Connect with us

Finance

10-year Treasury yield is little changed with all eyes on the U.S. election

Published

on

A specialist trader works inside a post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 23, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Treasury yields were little changed in the early trading Tuesday evening as investors awaited results from the tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged around 4.30%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up 2 basis points to 4.22%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.

Bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win — and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That’s because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, moves that could widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

“If there’s a Republican sweep of House, Senate and the presidency, I expect the bond market to be wobbly,” Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday. “I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise.”

Neither Trump nor Harris really promised fiscal discipline on the campaign trail, raising worries that investors will demand higher yields in exchange for holding Treasuries as the government is forced to issue more and more debt to fund its ballooning spending.

The yield can be expected to approach 4.5% in the event of a Trump win, or fall toward 4% under a Harris victory, according to Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research.

A Harris administration with a divided Congress may prompt bond yields to retreat.

“I think a split Congress, whoever wins the presidency, is probably the favorite for the markets, so that neither candidate can get his or her full plan pushed through,” Siegel said.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will make its next decision on interest rates and is widely expected to slash rates by a quarter point.

Continue Reading

Finance

Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

Published

on

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

Continue Reading

Finance

Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it's time to buy

Published

on

While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.

Continue Reading

Finance

Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

Published

on

Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

Continue Reading

Trending