Finance

Trump’s first 100 days are the worst for the stock market since Nixon

Published

3 weeks ago

April 28, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump is displayed on a television screen as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 7, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office are the worst for the stock market for the start of a president’s four-year term since the 1970s.

The S&P 500’s 7.9% drop from when Trump was sworn into office on Jan. 20 through the April 25 close, is the second worst first 100-day performance going back to the beginning of President Richard Nixon’s second term, according to CFRA Research. Nixon saw the S&P 500 tumble 9.9% in 1973, after a series of economic measures he took to combat inflation resulted in the 1973 to 1975 recession. Nixon would later resign in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal.

On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% in the first 100 days for any president, in data of post-election years going from 1944 through 2020, CFRA showed.

The severity of the stock drawdown to start Trump’s presidency stands in marked contrast to the initial euphoria following his November election victory, when the S&P 500 surged to all-time highs amid confidence the former businessman would bring about much hoped for tax cuts and deregulation. From Election Day to Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 advanced 3.7%, CFRA data shows.

The rally sputtered and then dove sharply as Trump used his early days in office to push forth other campaign promises that investors had taken less seriously, particularly an aggressive approach to trade that many worry will raise inflation and push the U.S. into a recession.

In April, the S&P 500 took a nosedive, losing 10% in just two days and briefly entering bear market territory, following Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement. Trump then walked back part of that announcement, giving countries a 90-day pause to renegotiate deals, that soothed some of investors’ concerns. Many worry there’s further downside ahead.

“Everyone’s looking for this bottom here,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.”

S&P 500 since Jan. 17 close

The S&P 500, which reached a closing high of 6,144.15 on Feb. 19, closed Friday at 5,525.21. It has erased all post-election gains from November.

To be sure, Trump has two more trading days to cut his losses. His first 100 days technically end on Tuesday. If the S&P 500 rallies this week, he could get close to the third worst start — the 6.9% decline during the first 100 days of George W. Bush in 2001.

Finance

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent

Published

6 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a meeting with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the risks created by record U.S. deficits, tariffs and international tensions.

Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.

“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think” they can, he said.

“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs” yet, Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%; that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency downgrading the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government’s growing debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed the past few months over worries that President Donald Trump‘s trade policies will raise inflation and slow the world’s largest economy.

Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.

In six months, those projections will fall to 0% earnings growth after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that were to happen, stocks prices will likely fall.

“I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to earnings” ratio tracked closely by stock market analysts.

The odds of stagflation, “which is basically a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.

Separately, one of Dimon’s top deputies said that corporate clients are still in “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other deals.

Investment banking revenue is headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period, while trading revenue was trending higher by a “mid-to-high” single digit percentage, said Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the firm’s commercial and investment bank.

On the ever-present question of Dimon’s timeline to hand over the CEO reins to one of his deputies, Dimon said that nothing changed from his guidance last year, when he said he would likely remain for less than five more years.

“If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” as executive chairman, Dimon said, “that’s a long time.”

Of all the executive presentations given Monday, consumer banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest speaking time at a full hour. She is considered a top successor candidate, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she would not be seeking the top job.

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: UNH, TSLA, BABA

Published

8 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Klarna doubles losses in first quarter as IPO remains on hold

Published

11 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Klarna saw its losses jump in the first quarter as the popular buy now, pay later firm applies the brakes on a hotly anticipated U.S. initial public offering.

The Swedish payments startup said its net loss for the first three months of 2025 totaled $99 million — significantly worse than the $47 million loss it reported a year ago. Klarna said this was due to several one-off costs related to depreciation, share-based payments and restructuring.

Revenues at the firm increased 13% year-over-year to $701 million. Klarna said it now has 100 million active users and 724,00 merchant partners globally.

It comes as Klarna remains in pause mode regarding a highly anticipated U.S. IPO that was at one stage set to value the SoftBank-backed company at over $15 billion.

Klarna put its IPO plans on hold last month due to market turbulence caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans. Online ticketing platform StubHub also put its IPO plans on ice.

Prior to the IPO delay, Klarna had been on a marketing blitz touting itself as an artificial intelligence-powered fintech. The company partnered up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI in 2023. A year later, Klarna used OpenAI technology to create an AI customer service assistant.

Last week, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said the company was able to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI.