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What a Trump presidency could mean for Europe’s economy

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Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.

Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With markets in recent weeks cranking up their bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election, Goldman Sachs economists say that another term for the former U.S. leader could have “profound implications” for the euro area’s economy.

“Our baseline estimates point to a sizeable GDP [gross domestic product] hit of around 1% with a modest 0.1pp [percentage point] lift to inflation,” Goldman Sachs’ Jari Stehn and James Moberly said in a note published Friday before the Saturday assassination attempt.

“Trump’s re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area.”

Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures, and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained.

Trump says he was grazed by a bullet Saturday during an attempted assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania. The shooting left one attendee and the gunman dead, and two more attendees still in critical but stable condition.

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Some analysts have suggested the events could boost Trump’s chances of taking back the White House in the U.S. election later this year, and certain assets have already rallied Monday with markets pricing in that possibility.

Even before Saturday, the likelihood of a second Trump presidency had risen following a poor performance from President Joe Biden in a presidential debate a few weeks ago. Goldman Sachs said in its note Friday that betting markets were assigning a probability of around 60% for a Trump win in November, with some reports over the weekend that this figure had risen again.

Trade tensions

Trump’s trade policy, and the uncertainty around it, could be one factor that impacts Europe’s economy, just as it did during his last presidency, analysts Stehn and Moberly said.

Trade tensions between the U.S. administration and the European Union surged during Trump’s last term. Tariffs on European steel and aluminum were introduced by the U.S., which led the EU to counter with duties on U.S. goods. There were monthslong concerns about whether other sectors like autos would see higher duties, which rattled market sentiment.

“Trump has pledged to impose an across-the-board 10% tariff on all U.S. imports (including from Europe), which would likely lead to a sharp increase in trade policy uncertainty, as it did in 2018-19,” the research note from the Wall Street bank said.

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Such uncertainty historically has a significant, persistent impact on economic activity in the euro area, the economists said. In 2018 and 2019, uncertainty about trade policy reduced industrial production in the euro area by around 2%, they estimated.

Some countries like Germany are expected to be more heavily impacted as they rely more on industrial production, according to Stehn and Moberly.

Trade tensions could also lead to the euro area’s gross domestic product taking a hit, and while uncertainty about trade policy could see prices fall, higher tariffs could push them back up, according to the economists.

Defense and security pressures

Trump is also expected to lower, or entirely cut, U.S. aid for Ukraine and has suggested that he would not help the countries in the NATO military alliance that do not meet the 2% defense spending requirement.

Meeting both the 2% requirement and potentially making up for at least some of the U.S. financial support for Ukraine could impact Europe’s economy, according to Goldman Sachs.

“European countries could therefore be required to fund an additional 0.5% of GDP of defence spending per year during a second Trump term,” the research note said, adding that growth from additional military spending is set to be modest.

Geopolitical uncertainty and risks could also emerge as a result of Trump’s defense policy toward Europe, and his stance on NATO, particularly if it raises questions about how committed the U.S. is to the military alliance, Stehn and Moberly explained.

Spillover from domestic policies

The third way in which Trump’s policies could impact the euro area economy is through U.S. domestic plans, such as tax cuts and less regulation.

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Economics

Companies already raise prices or plan to, blaming tariffs, data shows

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Johnson & Johnson manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina.

Courtesy: Johnson & Johnson

Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows a majority of companies have passed along at least some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs onto customers, the latest in a growing body of evidence indicating the policy change is likely to stretch consumers’ wallets.

In May, about 77% of service firms that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs tariffs passed through at least at least some of the rise to clients, according to a survey conducted by the New York Fed that was released Wednesday. Around 75% of manufacturers surveyed said the same.

In fact, more than 30% of manufacturers and roughly 45% of service firms passed through all of the higher cost to their customers, according to the New York Fed’s statics.

