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What Trump’s historic election victory means for the global economy

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A worker is making textile export orders at a production workshop of a textile enterprise in Binzhou, China, on July 8, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Donald Trump‘s election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris marks a historic return to the White House — an extraordinary political comeback that is likely to have seismic ramifications for the global economy.

Speaking to his supporters in Florida early Wednesday, Trump said an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” would usher in “the golden age of America.”

The former president’s litany of campaign pledges include steep tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and a push to withdraw from key global agreements.

Analysts say it is hard to pin down the extent to which Trump will seek to implement these measures in his second four-year term, but the consequences of any will have clear repercussions across the globe.

Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at asset manager Abrdn, said it remains to be seen exactly what style of presidency investors can expect when Trump returns to the White House.

“Congress has a really big part to play in this,” Galbraith told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Trump's principle tariff focus will be China — not elsewhere, says political economist

“If Trump does have unified control of Congress, as is looking very likely and is what we expect to happen over the next few weeks and days, then he does have greater latitude to implement his tax-cutting agenda, his deregulatory agenda, for example, but we are also likely to see elements of his trade policy sitting alongside that.”

On tariffs, Galbraith said there were currently two schools of thought. Either Trump seeks to use them as a bargaining tool to gain concessions from other parties — or he delivers on his promise and implements them much more broadly.

Trump’s favorite word

Trump has previously described “tariff” as his favorite word, calling it “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

In an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.

For the European Union, meanwhile, Trump has said the 27-nation bloc will pay a “big price” for not buying enough American exports.

Former US President Donald Trump arrives during a “Get Out The Vote” rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, March 2, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“Now, I think it is worth pointing out that we do think that in any situation which Trump is using tariffs quite often, his principal focus is going to be on China. And we don’t see Trump’s secondary tariff pledge — that baseline tariff, which would hurt European companies — as being all that feasible,” Galbraith said.

“So, it’s not necessarily our base case that you see something like a baseline tariff applied that would really hurt European goods although there is still a distinct possibility there that specific European products could be affected,” she added.

Analysts have warned that Trump’s plan to impose universal tariffs are highly likely to raise prices for consumers and slow spending.

Europe

Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said the direct impact of Trump 2.0 on economic growth is likely to be limited in the near term, “but masks major implications for trade and the composition of growth, and for financial markets.”

For instance, May said that in a scenario in which the more radical aspects of Trump’s policy agenda are adopted, particularly on tariffs, the impact across the globe will be “very sizable.”

“A key unknown is whether a clean sweep raises the risk that a Trump administration will push through more extreme policy measures, such as larger, less-targeted tariffs,” May said in a research note.

“Uncertainty over Trump’s stance on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East also adds to the risk of greater instability in both regions, which could take a toll on regional, and even global, growth,” he added.

Europe is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency, Barclays strategist says

The prospect of a second Trump presidency had long been viewed as negative for Europe and the European Union more broadly.

Yet, analysts at Signum Global Advisors said in a research note on Wednesday that “the magnitude of that truth remains underappreciated.”

Indeed, they argued that several factors mean the EU is likely to be “the biggest loser of a second Trump era,” citing trade tensions, an ongoing frustration with key European policy decisions and Trump’s likely desire to double down on America’s advantage at attracting capital relocation.

Asia

Analysts at Macquarie Group said Thursday that, at face value, Trump’s election victory is “bad news for Asia,” particularly China, but the region is “more prepared” than in 2016, when he first moved into the White House.

A cargo ship is sailing towards the docking of a foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao Port, Shandong province, in Qingdao, China, on June 7, 2024.

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

“A key tenet of Trump’s campaign was higher tariffs. While well telegraphed, the headwinds that are likely to sweep across Asia, particularly China, should spike volatility and compress multiples as uncertainty prevails,” analyst at Macquarie Group said in a research note.

“A counter-balance to this is a likely acceleration in China stimulus measures,” they added. “The Chinese government has already outlined its ambitions to support economic growth at the 5% level and address property market woes to support domestic consumer confidence.”

Mitchell Reiss, an American diplomat and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said there are likely to be some differences to the Trump playbook this time round.

A 'lot of opportunities for growth' in defense stocks after Trump's win, RUSI fellow says

“I think that President-elect Trump has said that he would like to increase tariffs on China again until the playing field is level, in his view,” Reiss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“What was interesting the last time when Trump won was the number of China hawks that staffed his administration. This was a very tough administration in terms of personnel and in terms of their view of how they saw China as an adversary, expansionist in the South China Sea and contrary to American values and friends and allies around the world,” he continued.

“So, I don’t think that that’s going to change. I think that might be mitigated a bit by the economic interaction that we have with China, but I think that it is going to be a complicated relationship going forward.”

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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