Connect with us

Economics

Why the Fed may not cut in September

Published

on

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Markets now firmly expect a September interest rate cut in the U.S., but the Federal Reserve has a strong reason to hold off, according to economist Carl Weinberg.

Money market pricing for a rate cut at the Fed’s fall meeting rose from around 70% to more than 90% on Thursday, according to LSEG data, after a softer-than-expected consumer price index print.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already bolstered expectations of such a move when he said earlier this week that there were risks in keeping interest rates too high for too long — comments interpreted as “modestly dovish” by analysts.

However, there are also risks to easing monetary policy that cast a cloud over the rate-cut outlook, Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

“The Fed chair was very clear in his testimony this week … that inflation metrics and the economy in general are moving in the way that we kind of like,” Weinberg said.

September most likely date for a Fed cut but things can change, economist says

That includes unemployment at around 4%, inflation moving toward 2% and the economy growing “roughly” at potential, he said.

“But [Powell] also implied, well, why would we want to change anything if the economy is at full employment, with inflation where we want it to be, and it’s growing nicely? Why would we want to tinker with what we have right now? Why would you want to cut rates under those circumstances?” Weinberg continued.

“There certainly is noise, buzz and data to support a rate cut at [the September] meeting. But there also is a cloud hanging over that decision.”

While a fall cut might look likely now, a lot can change between now and the Fed meeting on Sept. 18, Weinberg added.

U.S. inflation is heading in the right direction, but is not sustainably close to its target yet, analyst says

Two more CPI prints are due before that date. The Fed next meets at the end of July, when markets have priced in only a 5% chance of a rate reduction.

Although U.S. inflation peaked lower than many other major economies over the last three years, it has also been slower to fall, leaving the Fed behind on the path of monetary easing.

The central banks of the euro zone, Switzerland, Sweden and Canada have all cut rates already this year, while the Bank of England’s August decision is seen on a knife edge.

Economics

British businesses pile on the pressure on U.K. Fin Min Reeves

Published

on

Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Home improvement retailer Kingfisher became the latest British company to report a negative impact from U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October budget — as she prepares her latest update on the state of the British economy.

In its annual earnings release on Tuesday, Kingfisher, which owns home improvement retailer B&Q, said the government’s policies had “raised costs for retailers and impacted consumer sentiment,” with sales of big-ticket items falling.

It is the latest in a line of British businesses that have criticized Reeves’ bumper tax-rising budget since autumn. The companies will now be keeping a close eye on Reeves’ Spring Statement, when she’s set to update lawmakers on her latest spending and taxation plans at 12:30 p.m. London time Wednesday.

Top on the businesses’ list of complaints is a higher employment cost after the government pledged in October to increase national insurance contributions from employers and raised the country’s “national living wage” by 6.7% from April 1.

On Sunday, Reeves defended the tax rises ahead of the Wednesday statement, telling Sky News the government “took the action that was necessary to ensure our public services and public finances were on a firm footing.”

However, a number of consumer-facing businesses have flagged concerns with the Labour government’s economic policies in their earnings reports this quarter. They include supermarket giant Tesco, which said its higher national insurance contributions could add up to £250 million ($324 million) to annual costs, while the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, said the changes will cost every one of his pubs £1,500 per week. 

Regis Schultz, CEO of sportswear retailer JD Sports, said the policies mean it was tempting for businesses to reduce staff numbers and hours, “which will be bad news for the economy.” 

It comes as the U.K. battles economic sluggishness, rising prices and widespread uncertainty as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the country’s independent public finances watchdog, is reportedly expected to downgrade the U.K.’s growth forecasts for 2025 on Wednesday, halving its previous 2% estimate.

AB Foods, which owns budget fashion retailer Primark, blamed the Labour government’s budget as contributing to broader consumer weakness in the country. Finance Director Eoin Tonge told analysts that customers across its brands were cautious, citing “a shock and a fear, that’s driven people to pull in their horns.” That view was shared by clothing retailer Frasers Group, which said it saw weaker consumer confidence around the budget announcement. The company’s Chief Financial Officer Chris Wootton told Reuters the company “felt we’d been kicked in the face.”

The slew of negative corporate commentary is expected to pile pressure on Reeves ahead of her Spring Statement.

The British Retail Consortium has called on the government to “inject confidence into the economy,” warning that April’s rise in tax contributions and the minimum wage will generate £5 billion in additional costs for retailers, giving “many no option but to push prices up.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said Reeves “must inject business with a serious confidence boost” on Wednesday.

“As an immediate priority the government should re-commit to not raising the business tax burden further over the course of this Parliament,” Louise Hellem, chief economist of the CBI, said in a statement. “Setting an ambitious goal for R&D spending, making it easier to invest in skills and taking measures to reduce the regulatory burden on business would be encouraging moves that would show the government understood what business needs to see from them.”

Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer meanwhile told CNBC on Monday that concerns over consumer and business confidence will see Reeves focus on cutting costs rather than raising taxes this week, but said the government’s focus on boosting growth was “a laudable objective, a difficult thing to do.”

CNBC has reached out to the U.K. Treasury for comment.

CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Economics

America’s Supreme Court tackles a thorny voting-rights case

Published

on

Louisiana v Callais, a case the Supreme Court heard on March 24th, contains a political puzzle. Why is the solidly Republican state defending a congressional map that cost the party a seat in 2024—and will likely keep that seat in Democratic hands after the 2026 midterms, when the fight to control the House of Representatives could be very close?

Continue Reading

Economics

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

Published

on

Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. 

Tickets are limited!

Continue Reading

Trending