Price hikes happened quickly after Trump slapped steep levies on trading partners, whether large or small. More than 35% of manufacturers and nearly 40% of service firms raised prices within a week of seeing tariff-related cost increases, according to the survey.

Trump announced in early April that he would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories, sending the stock market into a tailspin. But Trump soon rolled back or paused those levies for three months, unleashing the equity market to claw back most of its initial losses.

July deadline

Companies and investors alike are now looking to a July 9 deadline for the return of those suspended tariffs, coping in the meantime with continued confusion regarding to trade policy. The U.S. has already announced one trade deal with the United Kingdom, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said this week that the Trump administration is “close to the finish line” on some other agreements.

The New York Fed’s survey is the latest in a salvo of data releases and anecdotal reports that have shown companies’ willingness to pass down cost increases despite pressure from Trump not to do so.

Nearly nine out of 10 of the 300 CEOs surveyed in May said they have raised prices or planned to soon, according to data released last week by Chief Executive Group and AlixPartners. About seven out of 10 chief executives surveyed in May said they plan to hike prices by at least 2.5%.

Corporate executives have been careful in how they speak about the impact of Trump’s policies on their business, especially when it comes to trade, to avoid getting caught in the president’s crosshairs. Last month, for example, Trump warned Walmart in a social media post that the retailer should “eat the tariffs” and that he would “be watching.”

Consequently, survey data and anonymous commentary offer insights into how American business leaders are discussing the tariffs behind closed doors.

“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of Covid-19,” one respondent said in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey published Monday.

Another respondent said “chaos does not bode well for anyone, especially when it impacts pricing.” While another pointed to the agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily slash tariffs, they said the central question is what the landscape will look like in a few months.

‘Hugely distracting’

“We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work,” this respondent said. “It is also very hard to know what plans we should actually implement.”

Responses to the ISM service sector survey released Wednesday revealed a similar focus on the uncertainty stemming from controversial tariffs.

“Tariffs remain a challenge, as it is not clear what duties apply,” one respondent wrote. “The best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible.”

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Fed ‘Beige Book’ economic report cites declining growth, rising prices and slow hiring

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A store closing sign is displayed as customers shop during the last day of a store closing sale at a JOANN Fabric and Crafts location in a shopping mall following the company’s bankruptcy in Torrance, California on May 27, 2025.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. economy contracted over the past six weeks as hiring slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

In its periodic “Beige Book” summary of conditions, the central bank noted that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report” released April 23.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” the report added.

Hiring was “little changed” across most of the Fed’s 12 districts, with seven describing employment as “flat” amid widespread growth in applicants and lower turnover rates.

“All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive,” the report said.

On inflation, the report described prices as rising “at a moderate pace.”

“There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial,” it said. “All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices.”

There were disparities, though, over expectations for how much prices would rise, with some businesses saying they might reduce profit margins or add “temporary fees or surcharges.”

“Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months,” the report said.

The report covers a period of a shifting landscape for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

In early May, Trump said he would relax so-called reciprocal tariffs against China, which responded in kind, helping to set off a rally on Wall Street amid hopes that the duties would not be as draconian as initially feared.

However, fears linger over the inflationary impact as well as whether hiring and the broader economy would slow because of slowdowns associated with the tariffs.

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in Thursday’s report, compared to 107 times in April.

Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth.

In New York specifically, the Fed found “heightened uncertainty” and input prices that “grew strongly with tariff-inducted cost increases. Richmond reported a slight increase in hiring despite Trump’s efforts to trim the federal government payroll.

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Economics

Meet SCOTUSbot, our AI tool to predict Supreme Court rulings

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This June may be the most harried for the Supreme Court’s justices in some time. On top of 30-odd rulings due by Independence Day, the court faces a steady stream of emergency pleas. Over 16 years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama filed a total of eight emergency applications in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). In the past 20 weeks, as many of his executive orders have been blocked by lower courts, Donald Trump has filed 18.

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