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Which investment wins long term?

Published

11 months ago

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Gold breaks through $4,000/oz

Investors can’t help but notice the sparkle of gold’s record run. But they may want to think twice before adding more of it to their portfolios — over the long haul, it underperforms compared to stocks and other assets.

“Gold glitters but earnings compound,” said Pat Beaird, a certified public accountant and co-founder of Beaird Harris Wealth Management in Dallas.

“Over 30 years, compounding wins every time,” he said. Beaird Harris Wealth Management is ranked No. 3 on CNBC’s Financial Advisor 100 list for 2025.

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Gold returns are ‘not reliable’

Gold is on a hot streak.

Spot gold is now over $4,000 per ounce for the first time. It’s also up 51.6% year-to-date, as of Tuesday’s close — and there may be more room to run amid the government shutdown, expectations of interest rate cuts and further geopolitical uncertainty, experts say.

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast prices could hit $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, according to a research note published Monday.

Still, over a 30-year period through September, the annualized total return for gold is 7.96%, per Morningstar Direct data. Over the same time frame, the total return of S&P 500 stocks is 10.67%, and for real estate, 8.89%.

“Historically, our view has always been that equities have more staying power as an inflation hedge,” Beaird said. While gold can “pop” during periods of turmoil and huge deficit spending, “it’s not reliable,” he added.

“If I’m going to subject a portfolio to that level of volatility, I’d rather have it in the highest returning asset class.”

Mark Mirsberger, a CPA and CEO of Dana Investment Advisors, which ranked No. 6 on CNBC’s Financial Advisor 100 list for 2025, also said other investments are more appealing than metals, even now.  

“We still see diversified balanced portfolios utilizing bonds and asset classes other than gold as more attractive and flexible than using material gold positions,” Mirsberger said.

“Equities have historically been a good hedge against inflation, and they generate earnings growth and pay dividends, something gold doesn’t do,” he said.

Why gold shines in ‘bad economic times’

Gold surged past the $3,900-an-ounce level for the first time on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand following a fall in the yen and a U.S. government shutdown, while growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts also lent support.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Yet, at an economic forum on Tuesday, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold. He compared today’s environment to the 1970s, when the precious metal jumped by 100% amid geopolitical unrest, inflation, significant government spending and high debt.

“It is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down,” Dalio said.

Gold prices could reach $4,400 in the first half of 2026, says TD Securities' Bart Melek

Investors regard gold as protective against “bad economic times,” according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

As a safe-haven investment, gold tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during periods of political and financial uncertainty, according to Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 

With the U.S. government shutdown now in its second week and gold prices hitting new highs, “the trend is very much intact,” he said.

How to invest in gold

Experts often recommend getting investment exposure to gold through an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of physical gold, as part of a well-diversified portfolio, rather than buying actual gold coins or bars. “That makes the most sense for the vast majority of investors,” Samana said.

But despite the metal’s historic run, financial advisors generally recommend limiting gold exposure to a low single-digit percentage of any portfolio.

“It’s always had a position in a lot of our portfolios, but not necessarily a big one,” said John Mullen, president and CEO of Parsons Capital Management, which ranked No. 1 on CNBC’s list of the top 100 financial advisors. Mullen is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

However, Mullen said gold is looking increasingly attractive and his firm’s outlook is positive: “We do think that gold can continue to move higher.”

Mullen said his position is not in line with Dalio’s recommendation of 15%, but factoring in “the fiscal mess that is Washington and the uncertainty coming out of there, we’ve become increasingly constructive,” he said.

Largely through investments in gold bullion-backed ETFs and gold miner stocks, “we’ve probably added a couple of percentage points, but still in the single digits,” he said.

Although Beaird said his firm maintains a strategic allocation — of up to 10% — in various alternative investments in the portfolios they manage for clients, “gold is just not one of them.”

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Personal Finance

Navigating Residential Real Estate and Mortgage Strategy

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3 weeks ago

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August 15, 2026

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The 2026 residential real estate market presents a nuanced landscape for homebuyers, current homeowners, and property investors. With benchmark mortgage rates adjusting alongside Treasury yield movements, real estate strategies require careful evaluation of borrowing costs, local market supply dynamics, and long-term home equity management.

Adapting Homebuying Strategies to Mortgage Dynamics
Prospective homebuyers are adapting to fixed 30-year mortgage rates hovering between 6.0% and 6.8%. While borrowing costs are elevated compared to historical lows seen in prior decades, moderating home price growth across several regional markets is creating selective opportunities for buyers with strong credit profiles.

Homebuyers are increasingly utilizing strategic mortgage options:
– Builder Rate Buydowns: Purchasing new construction homes where developers offer temporary or permanent interest rate buydowns to lower initial monthly payments.
– Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): Selecting 5/1 or 7/1 hybrid ARMs with strict rate caps for short-to-medium-term housing plans.
– Points and Financing Structure: Evaluating upfront discount point purchases to secure lower fixed interest rates over the loan term.

Home Equity Utilization and Renovation Financing
For existing homeowners holding low-rate legacy mortgages, moving to a new property often entails relinquishing favorable debt terms. Consequently, many homeowners are choosing to renovate and expand existing properties rather than sell.

Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans allow homeowners to access accumulated property equity for capital improvements without disturbing their primary mortgage rate. Utilizing home equity for value-adding property renovations can enhance living space while increasing long-term property values.

Strategic Real Estate Investment Guidelines
For residential property investors, achieving positive cash flow requires strict underwriting standards:
– Stress-Test Operating Expenses: Factor in rising property insurance premiums, local property taxes, and ongoing maintenance reserves.
– Focus on High-Growth Rental Markets: Target regions experiencing steady job growth and sustained tenant demand.
– Maintain Cash Buffers: Ensure property portfolios maintain dedicated emergency reserves to navigate unexpected vacancy periods or major repairs.

Actionable Homeownership Steps
1. Evaluate Complete Monthly Housing Costs: Assess property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA fees alongside principal and interest.
2. Leverage Renovation Equity Carefully: Utilize equity loans strategically for renovations that generate long-term property value.
3. Prioritize Credit Score Optimization: Secure top-tier credit scores prior to mortgage pre-approval to qualify for competitive lender pricing tiers.

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Personal Finance

$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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4 weeks ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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4 weeks ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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