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Trump’s tax cuts may fail to drive much economic boost

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President-elect Donald Trump says renewing tax cuts would turbo-charge investment and boost U.S. economic growth — a pledge that helped propel him to election victory in November.

But new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group, warns that extending tax cuts set to expire next year could do almost nothing to grow the economy. That’s a jarring data point for Republicans framing the case to renew the costly legislation as a way to boost an economy that many voters say isn’t serving them.

Most of the measures up for renewal largely benefit individuals and households, including lower income tax rates and an expanded child tax credit. While those are an easy sell to voters, economists caution on the scale of economic dividend they generate. The bigger spur for investment, they say, would be cuts for corporations.

The business tax breaks in the 2017 law Trump signed in his first term aren’t up for renewal. While he vowed to donors and business leaders gathered at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday that he’d lower the corporate rate to 15%, that pledge is seen as a potentially perilous move with both voters and some Republicans disdainful of more aid for big business.

The CRFB based its findings on an assessment from the Congressional Budget Office, which had earlier looked at the outcome of not extending the tax cuts. That nonpartisan arm of the legislature had found that letting the reductions expire would generate a major boost to public finances, reducing the cumulative fiscal deficit by $3.7 trillion over a decade.

Those bigger revenues would mean less public borrowing, in turn offering a spur to private investment. In the CBO’s analysis, that would help make up for a modest reduction in the labor force from the expiration of the tax cuts. “On net, those two effects largely offset each other, resulting in very small changes to gross domestic product,” the CBO said.

That CBO analysis implies that renewing the tax cuts would also have a similar, modest net effect on growth, in the CRFB’s thinking.

Spending restraint?

Some other models, including those from the Tax Foundation and the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, have shown small amounts of positive economic feedback from renewing the tax cuts — but nowhere near enough to cover the cost of extending the tax cuts, which the CBO projects would amount to $4.6 trillion over a decade.

Still, the outlook from both the CRFB and CBO adds to doubts about the ultimate economic gains, and underscores the pressure lawmakers will be under to find savings to fund the tax cuts. 

Trump has touted swingeing spending cuts, through a proposed Department of Government Efficiency — a nonprofit group to be run by billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy looking to come up with ideas for deep savings in public outlays. In addition, the president-elect has talked of imposing a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods plus 60% on Chinese products, and promoted that as an offset for tax cuts.

That comes as the fiscal backdrop continues to deteriorate.

The U.S. budget deficit hit its highest since the COVID pandemic years in 2024, propelled by increased debt interest costs and higher Social Security and defense spending. The shortfall for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 came to $1.83 trillion, up from $1.7 trillion the previous year, making it the largest on record aside from the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years.

Since then, new figures show the U.S. ran a $624 billion deficit in the first two months of the current fiscal year, equating to borrowing of $10 billion per day — or $2.1 trillion on a rolling basis over the past 12 months, according to the CRFB.

“That’s an astonishing sum especially when considering the huge challenges ahead,” according to Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB. “If we intend to get serious about fiscal responsibility, we might as well start now.” 

GOP priorities

Extending the tax cuts are only one part of Trump’s fiscal platform, which includes plans to slash other taxes across the board — such as those on tips and overtime pay, along with the corporate-rate reduction.

Investors are watching closely for any signs of emerging fiscal stress. While Wall Street economists say extending the tax cuts would be positive for growth, they caution there are other dynamics at play too.

“It would be crucial for Trump 2.0 and Congress to complement the tax cuts with spending cuts,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital. “It’s not just about tax cuts, it should be about a small government, which means lower spending.”

That means there’s less room for broader tax easing given the worsening fiscal outlook, according to David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura.

“If I’m wrong and there are further tax cuts, I doubt that there will truly be many pay-fors. I would instead expect reconciliation instructions to allow for a larger deficit,” he said, referring to the budget reconciliation process that Republicans are planning to use to pass the tax legislation, which will allow them to bypass the need for any Democratic support.

