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Why gas prices, airline tickets are rising

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The reaction to rising oil prices and a hawkish Fed

With the Iran war in its fifth week, consumers are getting hit hard by surging energy costs. Now, some lawmakers are warning of the potential for price gouging, even as experts point to extreme supply shocks.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime shipping route for global oil supplies, remains effectively at a standstill, causing the biggest oil supply disruption in history.

Oil prices have soared more than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, triggering price spikes for gas and jet fuel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, topped $112 a barrel on Friday before retreating. As of Tuesday morning, it was trading at about $103. Gasoline, which is refined from crude oil, reached a nationwide average of $3.98 a gallon as of Tuesday, up about 35% from a month ago, according to AAA.

Jet fuel prices are up about 106% versus a month ago, according to the International Air Transport Association, which measured data for the week ended March 20. Already, some airlines said they will increase fares or tack on fuel surcharges to tickets.

Elizabeth Warren targets price gouging

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is now urging the Federal Trade Commission to watch for businesses trying to take advantage of consumers by raising prices more than necessary amid the conflict.

“We write regarding our concerns that big corporations may seek to profit off President Trump’s war against Iran by unfairly raising prices for American consumers,” Warren and several other lawmakers wrote in a letter sent Tuesday to Andrew Ferguson, chair of the FTC, and shared exclusively with CNBC.

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In the letter, also signed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., and Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., the lawmakers said, “corporations may capitalize on this uncertainty to hike prices more than is warranted by actual input cost increases, price gouging everyday Americans.”

Price gouging occurs when sellers expand their profit margins by raising prices more than necessary to cover higher input costs, they said.

Prices for unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel displayed at a Chevron gas station in Seattle, March 9, 2026.

M. Scott Brauer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In 2025, Warren introduced the Price Gouging Prevention Act to give the FTC additional authority to litigate alleged abuses. The legislation has been with the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation since mid-July. A similar bill co-sponsored by Warren in 2024 failed to pass.

Amid the Iran war, price-gouging concerns are particularly acute for oil, gasoline and fertilizer, the lawmakers wrote; however, “rising input costs could also lead to downstream price increases in other industries, including the food and airline industries,” the letter said.

Why gas prices are rising so quickly

The Thailand-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree engulfed in black smoke in the Strait of Hormuz, March 11, 2026.

Reuters

It takes about five to six weeks for crude oil to be processed and turned into gasoline for delivery, according to Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “That means that gasoline moving out of refineries based on higher-priced crude oil they received after the war started is only now starting to be shipped to gasoline stations.”

However, some wholesale dealers might be buying gas on the spot market and, in that case, the price spike “would be instantaneous,” Jaffe said.

Because of these market conditions, “there is no price gouging that I can see,” according to Ken Medlock, senior director at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

“In fact, the changes in prices at the pump are consistent with historical norms, given the rapid change in crude oil price,” he said. 

“The issue is that this is the largest nominal price increase we have ever seen in such a short period of time,” Medlock added.

Jet fuel prices drive airfares up

A traveler checks her flight status on the airport arrivals and departures board in Krakow, Poland, March 5, 2026.

Marcin Golba | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Higher operational costs will ultimately feed through to higher airfares, Helen McDermott, director of global forecasting at Tourism Economics, wrote in a March 19 research note.

However, price impacts will vary by airline, she wrote. Low-cost carriers tend to see more impact, as jet fuel costs are a higher share of total costs, she wrote.

David Goodger, a managing director and head of tourism forecasting at Tourism Economics, told CNBC he expects airfares to rise “more than would otherwise be the case” due to the war in Iran.

“While the outlook remains uncertain, we expect air fares will be 5-10% higher than we previously expected over 2026 and 2027,” Goodger wrote in an e-mail.

Airlines may impose additional fuel surcharge fees amid prolonged spikes in fuel costs, Goodger said.

“Airlines love to say fuel is expensive so you have to pay more. What they’re doing is they’re setting the expectation,” Courtney Miller, founder of Visual Approach Analytics, an airline industry advisory firm, previously told CNBC. “They price to prevent empty seats.”

Stranded passengers wait with their luggage outside the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, Bangladesh, after carriers canceled flights amid the Middle East conflict, March 3, 2026.

Munir Uz Zaman | Afp | Getty Images

Ultimately, there are “too many unknowns” surrounding the Iran war and impact on energy markets, for example, to predict airfare impacts with much certainty, according to Katy Nastro, a spokesperson at Going, a flight deal provider.

There may also be an element of panic-buying among consumers, further exacerbating price increases, said Nastro.

Average airfare for travel between April 20 and May 17 — the period after spring break but before summer — has increased about 10% to 15% at the median, relative to prices just before the war started, Nastro said.

Fares for summer travel are up even more — about 18% — versus a year ago, she said.

“We’re taking the temperature check, and it’s not looking good” for airline prices, Nastro said. “The temperature is rising.”

