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‘We haven’t seen this kind of debt since the Napoleonic Wars’

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WEF president: Gaza crisis is at the 'core' of Middle East tensions

Borge Brende, president of the World Economic Forum, gave a stark outlook for the global economy saying the world faces a decade of low growth if the right economic measures are not applied.

Speaking Sunday at WEF’s “Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development” in Saudi Arabia, he warned that global debt ratios are close to levels not seen since the 1820s and there was a “stagflation” risk for advanced economies.

“The global growth [estimate] this year is around 3.2 [%]. It’s not bad, but it’s not what we were used to — the trend growth used to be 4% for decades,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy, adding that there was a risk of a slowdown like that seen in the 1970s in some major economies.

“We cannot get into a trade war, we still have to trade with each other,” he explained when asked about avoiding a period of low growth.

“Trade will change and global value chains — there will be some more near-shoring and friend-shoring — but we shouldn’t lose the baby with the bathwater … Then we have to address the global debt situation. We haven’t seen this kind of debt since the Napoleonic Wars, we are getting close to 100% of the global GDP in debt,” he said.

He said governments needed to consider how to reduce that debt and take the right fiscal measures without getting into a situation where it kicks off a recession. He also motioned persistent inflationary pressures and that generative artificial intelligence could be an opportunity for the developing world.

Borge Brende, president of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

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His warning chimes with a recent report from the International Monetary Fund which noted that global public debt had edged up to 93% of GDP last year, and was still 9 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels. The IMF projected that global public debt could near 100 % of GDP by the end of the decade.

The Fund also singled out the high debt levels in China and the United States, saying loose fiscal policy in the latter puts pressure on rates and the dollar which then pushes up funding costs around the world —exacerbating pre-existing fragilities.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast slightly, saying the world economy had proven “surprisingly resilient” despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts. It now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast.

WEF’s Brende said Sunday that the biggest risk for the global economy is now “the geopolitical recession that we are faced with,” highlighting recent Iran-Israel tensions.

“There is so much unpredictability, and you can easily get out of control. If Israel and Iran escalated that conflict, we could have seen an oil price of $150 overnight. And that would of course be very damaging for the global economy,” he said.

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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