However the debate plays out, the underlying economic landscape of lingering inflation, a surging deficit and potential for slower economic growth all stack up to a very different starting point to the last time major tax cuts were debated. Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale and a former White House economist under President Joe Biden, said that makes for an uncertain outcome.

“Policymakers need to remember that 2024 is not 2017,” she said. “Similar actions could see very different results.”

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SEC’s Semiannual Reporting Proposal Faces Investor Pushback: What CFOs Need to Know

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U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

A proposal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to potentially shift some public companies away from quarterly financial reporting toward a semiannual model is drawing significant pushback from investors, even as it continues moving through the regulatory process. The debate has direct implications for corporate finance teams, auditors, and the broader transparency of U.S. capital markets.

What the SEC Proposed

According to a summary published by accounting advisory firm Cohen & Co., the SEC issued a proposed rule on May 19, 2026, aimed at simplifying financial reporting requirements for many U.S. public companies. The proposal would potentially reduce the frequency of certain mandatory disclosures from quarterly to semiannual, a structural change that has not been made to core U.S. reporting requirements in decades.

The proposal follows an extended debate within U.S. policy circles, with proponents arguing that reduced reporting frequency could lower compliance costs and free up management time for longer-term strategic planning rather than quarter-to-quarter results management.

Why Investors Are Pushing Back

Comment letters submitted in response to the proposal have been extensive, and according to Cohen & Co.’s review of the public record, investors “appear to be largely opposed” to the shift, viewing frequent interim reporting as a core benefit of U.S. capital markets relative to other jurisdictions.

Accounting and law firms have taken a more measured position, generally urging any changes to remain aligned with the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), whose existing disclosure requirements and guidance are built around a quarterly reporting cadence. A shift to semiannual reporting without corresponding changes to FASB guidance could create friction between SEC filing requirements and GAAP-based disclosure expectations.

Lessons From the U.K. Experience

The debate is not without precedent. The United Kingdom moved away from mandatory quarterly reporting for listed companies in 2014, returning to a semiannual disclosure requirement. According to Cohen & Co.’s analysis, that experience offers a cautionary data point: there was no measurable increase in capital expenditure or R&D investment following the change, while analyst coverage of affected companies declined as reliable interim information became less available — a particular risk for smaller and newly public companies that rely on analyst coverage to maintain investor visibility.

Practical Implications for Finance Teams

Beyond the debate over disclosure philosophy, the proposal carries practical complications. Many companies have debt covenants and credit agreements structured around quarterly financial delivery; a shift to semiannual reporting could require renegotiating those terms. Reduced reporting frequency would also extend the “window of market silence” between disclosures, a factor that governance and investor-relations teams would need to manage carefully to avoid information asymmetry.

Separately, and unrelated to the reporting-frequency debate, the SEC and FASB have continued finalizing more routine updates this year. New Accounting Standards Updates are taking effect for December 31, 2026, fiscal year-ends covering income tax disclosures, credit loss measurement, induced debt conversions, and stock compensation, according to Eide Bailly’s review of 2026 ASU activity. Additional guidance on paid-in-kind dividends and environmental credits is also on the near-term horizon.

What to Watch Next

The semiannual reporting proposal remains in the comment and review phase, and no final rule has been adopted as of this writing. Finance leaders should monitor the SEC’s regulatory agenda for further movement, while treating the current quarterly reporting requirement as the operative standard until any final rule is issued and an effective date is set.

Given the extent of investor opposition documented in the comment file, a full shift to mandatory semiannual reporting appears more likely to result in either a scaled-back compromise or continued study rather than swift adoption — though the SEC’s ultimate direction remains uncertain.

 

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AI-Driven Automation and Continuous Accounting Frameworks

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The accounting profession is undergoing a fundamental structural transition as enterprise finance departments shift from periodic month-end closes toward automated continuous accounting models. By integrating specialized machine learning algorithms directly into enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms, chief accounting officers are transforming financial reporting from a retrospective exercise into a real-time operational asset.

The Shift from Periodic Close to Continuous Financial Reporting
Traditional accounting workflows heavily relied on manual data reconciliation, spreadsheet calculations, and multi-week closing cycles at the end of each fiscal period. In contrast, continuous accounting frameworks utilize automated software agents to process, validate, and post transactional data in real time as business activities occur.

