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What top advisors say about the presidential election market impact

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A voter works on his ballot at a polling station at theElena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024. Early in-person voting for the 2024 US presidential election began in Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota. 

– | Afp | Getty Images

Many investors worry their investments may be affected by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

But history tells another story.

Investment research company Morningstar recently evaluated how the S&P 500 has performed starting Nov. 1 in the past 25 U.S. presidential elections and found the results have been a “mixed bag.”

Forward one-year returns were positive for 10 of the 13 elections where Democrats won, and in nine of the 12 contests where Republicans won, the firm found.

Forward four-year returns were positive for Democrats in 11 out of 12 terms, compared to Republicans who had positive returns in nine out of 12.

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“Presidential elections historically have not been nearly as important to markets as most people think,” said Mark Motley, portfolio manager at Foster & Motley in Cincinnati, which is No. 34 on the 2024 CNBC Financial Advisor 100 list.

All presidential terms since President Jimmy Carter saw healthy stock market returns for the full four- or eight-years, with the exception of President George W. Bush due to the Great Recession, Motley wrote in a recent market update.

To be sure, past market performance is not a predictor of future results.

Election predictions and the market

“It’s really hard to predict any sort of market movement based on whoever wins the presidency or whoever controls one or both houses of Congress,” said Joseph Veranth, chief investment officer at Dana Investment Advisors in Waukesha, Wisconsin, which ranked No. 4 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

Yet there is reason for optimism. The U.S. economy is in a strong position, with inflation trending down and strong growth and earnings.

“All those are positives for the market going forward,” Veranth said.

Preventing election anxiety from driving your financial decisions

However, the presidential contest could usher in short-term volatility, particularly if a winner is not declared right away.

Regardless of which party has historically been in power, the markets have moved higher in aggregate, according to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

Long term, a president’s policies have shown little ability to predict which sectors may fare best, Adam said.

For example, when former President Donald Trump came into office, many said energy was the place to put your money. Yet even with deregulation, record production and higher oil prices, the energy sector was down 8.4% during Trump’s presidential term, according to Adam’s research.

“During his four years, energy was the worst-performing sector by a long shot,” Adam said.

In contrast, energy outperformed during Biden’s presidency — up 24.4% as of Sept. 25 — despite an emphasis on renewables and sustainability that may have prompted speculators to expect otherwise.

While the presidential candidates have been clear on what they plan to do if elected, a lot of what they actually accomplish will depend on the makeup of the legislative branch, said Brad Houle, principal and head of fixed income at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon, which is No. 10 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

“We don’t recommend that clients make any changes at all,” Houle said of election month.

Ultimately, what will drive long-term stock market returns will be factors like economic performance, as well as stock market earnings and what investors are willing to pay for them, he said.

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Here are the HSA contribution limits for 2026

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The IRS on Thursday unveiled 2026 contribution limits for health savings accounts, or HSAs, which offer triple-tax benefits for medical expenses.

Starting in 2026, the new HSA contribution limit will be $4,400 for self-only health coverage, the IRS announced Thursday. That’s up from $4,300 in 2025, based on inflation adjustments.

Meanwhile, the new limit for savers with family coverage will jump to $8,750, up from $8,550 in 2025, according to the update.   

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To make HSA contributions in 2026, you must have an eligible high-deductible health insurance plan.

For 2026, the IRS defines a high deductible as at least $1,700 for self-only coverage or $3,400 for family plans. Plus, the plan’s cap on yearly out-of-pocket expenses — deductibles, co-payments and other amounts — can’t exceed $8,500 for individual plans or $17,000 for family coverage.

Investors have until the tax deadline to make HSA contributions for the previous year. That means the last chance for 2026 deposits is April 2027.

HSAs have triple-tax benefits

If you’re eligible to make HSA contributions, financial advisors recommend investing the balance for the long-term rather than spending the funds on current-year medical expenses, cash flow permitting.

The reason: “Your health savings account has three tax benefits,” said certified financial planner Dan Galli, owner of Daniel J. Galli & Associates in Norwell, Massachusetts.  

There’s typically an upfront deduction for contributions, your balance grows tax-free and you can withdraw the money any time tax-free for qualified medical expenses. 

Unlike flexible spending accounts, or FSAs, investors can roll HSA balances over from year to year. The account is also portable between jobs, meaning you can keep the money when leaving an employer.

That makes your HSA “very powerful” for future retirement savings, Galli said. 

Healthcare expenses in retirement can be significant. A single 65-year-old retiring in 2024 could expect to spend an average of $165,000 on medical expenses through their golden years, according to Fidelity data. This doesn’t include the cost of long-term care.

Most HSAs used for current expenses 

In 2024, two-thirds of companies offered investment options for HSA contributions, according to a survey released in November by the Plan Sponsor Council of America, which polled more than 500 employers in the summer of 2024. 

