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WTO hikes global trade forecast for 2025; slowdown expected in 2026

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A cargo ship sits outside of the Port of Elizabeth marine terminal seen from Bayonne, New Jersey, U.S., April 9 2025.

Shannon Stapleton | Reuters

The World Trade Organization on Tuesday hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated.

In its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report published on Tuesday, the WTO predicted that trade volume growth in 2025 would stand at 2.4%, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the trade body’s August report.

The outlook for next year is not so rosy, however, with the organization slashing its previous expectation of 1.8% trade volume growth next year to a lackluster 0.5%.

“Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,” the WTO said.

Trade tariffs have become a dominant feature, and headwind, for global commerce since U.S. President Donald Trump shocked friends and foes alike with his widescale tariffs regime in April.

Countries scrambled to reach trade deals with the White House but even allies, such as the U.K., have seen a baseline 10% tariff remain on goods exported to the U.S.

Front-loading imports

Global trade volumes rose sharply in the first half of 2025 — up 4.9% year-on-year — with several factors contributing to the robust expansion.

These included the front-loading of imports into the U.S. in anticipation of higher trade tariffs, and favorable macroeconomic conditions with disinflation, supportive fiscal policies and tight labor markets boosting real incomes and spending in major economies, the WTO said.

Strong growth in emerging markets and increased demand for AI-related goods — including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment — also fueled global trade growth, it added, with AI-related spending driving nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year-on-year in value terms.

Global competition when it comes to developing AI-related products has heated up with both the U.S. and Asia looking to dominate the sector.

The WTO noted that the U.S. accounted for roughly one-fifth of global AI-related trade growth in the first half of 2025. The bulk of the expansion came from Asia, however, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of global AI-related trade growth in the same time period.

Major economies are racing to develop their artificial intelligence capabilities, with both the U.S. and China looking to dominate the sector. The WTO noted that the U.S. accounted for roughly one-fifth of global AI-related trade growth in the first half of 2025. The bulk of the expansion came from Asia, however, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of global AI-related trade growth over the same time period.

“Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications,” the WTO said in its report, noting that “Asia’s export performance was strong in AI-related products, consistent with the worldwide surge in investment in this sector.”

A key downside risk to the latest forecast is the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty to more economies and sectors, WTO economists noted. On the upside, they said sustained growth in trade for AI-related goods and services could provide a medium-term boost to global trade.

Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Although not directly subject to tariffs, services trade can be affected indirectly though links to goods trade and output.

Sharp slowdown

Looking ahead, possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output had already been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes, the WTO noted.

Tariffs aren't going to go away because of legal challenge, says Atlantic's Fred Kempe

Commenting on the organization’s latest outlook, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said “countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025.”

“Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option.” she added.

“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

Economics

Nvidia’s Potential $3 Billion SB Energy Investment Could Reshape AI Infrastructure

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Nvidia's Potential $3 Billion SB Energy Investment Could Reshape AI Infrastructure

Nvidia Reportedly Considers $3 Billion SB Energy Investment

Nvidia is reportedly in discussions to invest as much as $3 billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank Group subsidiary developing a major data center project in Ohio for OpenAI. The potential investment, reported by The Information and subsequently covered by Reuters, would represent another major step in Nvidia’s expanding role in the infrastructure required to power the global artificial intelligence boom.

The talks remain ongoing, meaning the investment has not been finalized and the reported terms could change. Nevertheless, the potential transaction is significant because Nvidia has increasingly moved beyond its traditional role as a supplier of advanced AI chips.

The company is becoming involved in financing, infrastructure and the broader ecosystem required to deploy massive amounts of computing capacity.

Why Nvidia Is Moving Deeper Into AI Infrastructure

The explosive growth of generative AI has created demand for enormous data centers filled with high-performance computing systems. AI models require sophisticated accelerators, networking equipment, storage systems and vast amounts of electricity.

Nvidia has benefited enormously from demand for its AI processors. However, the availability of chips alone does not determine how quickly AI infrastructure can expand. Data centers require land, electricity, cooling systems, networking infrastructure and financing.

By potentially investing in SB Energy, Nvidia could gain a deeper economic relationship with the physical infrastructure supporting demand for its products.

The OpenAI Connection Makes the Deal More Significant

The reported SB Energy investment is connected to a major Ohio data center project being developed for OpenAI. That makes the potential transaction particularly important because OpenAI is one of the world’s largest users of AI computing infrastructure.

Reuters reported that SB Energy is a SoftBank-backed developer working on the Ohio project.

The connection creates a potentially powerful ecosystem involving Nvidia’s chips, SoftBank’s capital and infrastructure capabilities, SB Energy’s data center development and OpenAI’s demand for computing capacity.

Such relationships demonstrate how the AI industry is increasingly becoming an infrastructure business rather than simply a software industry.

Nvidia’s AI Financing Strategy Is Expanding

The potential $3 billion investment comes shortly after other major developments involving Nvidia and AI infrastructure financing.