Automated bank reconciliation tools cross-reference incoming bank feeds, invoice records, and purchase orders automatically. By resolving transactional variances instantly throughout the month, corporate accounting teams eliminate the traditional workload spikes associated with quarterly and annual closes.

Machine Learning in Audit Trails and Anomaly Detection
Advanced natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning tools are redefining internal audit and financial control environments. Automated systems analyze 100% of general ledger entries, identifying anomalous transactions, duplicate payments, and unauthorized journal entries in real time.

Rather than relying on random statistical sampling, corporate internal auditors can focus their attention on high-risk flags automatically surfaced by algorithmic monitoring platforms. This continuous risk assessment strengthens internal controls over financial reporting (ICFR) and significantly reduces fraud risk.

Evolving Roles for Accounting Professionals
As routine data entry and manual reconciliation tasks become fully automated, the skill set required for accounting professionals is shifting toward data analysis, system design, and strategic business advisory.
– Systems Governance: Accountants are increasingly responsible for monitoring algorithmic accuracy and managing data integration pipelines.
– Business Partnership: Finance professionals leverage real-time financial dashboards to advise operational leaders on margin management and working capital allocation.
– Regulatory Compliance Management: Accounting teams utilize automated platforms to ensure compliance with dynamic tax codes and international accounting standards.

Core Implementation Recommendations
1. Deploy Automated Reconciliation Tools: Integrate continuous transaction processing modules into existing enterprise ERP architectures.
2. Establish Algorithmic Governance Controls: Implement strict internal testing protocols to ensure automated accounting rules comply with GAAP/IFRS standards.
3. Reskill Accounting Teams: Invest in training finance staff on data analytics, workflow automation, and predictive financial modeling.

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Accounting

Global ESG Reporting Standards and Double Materiality Compliance

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Corporate accounting departments face expanding reporting expectations as international sustainability disclosure standards achieve regulatory enforcement across major global jurisdictions. Chief Accounting Officers (CAOs) and corporate controllers are establishing rigorous internal accounting controls to treat Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics with the same data precision, auditability, and governance as traditional financial statements.

Regulatory Harmonization Under Global Sustainability Frameworks
The implementation of standardized sustainability reporting frameworks—notably rules established by international sustainability accounting boards—has created unified expectations for public and large private enterprises. Corporations must report standardized metrics covering greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1, 2, and material Scope 3), energy utilization, workforce demographics, and supply chain governance.

In Europe and other participating international jurisdictions, double materiality principles are mandatory. Under double materiality, organizations must report both how external sustainability risks impact corporate financial performance, and how internal corporate operations affect surrounding environmental and social structures.

Integrating Sustainability Metrics into Core ERP Systems
To provide auditable non-financial data, enterprise organizations are integrating specialized carbon accounting and ESG management platforms directly into core ERP systems. Automated data collectors capture energy utility invoices, logistics fuel consumption metrics, and vendor compliance records in real time.

Establishing automated, traceable data pipelines ensures that non-financial reporting is supported by clear audit trails. This structured approach allows external financial auditors to provide reasonable assurance on sustainability disclosures during annual corporate reporting cycles.

Financial Impacts and Capital Market Disclosure
Accurate ESG reporting directly influences corporate cost of capital and institutional credit ratings. Commercial lenders and institutional asset managers systematically incorporate sustainability metrics into risk pricing models. Companies that demonstrate transparent, verifiable progress in operational energy efficiency and climate risk mitigation benefit from expanded access to green bond markets and lower debt pricing.

Action Steps for Accounting Leadership
1. Implement Double Materiality Frameworks: Conduct comprehensive assessments to identify material financial and operational sustainability metrics.
2. Build Auditable Non-Financial Data Pipelines: Automate ESG data collection within core accounting software to ensure data integrity.
3. Align Sustainability with Annual Financial Filings: Prepare non-financial disclosures concurrently with financial statements to satisfy regulatory audit expectations.

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