanding what the legislation did and didn’t do is relevant now because they expire in 2025, and whoever wins this year’s presidential election will have to decide whether to extend them. What’s not in dispute is that the act represented the most sweeping overhaul the tax system since the Reagan administration. For businesses, it aimed to spur capital spending by slashing the corporate tax from 35% to 21%. For individuals, it lowered rates across the board and simplified the code by limiting itemized deductions, increasing the standard deduction taken by those who don’t itemize and expanding access to the child tax credit.

The problem now is that largely because of fiscal spending to support the economy through the pandemic, the federal budget deficit has expanded to 6.44% of gross domestic product from 4.67% at the end of 2019, which at the time was the biggest shortfall since 2013. Also, the cost of servicing the deficit by borrowing has soared along with benchmark interest rates the last two years. For this reason alone, it’s possible some, but not all, the cuts will reversed. But which ones? Whatever is decided, the corporate cuts are probably the last thing we want to repeal.

Despite the insistence of Republicans, who point to the rise in federal revenue following 2017, we can’t shrink the deficit by further reducing taxes. In 2022, federal revenue came in at $4.9 trillion, far higher than the $4.2 trillion predicted by the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office before the tax cuts. Two factors are responsible for the outperformance. One, capital gains tax revenue jumped following the stock market’s big rally in 2020 and 2021. Two, a worker shortage during the pandemic caused wages to rise by almost 5% over the course of 2021. Higher wages not only led to higher incomes but also pushed many Americans into higher tax brackets, thereby increasing revenue.

Democrats have described the tax cuts as only benefiting the wealthy. This is also a gross distortion of the facts. Between 2017 and 2019, taxpayers at both the bottom and top of the income scale saw their average tax rate decline by a little less than 1%. Those in between saw more significant reductions, with the upper middle class—defined as those making $200,000 to $500,000 a year—seeing their tax rates decline by 2.5%. This reflects the fact that many of them are small business owners who, along with big corporations, received additional tax cuts designed to encourage economic growth.

In theory, cutting taxes on businesses encourages them to expand production because it increases their after-tax profit margins. Hence, companies are more willing to hire workers and invest in new technology or equipment to boost sales, spurring economic growth.

In practice, many Democrats and even some Republicans were concerned that businesses would use those higher profits to fund stock buybacks or higher dividend payouts to investors. Indeed, buybacks did increase sharply after 2017. For example, Apple Inc. doubled stock buybacks as its investment in the US declined. That was a bad look, but it doesn’t necessarily mean tax cuts didn’t work. If there had been none, Apple might have decided to decrease investment even more to fund stock buybacks.

Teasing out precisely what effect the Trump tax cuts had on a particular company’s investment decisions requires a deep dive into financial and tax records. Four economists from Harvard University, Princeton University, the University of Chicago and the U.S. Treasury Department conducted a detailed analysis of more than 12,000 companies. The results released last month found that companies which experienced larger increases in their return on investment as a result of the tax cut, boosted their investment spending by larger amounts.

With their results, the economists calculated the effect lower tax rates had on the broad economy. Their estimates show that from 2018 to 2023, the Trump tax cuts raised annual investment by a little more than 7%. That equates to an additional $265 billion in private investment in 2023. They also estimated that increased business investment raised the average worker’s wages by about 1%—an income boost roughly equal to what millions of Americans got directly from the tax cuts. Yet, the corporate tax cuts cost $450 billion in the form of decreased federal revenue, compared with $1.1 trillion for individual tax cuts.

The Trump tax cuts were neither an economic panacea nor a rip-off. They produced a modest but meaningful increase in income for working Americans, both by reducing their tax burdens and increasing their wages. Lawmakers should keep this in the front of their minds as they debate how much, if any, of those tax cuts to keep.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Karl W. Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Previously, he was vice president for federal policy at the Tax Foundation and assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina.

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©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com/opinion. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC.

