Economics

Why the Trump campaign is spending heavily on ads on trans issues

Published

4 months ago

November 2, 2024

FEW THINGS get Donald Trump more excited than talking about transgender issues. As he delivers his closing argument to America, barely a speech or ad goes by without a mention of “illegal aliens” getting “taxpayer-funded surgery” or biological males competing in women’s sports. Most of it is inflammatory and hateful. Some of it is clearly untrue, such as his claims that children are returning from school with sex changes, or his running-mate, J.D. Vance, suggesting this week that teens are “becoming trans” to get into Ivy League colleges. But some of it is not.

When asked recently how he would address the sports situation, Mr Trump said this was “such an easy question”: he would simply ban it. That brought loud cheers from the all-female Fox audience. It is a message Republicans are emphasising up and down the ballot. Recent polling by YouGov shows that Trump supporters have higher awareness of the former president’s policy on women’s sports than of his policy on abortion. In his final days of campaigning, Mr Trump is spending more on ads that attack Kamala Harris’s support for transgender rights than on any other subject, according to Politico.

It is easy to see why. Most Americans favour basic protections for transgender people—against hate speech, for example, or discrimination at work—and believe transgender people should be treated with respect (see chart). Yet most agree with Mr Trump that some policies and practices, however rare, have gone too far. Only 19% of Americans, including 33% of Democrats, support the idea of trans athletes playing on the sports team that matches their gender identity rather than their biological sex, according to YouGov. Indeed 25 states now require transgender students to participate in sports based on their natal sex, for reasons of both safety and fairness. Only 30% of Americans believe prisons should be required to house transgender inmates according to their gender identity. And just 19% believe transgender youths should have access to puberty-blocking medication (27% are unsure and 54% are opposed).

All of these policies are associated with Democrats, either because they supported them in the past or because they have failed to acknowledge some of the practical tensions that come with slogans like “transwomen are women”. During her presidential campaign, Ms Harris’s strategy has been to avoid the T-word at all costs, pivoting instead to the safer ground of same-sex marriage or women’s reproductive rights. Whereas the Republican Party’s convention was full of (inflammatory) references to threats posed by trans people, including some remarks by Mr Trump’s two eldest sons, only two speakers at the Democratic convention mentioned trans people, neither of them in a primetime slot.

Ms Harris’s silence has left space for Mr Trump to fill with footage of her previous commitments (eg, to trans prisoners being able to get gender-affirming treatments) and with claims that, as a popular Republican ad concludes, “Crazy liberal Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” It seems to be resonating. According to new polling by The Economist/YouGov, despite her vow of silence, some 36% of Americans think Ms Harris talks about trans issues too much, compared with 23% who say the same about Mr Trump.

But will it matter?

Republicans hope that outrage over what Mr Trump calls “trans insanity” will be their version of what abortion has done for Democrats, but there is a crucial difference. Whereas many Americans say abortion is a leading reason to vote, few say the same about trans issues. Polling shows that social issues in general feature low on Trump voters’ priority list, and within social issues transgender health care (albeit an imperfect proxy) sits at the very bottom. Mr Trump’s lines clearly play well with his base, and are a sure-fire way of getting a rally audience to its feet, but there is little evidence that this specific issue will recruit many new voters (though Republican strategists claim it can help swing undecided voters, who could prove crucial).

Only Ms Harris knows whether her recent silence is just a ruse until she is elected or whether she has genuinely moderated her stance. If elected, one opportunity to show herself as more in touch with the electorate will come when her administration deals with the most controversial part of Title IX anti-discrimination protections that the Biden administration kicked down the road: how to deal with women’s sports. By then she might be ready to agree with her opponent on one matter: it is an easy question. ■

Related Topics:The US elections of 2024 United States

Up Next

Election mentions jump on company conference calls as Nov. 5 approaches

Don't Miss

What happens in the days after America’s election

Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

Published

1 day ago

February 21, 2025

Business Finance News

Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.