Reuters reported this week that Nvidia is collaborating with major Wall Street firms on an initiative designed to mobilize as much as $500 billion for AI infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs has also reportedly been discussing participation with investors in Nvidia’s broader financing initiative.

Taken together, these developments indicate that Nvidia sees financing and infrastructure as increasingly important components of the AI economy.

Nvidia’s OpenAI Data Center Commitment Has Also Changed

The potential SB Energy investment comes at a time when Nvidia’s broader financial commitment to the Ohio OpenAI data center project has reportedly been revised.

Reuters reported that Nvidia reduced its planned financial support for the proposed project from an earlier figure of up to $250 billion to less than $120 billion.

The adjustment is important because it demonstrates that Nvidia is balancing its ambition to support AI infrastructure with concerns about financial exposure and project risk.

The potential SB Energy investment should therefore not automatically be interpreted as an indication that Nvidia intends to fund every aspect of the Ohio project.

What the Investment Could Mean for Nvidia Stock

For Nvidia shareholders, deeper involvement in AI infrastructure could provide both opportunities and risks.

The positive argument is straightforward. If Nvidia helps accelerate the construction of data centers, those facilities could create additional demand for Nvidia’s processors and networking products.

However, infrastructure investment also exposes Nvidia to risks beyond semiconductor manufacturing. Data center projects can encounter construction delays, financing problems, electricity constraints and changing customer requirements.

Investors will therefore need to distinguish between Nvidia’s highly profitable chip business and its growing participation in infrastructure financing.

The Bigger AI Infrastructure Trend

The potential SB Energy transaction highlights one of the biggest trends in technology markets: AI infrastructure is becoming a massive capital-intensive industry.

Companies are investing billions of dollars in data centers because demand for AI computing continues to grow. This creates opportunities for semiconductor manufacturers, utilities, construction companies, energy developers, networking businesses and financial institutions.

The economic impact could extend well beyond Silicon Valley.

Regions capable of providing reliable electricity, land, fiber connectivity and favorable business conditions could attract enormous investment.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The most important development will be whether Nvidia and SB Energy actually finalize the reported investment.

Investors should also monitor Nvidia’s broader financing arrangements, OpenAI’s data center expansion, electricity availability and demand for AI computing.

If AI adoption continues accelerating, infrastructure spending could remain one of the largest technology investment themes of the decade.

If demand expectations eventually fall short, however, the enormous capital commitments associated with data centers could create financial pressure across the sector.

Nvidia and the Future of AI Infrastructure

The reported potential $3 billion Nvidia investment in SB Energy illustrates how quickly the company’s strategic role is evolving. Nvidia is no longer simply selling processors to AI companies; it is increasingly participating in the financing and infrastructure ecosystem needed to deploy those processors at enormous scale.

The proposed investment remains unconfirmed, but its significance is clear. The future of artificial intelligence will depend not only on better models and faster chips but also on the construction of massive amounts of physical computing infrastructure.

That makes Nvidia’s relationship with companies such as SB Energy and OpenAI an important story for investors watching the next phase of the AI boom.

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Economics

U.S. Retail Sales Fall for the First Time in Nine Months as Consumer Spending Slows

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U.S. Retail Sales Fall for the First Time in Nine Months as Consumer Spending Slows

U.S. Retail Sales Decline 0.6% in July

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, marking the first monthly drop in nine months and raising fresh questions about the strength of American consumer spending during the second half of 2026. According to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department, retail sales decreased 0.6% in July, the largest monthly decline in 14 months. The result was significantly weaker than economists had anticipated and represented a notable change after several months of relatively strong consumer activity.

The decline does not necessarily mean that the U.S. economy is entering a recession. Retail sales can fluctuate significantly from month to month because of gasoline prices, automobile purchases, promotional events and changes in online shopping patterns. Nevertheless, the July report is important because consumer spending represents a major component of U.S. economic activity. A sustained slowdown could eventually affect business revenues, employment, economic growth and Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.

Why U.S. Retail Sales Fell in July

Several unusual factors contributed to the July decline. One important factor was the fading impact of large tax refunds that had supported household spending earlier in the year. Another was the timing of Amazon’s Prime Day, which occurred in June rather than July and therefore pulled some online purchases forward into the previous month. Lower gasoline prices also reduced the dollar value of receipts at service stations.

Nonstore retailer sales declined 2.2%, while sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers dropped 1.8%. Electronics and appliance stores also recorded a decline, while service-station receipts fell as lower gasoline prices reduced spending measured in dollar terms. At the same time, clothing stores performed better, with sales increasing 1.9%, partly reflecting back-to-school shopping.

Consumer Spending Shows Signs of Losing Momentum

The most important question for economists is whether July’s decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a broader consumer slowdown. The answer remains uncertain.

Retail sales were still approximately 5% higher than a year earlier, demonstrating that consumer demand has not collapsed. The monthly decline therefore needs to be viewed within a broader economic context rather than interpreted as evidence of an immediate recession.

