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Why gas prices, airline tickets are rising

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4 months ago

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The reaction to rising oil prices and a hawkish Fed

With the Iran war in its fifth week, consumers are getting hit hard by surging energy costs. Now, some lawmakers are warning of the potential for price gouging, even as experts point to extreme supply shocks.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime shipping route for global oil supplies, remains effectively at a standstill, causing the biggest oil supply disruption in history.

Oil prices have soared more than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, triggering price spikes for gas and jet fuel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, topped $112 a barrel on Friday before retreating. As of Tuesday morning, it was trading at about $103. Gasoline, which is refined from crude oil, reached a nationwide average of $3.98 a gallon as of Tuesday, up about 35% from a month ago, according to AAA.

Jet fuel prices are up about 106% versus a month ago, according to the International Air Transport Association, which measured data for the week ended March 20. Already, some airlines said they will increase fares or tack on fuel surcharges to tickets.

Elizabeth Warren targets price gouging

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is now urging the Federal Trade Commission to watch for businesses trying to take advantage of consumers by raising prices more than necessary amid the conflict.

“We write regarding our concerns that big corporations may seek to profit off President Trump’s war against Iran by unfairly raising prices for American consumers,” Warren and several other lawmakers wrote in a letter sent Tuesday to Andrew Ferguson, chair of the FTC, and shared exclusively with CNBC.

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In the letter, also signed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., and Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., the lawmakers said, “corporations may capitalize on this uncertainty to hike prices more than is warranted by actual input cost increases, price gouging everyday Americans.”

Price gouging occurs when sellers expand their profit margins by raising prices more than necessary to cover higher input costs, they said.

Prices for unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel displayed at a Chevron gas station in Seattle, March 9, 2026.

M. Scott Brauer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In 2025, Warren introduced the Price Gouging Prevention Act to give the FTC additional authority to litigate alleged abuses. The legislation has been with the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation since mid-July. A similar bill co-sponsored by Warren in 2024 failed to pass.

Amid the Iran war, price-gouging concerns are particularly acute for oil, gasoline and fertilizer, the lawmakers wrote; however, “rising input costs could also lead to downstream price increases in other industries, including the food and airline industries,” the letter said.

Why gas prices are rising so quickly

The Thailand-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree engulfed in black smoke in the Strait of Hormuz, March 11, 2026.

Reuters

It takes about five to six weeks for crude oil to be processed and turned into gasoline for delivery, according to Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “That means that gasoline moving out of refineries based on higher-priced crude oil they received after the war started is only now starting to be shipped to gasoline stations.”

However, some wholesale dealers might be buying gas on the spot market and, in that case, the price spike “would be instantaneous,” Jaffe said.

Because of these market conditions, “there is no price gouging that I can see,” according to Ken Medlock, senior director at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

“In fact, the changes in prices at the pump are consistent with historical norms, given the rapid change in crude oil price,” he said. 

“The issue is that this is the largest nominal price increase we have ever seen in such a short period of time,” Medlock added.

Jet fuel prices drive airfares up

A traveler checks her flight status on the airport arrivals and departures board in Krakow, Poland, March 5, 2026.

Marcin Golba | Nurphoto | Getty Images

It’s unclear to what extent price gouging could be a factor in airfares, experts said.

Jet fuel prices are a major input cost for airlines, accounting for about 25% of airlines’ total operating costs, excluding labor, according to an analysis of federal data by Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby wrote in a March 20 note. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 [billion] in annual expense just for jet fuel.”

Higher operational costs will ultimately feed through to higher airfares, Helen McDermott, director of global forecasting at Tourism Economics, wrote in a March 19 research note.

However, price impacts will vary by airline, she wrote. Low-cost carriers tend to see more impact, as jet fuel costs are a higher share of total costs, she wrote.

David Goodger, a managing director and head of tourism forecasting at Tourism Economics, told CNBC he expects airfares to rise “more than would otherwise be the case” due to the war in Iran.

“While the outlook remains uncertain, we expect air fares will be 5-10% higher than we previously expected over 2026 and 2027,” Goodger wrote in an e-mail.

Airlines may impose additional fuel surcharge fees amid prolonged spikes in fuel costs, Goodger said.

“Airlines love to say fuel is expensive so you have to pay more. What they’re doing is they’re setting the expectation,” Courtney Miller, founder of Visual Approach Analytics, an airline industry advisory firm, previously told CNBC. “They price to prevent empty seats.”

Stranded passengers wait with their luggage outside the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, Bangladesh, after carriers canceled flights amid the Middle East conflict, March 3, 2026.

Munir Uz Zaman | Afp | Getty Images

Ultimately, there are “too many unknowns” surrounding the Iran war and impact on energy markets, for example, to predict airfare impacts with much certainty, according to Katy Nastro, a spokesperson at Going, a flight deal provider.

There may also be an element of panic-buying among consumers, further exacerbating price increases, said Nastro.

Average airfare for travel between April 20 and May 17 — the period after spring break but before summer — has increased about 10% to 15% at the median, relative to prices just before the war started, Nastro said.

Fares for summer travel are up even more — about 18% — versus a year ago, she said.

“We’re taking the temperature check, and it’s not looking good” for airline prices, Nastro said. “The temperature is rising.”

The affordability issue

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$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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6 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

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2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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