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Trump’s first 100 days are the worst for the stock market since Nixon

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U.S. President Donald Trump is displayed on a television screen as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 7, 2025 in New York City. 

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office are the worst for the stock market for the start of a president’s four-year term since the 1970s.

The S&P 500’s 7.9% drop from when Trump was sworn into office on Jan. 20 through the April 25 close, is the second worst first 100-day performance going back to the beginning of President Richard Nixon’s second term, according to CFRA Research. Nixon saw the S&P 500 tumble 9.9% in 1973, after a series of economic measures he took to combat inflation resulted in the 1973 to 1975 recession. Nixon would later resign in 1974 because of the Watergate scandal.

On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% in the first 100 days for any president, in data of post-election years going from 1944 through 2020, CFRA showed.

The severity of the stock drawdown to start Trump’s presidency stands in marked contrast to the initial euphoria following his November election victory, when the S&P 500 surged to all-time highs amid confidence the former businessman would bring about much hoped for tax cuts and deregulation. From Election Day to Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 advanced 3.7%, CFRA data shows.

The rally sputtered and then dove sharply as Trump used his early days in office to push forth other campaign promises that investors had taken less seriously, particularly an aggressive approach to trade that many worry will raise inflation and push the U.S. into a recession.

In April, the S&P 500 took a nosedive, losing 10% in just two days and briefly entering bear market territory, following Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement. Trump then walked back part of that announcement, giving countries a 90-day pause to renegotiate deals, that soothed some of investors’ concerns. Many worry there’s further downside ahead.

“Everyone’s looking for this bottom here,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.”

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S&P 500 since Jan. 17 close

The S&P 500, which reached a closing high of 6,144.15 on Feb. 19, closed Friday at 5,525.21. It has erased all post-election gains from November.

To be sure, Trump has two more trading days to cut his losses. His first 100 days technically end on Tuesday. If the S&P 500 rallies this week, he could get close to the third worst start — the 6.9% decline during the first 100 days of George W. Bush in 2001.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Finance

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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