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Leaders

Mark Cuban is The Maverick Entrepreneur Changing Business and Beyond

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Mark Cuban's journey embodies the American entrepreneurial spirit

From selling garbage bags door-to-door as a child to becoming a billionaire tech pioneer and beloved “Shark,” Mark Cuban’s journey embodies the American entrepreneurial spirit. His straight-talking approach and business acumen have made him one of the most recognizable business figures of our time.

Early Life and Education

Born in Pittsburgh on July 31, 1958, to working-class parents, Cuban learned the value of hustle early. His grandfather, a Russian immigrant, sold merchandise from the back of his car—perhaps planting the entrepreneurial seed that would define Cuban’s future.

After graduating from Indiana University in 1981 with a degree in business, Cuban didn’t follow a traditional career path. Instead, he moved to Dallas with just $60 in his pocket, sleeping on the floor of a friend’s apartment while working as a bartender.

Building His Fortune

Cuban’s first major success came in 1990 when he sold his computer consulting firm, MicroSolutions, for $6 million. However, his true financial breakthrough arrived during the internet boom of the 1990s. Cuban and his business partner Todd Wagner founded Broadcast.com, an internet radio company that streamed audio of sports events and other content.

In 1999, Yahoo acquired Broadcast.com for $5.7 billion in stock—a deal that instantly made Cuban a billionaire and cemented his place in tech history.

The Dallas Mavericks Era

In 2000, Cuban purchased a majority stake in the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks for $285 million. Under his passionate and sometimes controversial leadership, the team transformed from a struggling franchise into NBA champions in 2011.

Unlike traditional team owners, Cuban sits courtside at games, openly criticizes referees, and maintains close relationships with players. His hands-on approach revolutionized NBA ownership culture and turned the Mavericks into a billion-dollar franchise.

Beyond Business: Media and Philanthropy

Cuban’s charismatic personality made him a natural fit for television. Since 2011, he has been a main investor on ABC’s “Shark Tank,” where his no-nonsense approach and investment savvy have helped launch numerous successful startups.

Behind the public persona lies a dedicated philanthropist. The Mark Cuban Foundation supports various causes, including entrepreneurship programs for at-risk youth and research into treating rare diseases. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Cuban launched Cost Plus Drugs, aiming to dramatically reduce prescription medication prices for millions of Americans.

Looking Forward

Today, Cuban continues to disrupt industries through his forward-thinking investments in AI, cryptocurrency, and healthcare. Despite his billions, colleagues describe him as remarkably approachable and genuinely passionate about helping entrepreneurs succeed.

Cuban remains focused on making healthcare more affordable through Cost Plus Drugs and exploring new frontiers in digital technology. His commitment to transparency in business practices and creating opportunities for others forms the cornerstone of his ongoing legacy.

For aspiring entrepreneurs, Cuban’s advice remains consistent: follow your passion, outwork the competition, and always be learning. As he often says, “Work like there is someone working 24 hours a day to take it all away from you.”

Mark Cuban’s journey from selling garbage bags to building a multi-billion-dollar empire proves that with determination, innovation, and a willingness to challenge the status quo, extraordinary success is possible.

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Technology

Quantum Computing is Transforming Industries, Security, and Future Technologies

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Quantum Computing is Transforming Industries, Security, and Future Technologies

Quantum computing is rapidly emerging as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. Unlike classical computers, which use bits to process information as either 0s or 1s, quantum computers leverage qubits, allowing them to exist in multiple states simultaneously. This property, known as superposition, along with entanglement and quantum tunneling, enables quantum computers to solve complex problems exponentially faster than traditional systems. As this technology advances, industries across the board are exploring its potential to revolutionize computing, security, and data processing.

Real-World Applications of Quantum Computing in Industries

Several industries are already benefiting from quantum computing’s capabilities. In healthcare, quantum algorithms are accelerating drug discovery by simulating molecular structures at an unprecedented scale, significantly reducing the time required for pharmaceutical research. Financial institutions are leveraging quantum computing to optimize trading strategies, portfolio management, and risk assessment. In manufacturing, quantum simulations enhance material science, leading to the development of stronger and more efficient materials. The logistics sector is also utilizing quantum computing to optimize supply chain management, reducing operational costs and improving efficiency.

