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401(k) auto-enrollment less effective than expected, study says

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Employers are increasingly putting workers’ 401(k) plan savings on autopilot.

But the positive impact of automated retirement savings is more muted than initially thought, new research finds.

Previously “underexamined” factors — like workers cashing out 401(k) balances when they leave a job — “meaningfully reduce” the long-term impact of policies like automatic enrollment and automatic escalation, according to a new paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Importantly, some of the paper’s co-authors — James Choi of Yale University, and David Laibson and John Beshears of Harvard University — are behavioral economists who pioneered early research into the positive effects of automatic enrollment.

“They are like the OGs [originals],” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, an investment manager. “These are the people who’ve been doing research on this topic now for decades.”

‘Not as positive as we had previously thought’

Automated savings has been a cornerstone of 401(k) policy since Congress passed the Pension Protection Act of 2006.

Policies like auto-enrollment and auto-escalation aim to boost the size of employees’ nest eggs, by automatically enrolling workers in their company 401(k) and then raising (or “escalating”) their savings rate over time.

In this way, people’s tendency towards inertia works in their favor.

401(k) doesn't seem to have the same fanbase that social security has, says Allison Schrager

About two-thirds of 401(k) plans were using auto-enrollment as of 2022, according to survey data from the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group. Of them, 78% used auto-escalation.

Overall, their effect on savings is positive, “just not as positive as we had previously thought based on the research we had done before,” Choi said in an interview.

The group’s initial research didn’t track results for workers who left jobs where they’d been automatically enrolled.

This research update sought to do a broader analysis, incorporating factors like job turnover, Choi said.

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Overall, Choi and his co-authors recently found that auto-enrollment raised average 401(k) contribution rates by 0.6 percentage points of income over workers’ careers.

That’s a 72% decrease in effectiveness from the 2.2-percentage-point boost that was extrapolated by the “results of early pioneering papers,” the paper said.

“You’re talking 1.6% of income less saved per year,” Choi said. “If you were to just add that up over a 40-year career, you’re talking more than a half year of income saved.”

When also accounting for compounding interest on those savings, it can amount to a “quite substantial” financial difference, he added.

The impact of 401(k) leakage

The disparity is largely a function of so-called “leakage” from 401(k) plans. meaning the early withdrawal of funds before retirement.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out their 401(k) plans each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Such leakage amounted to $92.4 billion in 2015, according to EBRI’s most recent data.

Workers may withdraw 401(k) plan funds before their employer match is fully vested, meaning they’d forgo that free money.

Additionally, just 43% of workers defaulted into auto-escalation of their savings rates ultimately accepted a higher contribution rate after one year, the National Bureau of Economic Research paper found.

By comparison, early research conducted by behavioral economists like Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi estimated that share around 85%.

Job turnover also complicates auto-escalation in addition to auto-enrollment, PGIM’s Blanchett said.

For example, a worker’s escalated contribution rate may reset at a lower savings rate if they were to join a new employer’s 401(k) plan.

While auto-escalation isn’t necessarily a reliable way to get people to save more money, auto-enrollment has proven “very successful,” Blanchett said.

Maximizing your Social Security benefits

He believes the effectiveness of auto-enrollment shouldn’t be judged based on 401(k) leakage, which is a separate policy issue, he said.

“I think auto-enrollment does a spectacular job at getting individuals in the plan,” Blanchett said. “But we still have this massive leakage issue. It still exists whether you have auto-enrollment or you don’t.”

That said, there’s room for improvement with automated savings.

“I’d like us to get to a point where 7% or 8% is the median default savings rate,” Blanchett said.

When coupled with an employer match, the typical worker would be saving 10% or more of their salaries, a bar workers should generally strive for, he said.

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Here’s how to know if active ETFs are right for your portfolio

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Exchange-traded funds are generally known for passive strategies. But there has been a surge in actively managed ETFs as investors seek lower costs and more precision, experts say.

Active ETFs represented just more than 2% of the U.S. ETF market at the beginning of 2019. But these funds have since grown more than 20% each year, rising to a market share of more than 7% in 2024, according to Morningstar.