However, the deterioration in July is noteworthy because households have already been dealing with elevated housing costs, borrowing expenses and other living costs. If consumers become more cautious, discretionary purchases could weaken further during the remainder of the year.

What the Retail Sales Report Means for the Federal Reserve

The July retail sales report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A weaker consumer sector reduces some of the pressure on the central bank to maintain restrictive monetary policy if slower demand eventually contributes to softer inflation.

Economists have already adjusted their expectations for third-quarter growth following the retail sales data. Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs reduced its estimate of annualized third-quarter GDP growth to 2.2%.

That does not guarantee an interest-rate cut. The Federal Reserve must consider inflation, employment, wages, consumer demand and financial conditions together. A single weak retail-sales report is unlikely to determine monetary policy by itself.

Online Shopping and the Amazon Prime Day Effect

The timing of Amazon Prime Day is particularly important when interpreting July’s retail figures. A major promotional event can significantly change the seasonal pattern of online purchases.

Because Prime Day occurred in June this year, some purchases that might normally have appeared in July were recorded earlier. Consequently, July’s decline in nonstore retail sales may exaggerate the apparent weakness in underlying consumer demand. Online sales nevertheless remained approximately 8% above their level a year earlier, according to MarketWatch.

This demonstrates why economists analyze monthly retail data carefully rather than relying on a single headline number.

What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Consumer spending remains one of the most important pillars of U.S. economic growth. If households continue spending despite higher living costs and borrowing rates, economic expansion can remain relatively strong.

The risk emerges if weaker retail activity becomes part of a broader pattern involving declining employment, slower wage growth, reduced consumer confidence and weaker business investment. At present, the July data alone do not establish such a trend.

Businesses will therefore be watching subsequent retail reports closely. Retailers may need to adjust inventories, promotions and pricing strategies if consumers become increasingly selective.

U.S. Consumer Spending Outlook for the Rest of 2026

The July retail-sales decline is best interpreted as a warning sign rather than a definitive indication of an economic downturn. Several temporary factors contributed to the result, including lower gasoline prices and the earlier timing of Amazon Prime Day.

Nevertheless, the report confirms that consumer spending should be watched carefully during the second half of 2026. If household demand continues weakening, the implications could extend to corporate earnings, GDP growth and Federal Reserve policy.

For investors and businesses, the key issue is whether July represents a temporary pause after a strong spending period or the beginning of a more sustained normalization in consumer demand. The next several months of employment, inflation and retail-sales data should provide a clearer answer.

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Economics

Macroeconomic Impact of Global Energy Shocks and Shipping Route Realignment in 2026

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Global macroeconomic conditions in August 2026 are heavily shaped by ongoing volatility across international energy markets and key maritime trade corridors. Recent price swings in Brent crude oil—which traded between $80 and $85 per barrel following mid-summer spikes—have reintroduced energy-driven inflation risks into global economic forecasting models.

Energy Price Fluctuations and Headline Inflation
Energy remains the most volatile component of headline consumer price metrics across advanced economies. Price increases in refined petroleum products and natural gas directly impact consumer transportation costs and industrial manufacturing expenses.

Central banks are closely monitoring second-order effects, where sustained energy costs pass through into food production, fertilizer manufacturing, and air freight tariffs. Economists emphasize that while goods deflation supported price stability early in the year, energy market volatility threatens to delay headline inflation’s return to 2% target levels.

Maritime Logistics and Freight Rate Dynamics
Geopolitical friction surrounding major maritime choke points, including the Strait of Hormuz and critical Red Sea transit lanes, has forced container shipping lines to reroute vessels around longer ocean routes. These trade disruptions have driven container freight rates higher and extended transit schedules between major manufacturing hubs in Asia and European import terminals.

Logistics planners report that longer voyage durations require higher fuel burn rates and additional fleet capacity to maintain baseline delivery schedules. Consequently, enterprise supply chains are absorbing higher landed costs for imported components and intermediate goods.

Policy Responses and Industrial Adaptation
Governments and enterprise organizations are enacting multi-pronged strategies to mitigate energy and logistics vulnerabilities:
– Strategic Reserve Utilization: Policy makers are evaluating targeted releases from strategic petroleum reserves to smooth short-term supply disruptions.
– Regional Industrial Reshoring: Manufacturing firms are accelerating nearshoring plans to shorten physical supply chains and lower international freight exposure.
– Commercial Fleet Modernization: Logistics operators are investing in duel-fuel and high-efficiency cargo vessels to buffer against volatile bunker fuel prices.

Core Economic Conclusions
1. Persistent Energy Volatility: Oil market disruptions continue to present immediate upside risks to global headline inflation metrics.
2. Structural Freight Overhead: Rerouted ocean shipping lanes elevate baseline transportation costs for international trade.
3. Nearshoring Momentum: Geographic supply chain diversification is essential for protecting gross profit margins against international supply shocks.

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