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U.S. economy is worse than thought with 1.2 million fewer jobs — what that means for the Fed

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A construction worker is shown on the job site at a multi-unit residential housing project in Encinitas, California, U.S., July 28, 2025.

Mike Blake | Reuters

With job growth tanking and the economy wobbling, pressure is on for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates, with markets now expecting a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for the year preceding March 2025. Downward revisions since the cutoff date in that report suggest that the reduction in payroll growth has been actually around 1.2 million for the past 16 months.

That’s a number sure to get the Federal Open Market Committee’s attention when it meets next week and could add fire to President Donald Trump’s repeated assertions that the central bank has been “too late” in making policy adjustments.

“Had Fed officials had that data available in real time, policy rates would be lower today,” wrote Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst, referencing the BLS “benchmark” payrolls revisions.

Hollenhorst said the data actually “could justify” a jumbo half percentage point cut when the FOMC releases its decision Sept. 17. However, he expects Chair Jerome Powell “will have an easier time building consensus around a [quarter-point] rate cut next week, with signals that rate cuts will continue at upcoming meetings, including potentially in October.”

Market expectations have shifted notably as trouble signs have built around employment.

Traders now are not only pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed lowers by a quarter point next week, they also are allowing for a slight chance of a half-point reduction. They now firmly see cuts at each of the three remaining meetings, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The gauge uses prices on 30-day fed funds futures contracts to determine market-implied odds for rate moves. Just a week ago, markets were assigning only a modest chance for three cuts this year.

Watching the numbers

While the Fed is not bound by the market, it closely monitors rate expectations as part of its data dashboard.

“The U.S. economy barely has any jobs right now and it’s been that way for a long time,” said Heather Long, now the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union and prior to that a Fed reporter for the Washington Post. “The Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates in September, October and December, and the White House needs to quickly finalize a trade deal with China. Businesses aren’t going to invest and hire more people again until there is more certainty.”

To be sure, Fed officials may feel they can be deliberate in their actions as the economic data are still muddy and subject to the changing winds from Trump’s tariffs.

Moreover, there’s a chance that current data overstate the labor market’s troubles.

For instance, Goldman Sachs disputed the benchmark payroll revisions, saying the total reduction based on the firm’s proprietary model and high-frequency data is more like 550,000, or a bit lower than the year before. The firm further said that the BLS revisions “provide limited information about the current state of the labor market” thought it acknowledged that conditions have “softened materially.”

However, the report follows news that nonfarm payrolls rose just 22,000 in August. Moreover, a New York Fed survey found a record low in sentiment among workers who believe they could find another job if they lost their current position. Other surveys also have showed heightened worries.

From the White House, the data reignited calls for rate cuts.

“Much like the BLS has failed the American people, so has Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell — who has officially run out of excuses and must cut the rates now,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

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Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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