Key Developments from Tech Giants in Quantum Research

Leading technology companies such as Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Intel are at the forefront of quantum computing research. Google made headlines with its claim of achieving quantum supremacy in 2019 when its quantum processor completed a calculation in 200 seconds that would take a classical supercomputer thousands of years. IBM continues to advance its quantum computing roadmap with cloud-accessible quantum computers and the development of a 1,000-qubit processor. Microsoft is investing heavily in topological qubits, a novel approach aimed at creating more stable quantum processors. Meanwhile, Intel is working on silicon-based quantum chips, striving to make quantum computing more scalable and accessible.

Quantum Cryptography and Its Potential to Redefine Security

As quantum computers advance, they pose a significant threat to current encryption methods. Traditional cryptographic techniques, such as RSA and ECC encryption, rely on the difficulty of factoring large numbers, a challenge that quantum computers can overcome almost instantly. Quantum cryptography, particularly quantum key distribution (QKD), offers a solution by leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics to create theoretically unbreakable encryption. Governments and cybersecurity firms are actively researching post-quantum cryptographic solutions to safeguard sensitive data against potential quantum attacks.

Challenges in Scaling Quantum Technologies

Despite its immense potential, quantum computing faces several challenges before it can become widely adopted. One of the biggest hurdles is qubit stability, as qubits are highly sensitive to environmental disturbances, leading to errors in computations. Error correction mechanisms are still in their early stages, requiring significant advancements before quantum computers can handle large-scale, practical applications. Additionally, quantum hardware is expensive and requires extreme cooling conditions, making commercialization difficult. Researchers and tech companies are actively working on solutions to address these challenges, but widespread implementation remains years, if not decades, away.

Conclusion

Quantum computing is poised to revolutionize industries by solving complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers. From pharmaceutical research and financial modeling to secure communications and logistics optimization, its applications are vast and transformative. However, challenges related to scalability, stability, and cost must be addressed before quantum computers can become mainstream. With continued advancements from tech giants and research institutions, the future of quantum computing holds immense promise, paving the way for groundbreaking innovations in computing and security.

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Technology

Reddit CEO Steve Huffman Unveils Monetization Strategy for 2025

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Reddit CEO Steve Huffman Unveils Monetization Strategy

In a strategic move to diversify revenue streams and enhance user engagement, Reddit CEO Steve Huffman has unveiled plans to introduce paid subscriptions for select subreddit content by the end of 2025. This initiative aims to offer exclusive, subscriber-only content within certain communities while maintaining the platform’s foundational free access.

During a recent “Ask Me Anything” session, Huffman described the paid content model as a “work in progress,” emphasizing its significance as one of the “new, key features” slated for rollout this year. He reassured users that the introduction of paid subreddits would not compromise the availability and growth of free content on the platform. This approach seeks to balance monetization efforts with Reddit’s commitment to open access, ensuring that the core user experience remains intact.

In addition to paid subscriptions, Reddit is exploring the development of marketplace features within subreddits. This would enable users to conduct transactions directly on the platform, facilitating the buying and selling of goods and services without the need for third-party platforms. Such a marketplace could significantly enhance user interactions and create new monetization avenues for both Reddit and its users. However, Huffman noted that this aspect of monetization is still under development and may take time to fully implement.

These strategic initiatives come in the wake of Reddit’s financial performance in 2024, where the company reported a net loss, prompting a reevaluation of its monetization strategies. Despite the financial setback, Reddit experienced a 39% increase in daily active unique visitors, totaling 101.7 million users. This growth, although slightly below market estimates, underscores the platform’s expanding user base and the potential for monetization through diversified offerings.

Reddit’s foray into paid content and on-platform transactions reflects a broader trend among social media platforms seeking sustainable revenue models beyond traditional advertising. By introducing exclusive content and facilitating user-driven commerce, Reddit aims to enhance user engagement, attract new audiences, and provide content creators with opportunities to monetize their contributions. As these plans unfold, the platform will need to navigate potential challenges, including user reception and the integration of new features, to successfully balance monetization with its community-driven ethos.

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