Some 328 active ETFs have launched in 2024 through September, compared to 352 in 2023, which has been “kind of remarkable,” said Stephen Welch, a senior manager research analyst for Morningstar, referring to the growth of ETFs this year.

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Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

There are a few reasons for the active ETF growth, experts say.

In 2019, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued the “ETF rule,” which “streamlined the approval process” and made it easier for portfolio managers to create new ETFs, Welch said.

Meanwhile, investors and advisors have increasingly shifted toward lower-cost funds. Plus, there has been a trend of mutual fund providers converting funds to ETFs.

Still, only a fraction of issuers have been successful in the active ETF market. The top 10 issuers controlled 74% of assets, as of March 31, according to Morningstar. As of October, only 40% of active stock ETFs had more than $100 million in assets.

The “biggest thing” to focus on is the health of an active ETF, explained Welch, warning investors to “stay away from ones that don’t have a lot of assets.”

Active ETFs allow ‘tactical adjustments’

While passive ETFs replicate an index, such as the S&P 500, active managers aim to outperform a specific benchmark. Like passive ETFs, the active version is typically more tax-friendly that similar mutual funds.

“Active ETFs allow managers to make tactical adjustments, which may help navigate market volatility more smoothly than a passive index,” said certified financial planner Jon Ulin, managing principal of Ulin & Co. Wealth Management in Boca Raton, Florida.

These funds can also provide “more unique strategies” compared to the traditional index space, he said.  

The average active ETF fee is 0.65%, which is 36% cheaper than the average mutual fund, according to a Morningstar report released in April. But the asset-weighted average expense ratio for passive funds was 0.11% in 2023.

However, there is the potential for underperformance, as many active managers fail to beat their benchmarks, Ulin said. Plus, some active ETFs are newer, with less performance data to review their performance.

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Ahead of U.S. election, financial advisors say public debt is top concern

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Voters work on their ballot at a polling station at the Elena Bozeman Government Center in Arlington, Virginia, on September 20, 2024.

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Many investors worry about how the outcome of the presidential election will impact their investments.

But there’s another risk financial advisors are focused on — public debt, according to a new survey from Natixis Investment Managers.

Most U.S. advisors — 68% — rank public debt as the top economic risk, while 64% of advisors worldwide said the same, according to the survey of 2,700 respondents in 20 countries, including 300 in the U.S.

“No matter who wins the election, they’re convinced public debt is going to continue to go up,” said Dave Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight.

The term public debt is used interchangeably by the U.S. Treasury with national debt and federal debt.

The government has borrowed to pay expenses over time, comparable to how an individual might use a credit card and not pay off the full balance each month. The U.S. national debt is now more than $35 trillion and growing.

The next U.S. president and Congress will inherit that government spending dilemma, as well as looming trust fund depletion dates for Social Security and Medicare.

More individuals now believe they are on their own when it comes to funding their retirements, the Natixis survey have shown, according to Goodsell.

Experts say there are certain moves individual investors can make to limit the financial exposure they have to those broader risks.

“You cannot control what Congress is doing, but you can control how you plan, how you save, invest and react to the news,” said Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Cheng is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Diversify your portfolio

50% of Americans believe election outcome will directly impact their personal finances, survey finds

Adjust your tax exposure

Higher national debt means taxes may also likely go up.

“We can’t forecast what tax rates will be in the future,” Cheng said.

Having money in a mix of tax-deferred, tax free and taxable accounts can be helpful, because it gives investors flexibility to limit their taxable withdrawals.

Roth individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans allow savers invest post-tax money toward retirement. Taking advantage of other kinds of accounts — 529 college savings plans or health savings accounts for medical expenses — may provide tax advantages for money spent on qualified expenses.

Pare back personal debts

While the U.S. national debt is high, consumer debts have also been climbing.

“The sheer amount of debt that is outstanding that is charging more than 10% per year is shocking,” Glassman said.

To help keep those balances in check, and how much they cost, it helps to have good credit, Cheng said.

Consumers can help reduce the cost of their debts by paying their bills on time, which then lets them borrow money at better interest rates on everything from cars to homes, and can even help to reduce car insurance costs, she said.

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Why parents will pay $500,000 for Ivy League admissions consulting

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Ivy League architecture at Princeton University.

