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Trump’s triple-digit tariff essentially cuts off most trade with China, says economist

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U.S. President Donald Trump attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 10, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

President Donald Trump’s tariff increase on imports from China would basically end most trade between that country and the U.S., according to economist Erica York.

“It depends on how narrowly the tariff is applied or how broadly it’s applied, but generally if you get north of a triple-digit tariff, you are cutting off most trade,” the vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Thursday. “There may still be some things without any substitutes that companies just have to foot the bill, but for the most part, that cuts it off.”

Her remarks came amid the market wiping out some of its monster gains seen on Wednesday. The market accelerated declines on Thursday once a White House official confirmed to CNBC that the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods now stands at 145%. That total includes the recent hike to 125% from 84% that Trump announced Wednesday as well as a 20% fentanyl-related duty that the president had previously put into effect.

On Wednesday, Trump announced that he’s temporarily reducing the tariff rates on imports from most countries, except China, to 10% for 90 days. In a Cabinet meeting Thursday, the president declined to rule out the possibility of extending the 90-day tariff reprieve.

Taking into account the China tariffs, the baseline 10% levies still in place and other sector tariffs, Trump has still taken the country into its most protectionist stance in decades, even with the pause.

“It’ll take the average tariff rate still to highs that we haven’t seen since the 1940s, so this is major,” the economist added. “It’s huge cost increases. It’s an economic hit. It’s clearly not setting us on a very good path.”

The Tax Foundation estimates that all of the new Trump tariffs will lead to an increase in federal tax revenues of $171.6 billion for this year. That would make Trump’s tariffs the biggest tax increase since 1993, more than the hikes under both former presidents George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama, the institution revealed.

China has said it won’t flinch if trade dynamics were to escalate into a trade war. Just hours prior to Trump’s tariff pause announcement, China raised its retaliatory levies on U.S. imports to 84% from 34%, which went into effect Thursday.

Even with Trump’s reversal, York stressed that the market isn’t in the clear just yet, saying “it’s not like the threat went away entirely.”

Economics

Trump greenlights Nippon merger with US Steel

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A tugboat pushes a barge near the U.S. Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 9, 2024.

Justin Merriman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump said Friday that U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will form a “partnership,” after the Japanese steelmaker’s bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares jumped more than 24%.

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Economics

A court resurrects the United States Institute of Peace

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The night the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) was taken over, March 17th, staffers from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) walked round its headquarters smoking cigars and drinking beers while they dismantled the signage and disabled the computer systems. The takeover of the USIP building in Washington, DC, earlier that afternoon was one of the more notable moments of President Donald Trump’s revolution in the capital, because the think-tank is not actually part of the executive branch. The Institute’s board and president, George Moose, a veteran diplomat, were summarily fired. He and other senior staff were ultimately forced out of the building at the behest of three different police agencies. Then a DOGE staffer handed over the keys to the building to the federal government.

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Economics

How much worse could America’s measles outbreak get?

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AMERICA’S MEASLES outbreak is alarming for several reasons. What began as a handful of cases in Texas in January has now surpassed 800 across several states, with many more cases probably going unreported. It is the worst outbreak in 30 years and has already killed three people. Other smaller outbreaks bring the total number of cases recorded in 2025 so far to over 1,000. But above all, public-health experts worry that the situation now is a sign of worse to come. Falling vaccination rates and cuts to public-health services could make such outbreaks more frequent and impossible to curb, eventually making measles endemic in the country again.

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