Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., Sept. 17, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stock market growth that seems impervious to tariffs, politics and a moribund jobs picture is in turn powering consumer spending and putting a floor under an economy that many expected to be teetering on the brink of recession by now.
Economic data this week painted a surprisingly bright picture of recent trends.
Consumer spending in August was stronger than expected and so was income. Companies and households continue to order big-ticket items while inflation has been relatively soft. Even housing showed signs of life, with new sales hitting a three-year high in August.
Previously, such trends had been powered by trillions in stimulus from both congressional spending and low interest rates and liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.
But the narrative now is shifting towards the ever-popular wealth effect coming from Wall Street and a succession of new highs in major stock indexes despite lofty valuations.
“I do think that goes to the bounce in the stock market and the wealth effect,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Friday on CNBC. “I think all of the spending is coming from the well-to-do high-income high-net-worth households that are seeing their stock portfolios are up and they’re feeling a lot better off and they’re spending.”
Indeed, the market has seen a stair-step climb higher this year, boosted by massive AI spending, no doubt, but also rallying thanks to strength in big industrial companies and communications giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 9%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is up 23%.
Dow and Nasdaq
Consumers are almost always happier when stocks are up and unemployment is low, as is currently the case. However, sentiment this year as measured by the University of Michigan has been in a steady decline, falling 23% since January when President Donald Trump took office.
A double-edged sword
The Michigan gauge fell 5.3% in September, though survey Director Joanne Hsu noted an anomaly: “Sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.”
That makes sense considering the stock market has set a succession of new records this month. Being that the top 10% of earners in the U.S. own 87% of the market, according to St. Louis Fed data, asset holders have reason to be pleased.
That’s also, according to Zandi, a reason why the economic strength could be built on sand.
“The economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason,” he said. “People start seeing red on their screens and not green on their screens and the savings rate goes up not down. In the current context of no job growth, that’s recession.”
Concerns over the stock market primarily focus on valuations, with the S&P 500 currently trading at 22.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, well above both the five- (19.9) and 10-year (18.6) trends, according to FactSet.
For all that, recent economic data indicates few recession pressures.
Consumer spending in August increased 0.6%, according to Commerce Department numbers released Friday that were better than expected. Spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.4%, indicating consumers are still able to weather price increases.
On inflation, the annual rate is still well in excess of the Fed’s 2% target, with core holding at 2.9%. But monthly increases are about in line with previous trends and Wall Street forecasts, putting the Fed on target almost certainly for an October rate cut and perhaps another when it meets again in December.
“The economy has continued to surprise to the upside and despite the negativity captured in surveys and expressed by commentators, actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.
More good news, more danger
There was other good economic news this week as well.
Gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to a revision Thursday that was half a percentage point higher than previously thought. Again, the reason for the upside surprise was because consumer spending was considerably stronger than the prior estimate. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed raised its GDP tracking estimate for the third quarter, pushing the expected growth rate up to 3.9%, or 0.6 percentage point higher than the last update a week ago.
Also, durable goods orders unexpectedly increased while new home sales surged 20%. All that came as a rise in jobless claims a couple weeks ago turned out to be a blip, with layoffs remaining low, though payroll growth has also been static at best.
Even if it’s primarily consumers at the top end driving the growth, the macroeconomic numbers are at the very least telling a story of stability.
“Often, when people feel pessimistic about the near-future economy, they begin reigning in spending, but that hasn’t been the case thus far,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer site NerdWallet. “In fact, the strength of the consumer is credited with keeping the economy strong for the past handful of years, despite high inflation, high [interest] rates and great uncertainty.”
However, Renter also noted the knife’s edge that the economy sits on, with a broad swath of consumers not joining the stock market party and thus feeling down, and overall sentiment levels consistent with recessions.
“Wealth provides some insulation from perceived economic volatility, and investors have been largely doing OK,” she said. “Consumers are attuned to the current economic risks — inflation and labor market weakness. This could be due to first-hand experiences — food prices rose significantly last month — or because they’re on edge from headlines tracking key economic data. In any case, people aren’t feeling great about the economy, their place within it or where it’s all headed.”
On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.
How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister
Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.
If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.
Why No Election Was Required
A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.
This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.
The King’s Constitutional Role
After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.
Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.
Could an Election Still Happen?
Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.
In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.
What This Means for the UK
The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.
Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.
On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.
According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.
The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.
For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.
The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.
The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.
Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.
For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.