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US first quarter GDP slows more than expected, but inflation keeps rising

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The economy is still solid, but growth is slowing, the latest GDP reading shows. (iStock)

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) dropped faster than expected in the first quarter, but a key metric used by the Federal Reserve to measure inflation kept rising, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.6% for the January-through-March period after rising 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate released Thursday. Economic forecasts had called for a deceleration of growth over the previous month, with the expectation that the economy would expand by 2.4%, according to a Reuters report.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. This slowdown was partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment.  

“We knew the economy was weaning itself off government support, we just didn’t figure that would cause GDP to drop this quickly,” said Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist. “With government spending down and consumer spending moderating as Covid-era supports disappear, GDP fell below all estimates. 

“But consumers continue to spend at a healthy rate, especially as evidenced by big spending on imports, which drove down the topline GDP number,” Fick continued. “First quarter GDP is often squirrelly and heavily revised – just look at last year’s – so all-in-all, this shouldn’t be taken as a fundamental downshift in the economy.”

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Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut rates

A slower economy is not likely to accelerate the timeline for interest rate cuts since core inflation continued to rise.  

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy prices — a key metric the Federal Reserve tracks to measure inflation — increased by 3.7% after rising to 2% in the fourth quarter. 

“Inflation will likely resume its downward trend, slowly inching toward the Fed’s 2% target,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “But, until the Fed gains greater confidence in the downward direction of inflation, it is not likely to lower rates and overall investments in the housing sector will stay tepid, as a result.”

Since July, the central bank has kept its policy rate in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. Following its March meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rate cuts were still on the table for this year, but the central bank revised projections of rate cuts to just three this year. Powell said that the Fed remained committed to bringing inflation down to a 2% target rate and warned that lowering rates too soon would risk bringing inflation back while holding back too long posed a risk to economic growth. 

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Americans are less worried about inflation, recession risks

Higher interest rates and borrowing costs have dampened consumers’ spending on bigger-ticket items like housing and cars. However, Americans have largely gotten used to higher prices and feel better equipped to handle their finances, according to a recent Santander survey.  

Additionally, worries about an economic recession have taken a backseat for many Americans as they begin to accept the high-interest rate environment as the new normal. The number of respondents who expected a recession in the next 12 months dropped from 69% to 60%.

However, consumers have had to make deep budget cuts to survive in a high-cost environment – 67% of respondents said they cut out significant purchases such as vacations, vehicles and home repairs, according to the survey.

“While middle-income households have had to navigate higher prices due to inflation, it is encouraging to see consumers taking positive steps to manage their finances and adjust their household budgets,” Santander CEO Tim Wennes said.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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