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Weak EU growth threatening bloc’s geopolitical relevance

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Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi during the press conference at the Multifunctional Hall of the Prime Minister on July 12, 2022 in Rome, Italy.

Massimo Di Vita | Mondadori Portfolio | Getty Images

Economic growth in the European Union continues to lag behind that of China and the United States, threatening the bloc’s goals of bolstering its geopolitical relevance, social equality and decarbonization, according to a report from economist and politician Mario Draghi.

The keenly awaited report led by Draghi — who previously served as prime minister of Italy and president of the European Central Bank during the euro zone debt crisis — found these EU ambitions were now in question amid weakening productivity growth that is slowing overall economic expansion in the region.

The wide-ranging report lays out major challenges that the EU must address through a new industrial strategy, which would include reducing energy prices, raising competitiveness and strengthening defense investment.

The EU must also adapt to a world where “dependencies are becoming vulnerabilities and it can no longer rely on others for its security,” the report found, citing the EU’s dependence on China for critical minerals, and China’s reliance on the EU for absorbing its industrial overcapacity.

The EU’s high level of trade openness will leave it exposed, if trends toward supply chain autonomy accelerate, the report continues. Roughly 40% of Europe’s imports come from a small number of suppliers which are difficult to replace, and around half of this volume originates from countries with which the bloc is not “strategically aligned,” it says.

“The EU will need to develop a genuine “foreign economic policy” that coordinates preferential trade agreements and direct investment with resource-rich nations, the building up of stockpiles in selected critical areas, and the creation of industrial partnerships to secure the supply chain of key technologies,” the report states.

The EU will need to ensure dependencies do not increase and look to “harness the potential of domestic resources through mining, recycling and innovation in alternative materials.”

Other goals include full implementation of the single market, which includes 440 million consumers and 23 million companies, by reducing trade friction. The bloc also seeks to ensure its competition policy does not become a “barrier to Europe’s goals,” particularly in the technology sector. The European coalition must also facilitate “massive investment needs unseen for half a century in Europe,” through a mix of private finance and public support. The EU is meanwhile suffering an “innovation deficit” which must be tackled through reforms, the report states.

The EU’s total investment-to-GDP rate will have to rise by around 5 percentage points of EU GDP per year to levels last seen in the 1960s and 70s to meet defense, digitalization and decarbonization targets, according to the study.

On steps to mobilize private finance, the report recommends transitioning the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) from a co-ordinator of national regulators into a single regulator for all EU securities markets able to focus on overarching goals, similar to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The report was commissioned last year by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was elected for a second five-year term in July and is set to appoint new Commissioners this week.

The findings “will trigger a crucial debate for the future of the EU/Eurozone, but there is no need to hold your breath,” Lorenzo Codogno, founder of Lorenzo Codogno Macro Advisors, said in emailed comments.

“Nothing will happen until the new Commission becomes fully operational, and even after that, the tricky, fragmented and fragile political situation across member states makes it challenging to obtain the political support necessary for action. Still, some surprises cannot be ruled out, and thus, the political debate that will follow needs to be monitored carefully,” he said.

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Republicans have a plan to add trillions of dollars to the national debt

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MUCH AS he may wish to, Donald Trump cannot govern through imperial decree alone. Congress is drafting legislation to remake the tax system and alter federal spending—something only it can do. On May 12th Republicans unveiled their new plan. Unfortunately it is a mess.

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CPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%

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Customers line up at the check out booth on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.

The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago.

Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS.

After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.

Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.

Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.

While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.

In his much-awaited “Liberation Day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations.

Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year.

Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.

The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which are seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation.

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German business leaders tell new government: It’s time to deliver

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TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.

Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”

Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.

The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.

The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.

“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”

Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.

“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.

Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”

The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.

“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.

A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.

“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.

Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”

09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.

Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.

“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.

Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”

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The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.

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