The affordability issue

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Personal Finance

Maximizing Returns in High Rate Climate and market uncertainty

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Maximizing Returns in High-Rate Climate

In the macroeconomic environment of late July 2026, personal cash management requires an active, structured approach to wealth preservation. With central bank benchmark rates remaining elevated to ensure long-term disinflation, conservative yield-bearing vehicles—such as short-term U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs)—continue to offer reliable nominal returns between 4% and 5%. For individual investors, maximizing net returns requires moving beyond passive checking accounts and executing a disciplined cash laddering strategy.

Leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional bank deposits creates an invisible drag on personal net worth due to ongoing inflation. By implementing a tiered liquidity framework, individuals can split emergency cash reserves and short-term capital allocations across rolling maturities. Allocating cash into 4-week, 8-week, and 13-week Treasury bills creates a continuous cycle of maturing liquidity, allowing investors to continuously reinvest capital at prevailing market yields while maintaining immediate access to emergency funds.

Tax efficiency represents a critical dimension of high-yield cash optimization. For high-earning individuals residing in states with substantial local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury instruments often deliver superior net post-tax yields compared to standard commercial bank HYSAs. Because interest earned on federal Treasury bills is strictly exempt from state and local taxation, investors can retain a larger portion of their compounding interest gains without taking on additional credit or market risk.

Ultimately, personal wealth accumulation in mid-2026 relies on intentional capital deployment. Cash should be managed as a productive asset class that generates consistent, risk-free returns. Regularly auditing account yield terms, automating recurring transfers, and leveraging tax-advantaged fixed-income instruments ensures that personal liquidity remains fully optimized against macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Personal Finance

Algorithmic Wealth Management: Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

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Balancing Automated Financial Planning with Human Oversight

The personal finance industry in July 2026 is experiencing a technological evolution, driven by the wide deployment of next-generation algorithmic wealth management tools. Modern digital financial platforms have expanded far beyond basic automated index investing; today’s robo-advisors utilize real-time tax-loss harvesting, dynamic portfolio rebalancing, and hyper-personalized spending analysis to optimize retail investor outcomes. However, as these digital solutions become ubiquitous, investors face the crucial challenge of balancing automated execution with human strategic judgment.

The core advantage of automated financial planning platforms lies in their ability to remove emotional bias from investment execution. During periods of market volatility or localized sector realignments, automated algorithms systematically rebalance portfolios back to target asset allocations without falling victim to panic selling or speculative enthusiasm. Furthermore, integrated cash-flow monitoring algorithms analyze individual spending patterns in real time, automatically sweeping surplus income into designated retirement or debt-liquidation accounts to accelerate net worth accumulation.

Despite these operational advantages, algorithmic tools have inherent structural limitations when addressing complex, highly personalized financial life events. Decisions involving multi-generational estate planning, highly complex tax strategies, small business exits, or nuanced real estate transactions require contextual human judgment that software models cannot replicate. Relying solely on automated models without periodic human professional review can result in misaligned risk profiles or overlooked tax liabilities during major life transitions.

The optimal approach for personal financial planning in late 2026 is a hybrid advisory model. Individuals should utilize automated platforms for routine asset allocation, continuous tax optimization, and low-cost passive index tracking, while engaging qualified human financial advisors for periodic strategic planning, estate structuring, and qualitative risk evaluations. This dual approach ensures maximum cost efficiency and disciplined execution while retaining essential strategic guidance.

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Personal Finance

High-Yield Optimization: Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

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Structuring Personal Cash Reserves in a Sustained Rate Environment

In the financial environment of mid-2026, personal cash management has re-emerged as a vital component of holistic wealth building. With central bank policy rates holding firm to maintain long-term price stability, yield-bearing instruments such as money market funds, high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs), and short-term Treasury bills continue to offer compounding returns around 4% to 5%. For individual investors, effectively structuring cash reserves requires shifting away from passive bank deposits toward active yield optimization.

A frequent pitfall in personal asset management is leaving substantial liquid capital in traditional checking or low-yield savings accounts, where real returns are continuously eroded by baseline inflation. By implementing a disciplined ‘cash ladder’ strategy—allocating liquid funds across tiered maturities using ultra-short Treasury instruments and FDIC-insured high-yield accounts—individuals can secure maximal yields while retaining immediate liquidity for emergency expenses or tactical investment opportunities.

Simultaneously, investors must evaluate the tax efficiency of their cash holdings based on their tax bracket and geographic location. For high earners situated in states with high local income taxes, direct holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury bills often yield a higher net post-tax return than standard high-yield savings accounts, as Treasury interest is strictly exempt from state and local taxation. Understanding these nuanced tax distinctions allows individuals to capture significant incremental gains without taking on additional market risk.

Ultimately, personal financial health in late 2026 hinges on intentional liquidity management. Cash reserves should not be viewed merely as static emergency funds, but as a dynamic asset class that contributes positively to net worth growth. Regularly auditing yield terms, automating cash transfers, and optimizing for post-tax efficiency ensures that personal capital remains fully productive across all economic conditions.

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