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At the nation’s top schools, including many in the Ivy League, acceptance rates hover near all-time lows.

“College admissions only ever gets more competitive and there’s a lot of stress from families about the stakes and how to get in,” said Thomas Howell, the founder of Forum Education, a New-York based tutoring company.

For some families, getting their child into a top school is an investment, and to that end there is almost no limit to what they will spend on tutors, college counselors and test prep.

‘Top 20% or bust’

Meanwhile, as the sticker price at some private colleges nears six figures a year, some students have opted for less expensive public schools or alternatives to a degree altogether. For those willing to pay for a four-year, private college, it should be worthwhile, the sentiment often goes.

“The value proposition of higher education is splitting,” Howell said, “it’s either a top school or a real value.”

For this crop of college applicants, it’s “top 20% or bust,” he added.

As a result, universities in the so-called “Ivy Plus” are experiencing a record-breaking increase in applications, according to a report by the Common Application.

The “Ivy Plus” is a group that generally includes the eight private colleges that comprise the Ivy League — Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, Princeton and Yale — plus the University of Chicago, Duke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford.

To get into this elite group of schools, many families look for outside help to get a leg up.

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“The consensus is it’s only worth going to college if it’s a life changing college,” said Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York. 

“What hasn’t changed is people with enormous resources willing to invest over $100,000, which is about 20% of our clients,” Lakhani said. “This might be the single largest thing they’ve spent on other than a car.”

Lakhani Coaching’s clients spend an average of $58,000 on counseling, but some have spent as much as $800,000 over the course of several years, according to Lakhani.

At that price point, students receive “essentially a ‘SEAL-team’ level tutor through almost every class,” he said. Lakhani was equating the academic support with the highest level of organization and execution that epitomizes the training of a Navy Seal, the special operation force that stands for sea, air and land teams.

Lakhani charges $1,600 an hour for his services, the top rate at his company, and still, families often choose to work with him over the less senior coaches there, some of whom charge about $290 an hour, he said.

Even if he charged more, that dynamic likely would not change, he added.

Parents often say, “it’s worth the investment,” he added. “That word investment comes up over and over again.”

Christopher Rim, founder and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education.

Courtesy: Christopher Rim

At Command Education in New York, counselors meet with students weekly starting in eight or ninth grade. Families are charged $120,000 per year, not including the Standards Admission Test (SAT) or American College Test (ACT) test prep. By graduation, they’ve spent roughly half a million dollars.

Command caps the clientele at 200 students worldwide, mostly on a first-come, first-served basis, although they will turn students away if they don’t think they can deliver the desired outcome, according to Christopher Rim, the founder and CEO.

“At the end of the day, results are most important,” he said.

‘This is not a neighborhood tutor’

‘An imperfect meritocracy’

Legacy Admissions debate: Why schools are ending the practice

“Higher education is an imperfect meritocracy,” Lakhani said.

However, the wealthiest students hailing form the country’s top private schools are primarily competing amongst themselves as schools look to build a diversified class.

“When you are applying from an affluent family, the people you are competing against are people in a similar bucket,” Lakhani said.

The irony is most don’t want to admit that they’ve received private help, even if they are fortunate enough to get it.

“Every parent wants to say their child does it on their own,” Rim said.

Is an Ivy League degree worth it?

A study by Harvard University-based non-partisan, non-profit research group Opportunity Insights compared the estimated future income of waitlisted students who ultimately attended Ivy League schools with those who went to public universities instead.

In the end, the group of Harvard University- and Brown University-based economists found that attending an Ivy League college has a “statistically insignificant impact” on earnings.

However, there are other advantages beyond income.

For instance, attending a college in the “Ivy-plus” category rather than a highly selective public institution nearly doubles the chances of attending an elite graduate school and triples the chances of working at a prestigious firm, according to Opportunity Insights.

Leadership positions are disproportionately held by graduates of a few highly selective private colleges, the Opportunity Insights report found. 

Further, it increases students’ chances of ultimately reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 60%.

“Highly selective private colleges serve as gateways to the upper echelons of society,” the researchers said.

“Because these colleges currently admit students from high-income families at substantially higher rates than students from lower-income families with comparable academic credentials, they perpetuate privilege,” they added.

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