Connect with us

Personal Finance

What top advisors say about the presidential election market impact

Published

on

A voter works on his ballot at a polling station at theElena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024. Early in-person voting for the 2024 US presidential election began in Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota. 

– | Afp | Getty Images

Many investors worry their investments may be affected by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

But history tells another story.

Investment research company Morningstar recently evaluated how the S&P 500 has performed starting Nov. 1 in the past 25 U.S. presidential elections and found the results have been a “mixed bag.”

Forward one-year returns were positive for 10 of the 13 elections where Democrats won, and in nine of the 12 contests where Republicans won, the firm found.

Forward four-year returns were positive for Democrats in 11 out of 12 terms, compared to Republicans who had positive returns in nine out of 12.

More from FA Playbook:

Here’s a look at other stories impacting the financial advisor business.

“Presidential elections historically have not been nearly as important to markets as most people think,” said Mark Motley, portfolio manager at Foster & Motley in Cincinnati, which is No. 34 on the 2024 CNBC Financial Advisor 100 list.

All presidential terms since President Jimmy Carter saw healthy stock market returns for the full four- or eight-years, with the exception of President George W. Bush due to the Great Recession, Motley wrote in a recent market update.

To be sure, past market performance is not a predictor of future results.

Election predictions and the market

“It’s really hard to predict any sort of market movement based on whoever wins the presidency or whoever controls one or both houses of Congress,” said Joseph Veranth, chief investment officer at Dana Investment Advisors in Waukesha, Wisconsin, which ranked No. 4 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

Yet there is reason for optimism. The U.S. economy is in a strong position, with inflation trending down and strong growth and earnings.

“All those are positives for the market going forward,” Veranth said.

Preventing election anxiety from driving your financial decisions

However, the presidential contest could usher in short-term volatility, particularly if a winner is not declared right away.

Regardless of which party has historically been in power, the markets have moved higher in aggregate, according to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

Long term, a president’s policies have shown little ability to predict which sectors may fare best, Adam said.

For example, when former President Donald Trump came into office, many said energy was the place to put your money. Yet even with deregulation, record production and higher oil prices, the energy sector was down 8.4% during Trump’s presidential term, according to Adam’s research.

“During his four years, energy was the worst-performing sector by a long shot,” Adam said.

In contrast, energy outperformed during Biden’s presidency — up 24.4% as of Sept. 25 — despite an emphasis on renewables and sustainability that may have prompted speculators to expect otherwise.

While the presidential candidates have been clear on what they plan to do if elected, a lot of what they actually accomplish will depend on the makeup of the legislative branch, said Brad Houle, principal and head of fixed income at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon, which is No. 10 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

“We don’t recommend that clients make any changes at all,” Houle said of election month.

Ultimately, what will drive long-term stock market returns will be factors like economic performance, as well as stock market earnings and what investors are willing to pay for them, he said.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

Published

on

Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

Published

on

Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

Published

on

Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

Continue Reading

Trending