Finance
UniCredit’s Orcel could still sweeten his bid and take on a double M&A offensive
Published
1 year agoon
Andrea Orcel, chief executive officer of Unicredit, in London, UK, on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Divided between two takeover courtships, UniCredit‘s Andrea Orcel still has room to sweeten his bid for Italy’s Banco BPM, analysts say, while political turmoil stalls a deal with Germany’s Commerzbank.
Once a key architect in the controversial 2007 takeover and later break-up of Dutch bank ABN Amro, Orcel revisited his ambitions for cross-border consolidation with the September announcement of a surprise stake build in Commerzbank. Until recently, the latter had been the subject of speculation as a potential merger partner for Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank.
Amid resistance from the German government — and turbulence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition — UniCredit also last month turned its eye to Banco BPM, with a 10 billion-euro ($10.5 billion) offer that the Italian peer said was delivered on “unusual terms” and does not reflect its profitability and growth potential.
Along the way, Orcel drew frowns from the Italian administration, with Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warning that “the safest way to lose a war is engaging on two fronts,” according to Italian newswire Ansa.
Analysts say that the spurned UniCredit — whose CET1 ratio, reflecting the bank’s financial strength and resilience, stood above 16% in the first three quarters of this year — can still improve its domestic bid.
“There is scope for increasing the [Banco BPM] offer,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst and Morningstar, told CNBC.
However, he warned of “limited” room to do so. “Think more than 10% [increase], you are probably going to dilute shareholder earnings.”
UniCredit’s starting proposal was for an all-stock deal that would merge two of Italy’s largest lenders, but offered just 6.657 euros for each share.
Both Scholtz and Filippo Alloatti, senior credit analyst at Federated Hermes, said that UniCredit could sweeten the proposition by tacking on a cash component.
“Remember, that’s the second attempt from Orcel to buy [Banco] BPM … I don’t think there’ll be a third attempt. I think that either they close [the deal] now, or probably he walks. So I believe a cash component could be on the table,” Alloatti told CNBC. Orcel last month labeled Banco BPM as a “historical target” — stoking the flames of media reports that UniCredit had previously sought a domestic union back in 2022.
The Italian stage was primed for M&A activity early last month, after Banco BPM acquired a 5% holding in Monte dei Paschi — the world’s oldest lender and another former takeover target of UniCredit, until talks collapsed in 2021 — when Rome sought to reduce its stake in the bailed-out bank.
Critically, Scholtz noted, UniCredit’s offer “puts [Banco] BPM into a difficult position,” triggering a passivity rule that impedes it from any action that might hinder the bid without shareholder approval — and could stifle Banco BPM’s own early-November ambitions to acquire control of fund manager Anima Holding, which also owns a 4% stake in Monte dei Paschi.
Offense-defense
A consolidation offensive could be UniCredit’s best defense in an environment of easing interest rates.
“Multi-year long restructuring, balance sheet de-risking and materially improved loss absorption capacity” propelled UniCredit to a BBB+ long-term debt rating from Fitch Ratings in October, above that of Italy’s own sovereign bonds.
But the lender must now contend with an environment of loosening monetary policy, where it is “more exposed to changes in interest rates due to its relatively limited presence in asset management and bancassurance,” Alessandro Boratti, analyst at Scope Ratings, wrote last month.
Both takeover prospects hedge some of that exposure. A Commerzbank union in Germany, where UniCredit operates through its HypoVereinsbank division, could create synergies in capital markets, advisors, payments and trade finance activity, JPMorgan analysts signaled in a November note. They added that such a union would produce a “limited” advantage in funding, as the two banks’ spreads already trade closely.
Closer to home, Scholtz notes, Banco BPM offers complementary strength in asset management. Alloatti said that absorbing a domestic peer is also one of the Italian lender’s only remaining options to take a leading role on the home stage.
“There really isn’t much they can buy in Italy to bridge the gap with [Italy’s largest bank] Intesa. Probably Banco BPM … that’s why they looked at it in the past,” Alloatti said. “Banco BPM is the only bank they could potentially buy to get somewhat closer to Intesa.” Intesa Sanpaolo is currently Italy’s largest bank by total assets.
Approaching Banco BPM, KBW Analyst Hugo Cruz told CNBC in emailed comments, also has the “added value” of signaling to German shareholders that UniCredit has other M&A options available to it. He nevertheless stressed that the domestic acquisition bid is likely “mainly a reaction to the acceleration of the consolidation process in the Italian banking system,” triggered by Banco BPM’s acquisition of its Monte dei Paschi interest.
Orcel may need to decide between going big abroad or staying home, with analysts pointing to high integration costs and an extensive toll on management time if UniCredit attempts to absorb both of its takeover targets.
Ultimately, KBW’s Cruz said, the Italian lender — which notched its 15th consecutive quarter of growth this fall and has seen a roughly 61% hike in its share price in the year to date — can choose to stand alone.
“I don’t think Mr. Orcel has to do a bank acquisition. He already stated that any acquisition will need to add value compared to [UniCredit]’s standalone strategy, and if no acquisition the bank will continue with the same strategy which already included a high level of capital distribution for shareholders and which targeted the usage of excess capital by end of 2027,” he said, noting that the Italian lender abstained from bids previously “because it was still under restructuring and did not have the acquisition currency.”
“We would hope that they would have the discipline to walk away from both deals” if they do not generate return to shareholders, Morningstar’s Scholtz added.
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Finance
Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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Finance
Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 17, 2026

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
Finance
Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 15, 2026
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.
Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.
“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.
“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”
The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.
JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.
“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”
‘Attack mode’
Still, the CEO warned that risks extend beyond any single institution, given the interconnected nature of the financial system.
“That doesn’t mean everything that banks rely on is that well protected,” Dimon said. “Banks… are attached to exchanges and all these other things that create other layers of risk.”
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the industry has long been aware that AI cuts both ways in cybersecurity.
“These tools can make it easier to find vulnerabilities, but then also potentially be deployed by bad actors in attack mode,” Barnum said on the earnings call. Recent advances from Anthropic and others have simply intensified an existing trend, he said.
Dimon also said that while advanced AI tools are important, old-school cybersecurity practices remain essential.
“A lot of it is hygiene… how do you protect your data? How do you protect your networks, your routers, your hardware, changing your passcode?” he said. “Doing all those things right dramatically reduces the risk.”
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.
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