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When the government data will start rolling out with the shutdown ending and what it is likely to show

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The U.S. Capitol building after the U.S. Senate advances a bill to end the government shutdown in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 10, 2025.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Economic data releases that have lagged during the government shutdown likely will take some time to get rolling again once Congress is back in business.

The reopening could happen as soon as the end of this week once final votes take place and President Donald Trump signs a stop-gap spending bill into law.

From there, though, it will take the various agencies, primarily in the departments of Labor and Commerce, to get up and rolling again as it regards data collection and releases. That means likely having to play catch-up for key reports like nonfarm payrolls, the consumer price index, retail sales, spending and income, and a variety of other metrics.

“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker said in a client note. “While the shutdown appears to be nearing its end, it will take time for the statistical agencies to work through the backlog of releases.”

Assuming the government reopens before the end of the week, Goldman figures the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out an updated schedule of releases in the early part of next week.

Senate passes bill to end government shutdown

The BLS is in charge of the payrolls report as well as the CPI and the producer price index, both of which were scheduled for release this week. Other reports from the bureau include import and export prices, the employment cost index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Goldman’s economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after the reopening, possibly next Tuesday or Wednesday. “But apart from that, we expect other major data releases to be delayed,” they said.

That means the November payrolls and inflation reports could be delayed by “at least a week,” Goldman said.

For Commerce, among the more relevant reports are personal spending and income, which also includes the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Outside of that, there’s retail sales, durable goods and the quarterly gross domestic product reading.

When the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show more of the same as far as the economy goes — a slowing labor market, inflation still holding above the Fed’s comfort level and broader growth positive but also not gangbusters.

Fed officials have noted the inconvenience of not having regular data reports. But Chair Jerome Powell said recently that alternative data shows the central bank really hasn’t missed much in terms of the macro picture.

“Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September,” Powell said at an Oct. 29 news conference. “Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting the October nonfarm payrolls report to show a loss of 60,000 jobs. While Goldman puts the decline at 50,000, the general tenor of data for the month points to a slowdown.

Powell said Fed estimates put the key inflation rate at 2.8% for September, which is still considerably above the central bank’s 2% target but expected to decelerate gradually through 2026. The official PCE report is scheduled to drop Nov. 26, and it is unknown whether that will be the case.

As for the broader economy, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data puts third-quarter growth at a 4% rate. Goldman projects fourth-quarter growth of 1.3%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point from the prior forecast, putting the full year on pace for a 2% annualized gain.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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