Connect with us

Finance

Wall Street starts to cut China GDP forecasts on U.S. trade tensions

Published

on

Trucks line up at the container terminal in the Longtan Port area of Nanjing Port, Jiangsu province, China on the evening of April 8, 2025. 

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Citi on Tuesday became one of the first investment firms to lower its China growth forecast on escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

In less than a week, U.S. tariffs on goods from China have more than doubled, while Beijing has hit back with more duties and restrictions on U.S. businesses.

Citi analysts cut their forecast for China’s gross domestic product to 4.2% this year, down by 0.5 percentage point, as they see “little scope for a deal between the U.S. and China after recent escalations.”

Natixis on Monday also told reporters the firm was cutting its China GDP forecast to 4.2% this year, down from 4.7% previously.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have not yet cut their forecasts, but warned this week of increasing downside risks to their expectation — currently both predict 4.5% growth.

China in March announced its official growth target would be “around 5%” for 2025, but stressed that it would not be easy to reach the goal.

China’s escalation toolbox ultimately limited, China Beige Book’s Shehzad Qazi says

“The main issue is that uncertainty for the economy is rising,” Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said Tuesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He noted that visibility on future growth had dropped significantly, while U.S. tariffs might keep on rising.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 50% in tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. will take effect Wednesday after Beijing raised duties on all U.S. products by 34%. As part of its plan for sweeping tariffs on multiple countries, the White House last week had said it would add a 34% levy on Chinese goods.

Combined with two rounds of 10% tariff increases earlier this year, new U.S. tariffs on Chinese products in 2025 have reached 104%.

Diminishing impact from new tariffs

While an initial 50% increase in duties could reduce Chinese GDP by 1.5 percentage points, a subsequent 50% increase would drag it down by a smaller 0.9 percentage point, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Tuesday.

Chinese exports to the U.S. account for about 3 percentage points of China’s total GDP, Goldman said, noting that includes 2.35 percentage points of domestic value add and 0.65 percentage point of associated manufacturing investment.

China is expected to report March trade data on Monday, and first quarter GDP on April 16.

Nomura now expects China’s exports to drop by 2% this year, worse than their previous expectation of no change, the firm’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Tuesday.

But he kept his 2025 GDP forecast of 4.5%. “Given the extraordinarily fluid situation, it is impossible to reasonably estimate the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war on China’s economy,” he said, adding that his forecast already accounted for significantly worse tensions.

China this week signaled it could cut interest rates or increase fiscal spending to bolster growth in the near future.

Diminishing impact from tariffs can also feed into Beijing’s calculus that U.S. leverage is likely reaching a ceiling, Yue Su, principal economist, China, at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in an email.

“From Beijing’s perspective, the strategic gains of a strong retaliation now appear to outweigh the associated economic costs,” she said.

Continue Reading

Finance

Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Published

on

Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

Continue Reading

Finance

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Published

on

Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

Continue Reading

Finance

Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

Published

on

Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

Continue Reading

Trending