But only 18% of participants were investing their HSA balance, down slightly from the previous year, the survey found.

“Ultimately, most participants still are using that HSA for current health-care expenses,” Hattie Greenan, director of research and communications for the Plan Sponsor Council of America, previously told CNBC.

Build emergency and retirement savings at the same time

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There’s a higher 401(k) catch-up contribution for some in 2025

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If you’re an older investor and eager to save more for retirement, there’s a big 401(k) change for 2025 that could help boost your portfolio, experts say.

Americans expect they will need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, and more than half expect to outlive their savings, according to a Northwestern Mutual survey, which polled more than 4,600 adults in January.

But starting this year, some older workers can leverage a 401(k) “super funding” opportunity to help them catch up, Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida, previously told CNBC.

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Here’s what investors need to know about this new 401(k) feature for 2025.

Higher ‘catch-up contributions’

For 2025, you can defer up to $23,500 into your 401(k), plus an extra $7,500 if you’re age 50 and older, known as “catch-up contributions.”

Thanks to Secure 2.0, the 401(k) catch-up limit has jumped to $11,250 for workers age 60 to 63 in 2025. That brings the max deferral limit to $34,750 for these investors.   

Here’s the 2025 catch-up limit by age:

  • 50-59: $7,500
  • 60-63: $11,250
  • 64-plus: $7,500

However, 3% of retirement plans haven’t added the feature for 2025, according to Fidelity data. For those plans, catch-up contributions will automatically stop once deferrals reach $7,500, the company told CNBC.

Of course, many workers can’t afford to max out 401(k) employee deferrals or make catch-up contributions, experts say.

For plans offering catch-up contributions, only 15% of employees participated in 2023, according to the latest data from Vanguard’s How America Saves report.

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However, your eligibility for higher 401(k) catch-up contributions hinges what age you’ll be on Dec. 31, Galli explained.

For example, if you’re age 59 early in 2025 and turn 60 in December, you can make the catch-up, he said. Conversely, you can’t make the contribution if you’re 63 now and will be 64 by year-end.   

On top of 401(k) catch-up contributions, big savers could also consider after-tax deferrals, which is another lesser-known feature. But only 22% of employer plans offered the feature in 2023, according to the Vanguard report.

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Trump’s tax package could include ‘SALT’ relief. Who could benefit

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U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) speaks during a press conference about the SALT Caucus outside the United States Capitol on Wednesday February 08, 2023 in Washington, DC. 

Matt McClain | The Washington Post | Getty Images

As debates ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s policy agenda, changes to a key tax provision could benefit higher earners, experts say. 

Enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, there’s a $10,000 limit on the federal deduction on state and local taxes, known as SALT, which will sunset after 2025 without action from Congress.

Currently, if you itemize tax breaks, you can’t deduct more than $10,000 in levies paid to state and local governments, including income and property taxes.

Raising the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. With a slim House Republican majority, those voices could impact negotiations.

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While Trump enacted the $10,000 SALT cap in 2017, he reversed his position on the campaign trail last year, vowing to “get SALT back” if re-elected. He has renewed calls for reform since being sworn into office.

Lawmakers have floated several updates, including a complete repeal, which seems unlikely with a tight budget and several competing priorities, experts say.

“It all has to come together in the context of the broader package,” but a higher SALT deduction limit could be possible, said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation.

Here’s who could be impacted.

How the SALT deduction works

When filing taxes, you choose the greater of the standard deduction or your itemized deductions, including SALT capped at $10,000, medical expenses above 7.5% of your adjusted gross income, charitable gifts and others.

Starting in 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the standard deduction, and it adjusts for inflation yearly. For 2025, the standard deduction is $15,000 for single filers and $30,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Because of the high threshold, the vast majority of filers — roughly 90%, according to the latest IRS data — use the standard deduction and don’t benefit from itemized tax breaks.

Typically, itemized deductions increase with income, and higher earners tend to owe more in state income and property taxes, according to Watson.

Who benefits from a higher SALT limit

Generally, higher earners would benefit most from raising the SALT deduction limit, experts say.

For example, one proposal, which would remove the “marriage penalty” in federal income taxes, involves increasing the cap on SALT deduction for married couples filing jointly from $10,000 to $20,000.

That would offer almost all the tax break to households making over $200,000 per year, according to a January analysis from the Tax Policy Center.

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle income,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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Of course, upper-middle income looks different depending on where you live, he said.

Forty of the top fifty U.S. congressional districts impacted by the SALT limit are in California, Illinois, New Jersey or New York, a Bipartisan Policy Center analysis from before 2022 redistricting found.

If lawmakers repealed the cap completely, households making $430,000 or more would see nearly three-quarters of the benefit, according to a separate Tax Policy Center analysis from September.

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