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401(k) auto-enrollment less effective than expected, study says

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Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Employers are increasingly putting workers’ 401(k) plan savings on autopilot.

But the positive impact of automated retirement savings is more muted than initially thought, new research finds.

Previously “underexamined” factors — like workers cashing out 401(k) balances when they leave a job — “meaningfully reduce” the long-term impact of policies like automatic enrollment and automatic escalation, according to a new paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Importantly, some of the paper’s co-authors — James Choi of Yale University, and David Laibson and John Beshears of Harvard University — are behavioral economists who pioneered early research into the positive effects of automatic enrollment.

“They are like the OGs [originals],” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, an investment manager. “These are the people who’ve been doing research on this topic now for decades.”

‘Not as positive as we had previously thought’

Automated savings has been a cornerstone of 401(k) policy since Congress passed the Pension Protection Act of 2006.

Policies like auto-enrollment and auto-escalation aim to boost the size of employees’ nest eggs, by automatically enrolling workers in their company 401(k) and then raising (or “escalating”) their savings rate over time.

In this way, people’s tendency towards inertia works in their favor.

401(k) doesn't seem to have the same fanbase that social security has, says Allison Schrager

About two-thirds of 401(k) plans were using auto-enrollment as of 2022, according to survey data from the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group. Of them, 78% used auto-escalation.

Overall, their effect on savings is positive, “just not as positive as we had previously thought based on the research we had done before,” Choi said in an interview.

The group’s initial research didn’t track results for workers who left jobs where they’d been automatically enrolled.

This research update sought to do a broader analysis, incorporating factors like job turnover, Choi said.

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Overall, Choi and his co-authors recently found that auto-enrollment raised average 401(k) contribution rates by 0.6 percentage points of income over workers’ careers.

That’s a 72% decrease in effectiveness from the 2.2-percentage-point boost that was extrapolated by the “results of early pioneering papers,” the paper said.

“You’re talking 1.6% of income less saved per year,” Choi said. “If you were to just add that up over a 40-year career, you’re talking more than a half year of income saved.”

When also accounting for compounding interest on those savings, it can amount to a “quite substantial” financial difference, he added.

The impact of 401(k) leakage

The disparity is largely a function of so-called “leakage” from 401(k) plans. meaning the early withdrawal of funds before retirement.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out their 401(k) plans each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Such leakage amounted to $92.4 billion in 2015, according to EBRI’s most recent data.

Workers may withdraw 401(k) plan funds before their employer match is fully vested, meaning they’d forgo that free money.

Additionally, just 43% of workers defaulted into auto-escalation of their savings rates ultimately accepted a higher contribution rate after one year, the National Bureau of Economic Research paper found.

By comparison, early research conducted by behavioral economists like Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi estimated that share around 85%.

Job turnover also complicates auto-escalation in addition to auto-enrollment, PGIM’s Blanchett said.

For example, a worker’s escalated contribution rate may reset at a lower savings rate if they were to join a new employer’s 401(k) plan.

While auto-escalation isn’t necessarily a reliable way to get people to save more money, auto-enrollment has proven “very successful,” Blanchett said.

Maximizing your Social Security benefits

He believes the effectiveness of auto-enrollment shouldn’t be judged based on 401(k) leakage, which is a separate policy issue, he said.

“I think auto-enrollment does a spectacular job at getting individuals in the plan,” Blanchett said. “But we still have this massive leakage issue. It still exists whether you have auto-enrollment or you don’t.”

That said, there’s room for improvement with automated savings.

“I’d like us to get to a point where 7% or 8% is the median default savings rate,” Blanchett said.

When coupled with an employer match, the typical worker would be saving 10% or more of their salaries, a bar workers should generally strive for, he said.

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Personal Finance

The key issues and who stands to benefit

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

As negotiations ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda, there are key issues to watch, according to policy experts.   

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, released a preliminary partial text of its portion of the bill on Friday evening. However, the bill could change significantly before the final vote. The full committee will debate and advance this legislation on Tuesday.

With control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republican lawmakers can pass Trump’s package without Democratic support via a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster with a simple majority vote.

But reconciliation involves multiple steps, and the proposals must fit within a limited budget framework. That could be tricky given competing priorities, experts say. 

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“The narrow [Republican] majority in the House is going to make that process very difficult” because a handful of votes can block the bill, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Plus, some lawmakers want a “more fiscally responsible package,” which could impact individual provisions, according to Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As negotiations continue, here are some key tax proposals that could impact millions of Americans.

Extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

The preliminary House Ways and Means text includes some temporary and permanent enhancements beyond the TCJA. These include boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, tax bracket inflation adjustments, the estate tax exemption and pass-through business deduction, among others.

Child tax credit expansion

Some lawmakers are also pushing for bigger tax breaks than what’s currently offered via the TCJA provisions.

“The child tax credit is one that we’re watching very closely,” Akabas said. “There’s a lot of bipartisan agreement on preserving and hopefully expanding that.”  

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The House in February 2024 passed a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit, which would have boosted access and refundability. The bill didn’t clear the Senate, but Republicans expressed interest in revisiting the issue.  

The early House Ways and Means text proposes expanding the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child for four years starting in 2025.

‘SALT’ deduction relief

Another TCJA provision — the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT” — was added to the 2017 legislation to help fund other tax breaks. That provision will also expire after 2025.

Before the change, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction for SALT. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners. 

Repealing the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. In a policy reversal, Trump has also voiced support for a more generous SALT deduction. 

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle-income,” since lower earners typically don’t itemize tax deductions, Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, previously told CNBC.

The SALT deduction was absent from the preliminary House Ways and Means text. But Congressional negotiations are ongoing.

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Trump’s campaign ideas

On top of TCJA extensions, Trump has also recently renewed calls for additional tax breaks he pitched on the campaign trail, including no tax on tips, tax-free overtime pay and tax-exempt Social Security benefits. These ideas were not yet included in the early House Ways and Means text.  

However, there are lingering questions about the specifics of these provisions, including possible guardrails to prevent abuse, experts say.

For example, you could see a questionable “reclassification of income” to qualify for no tax on tips or overtime pay, said Muresianu. “But there are ways you could mitigate the damage.”

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Personal Finance

How top tax rates compare, as Trump eyes hike for wealthy

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U.S. President Donald Trump points as he attends the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon hosted by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 12, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As Republicans wrestle with funding their massive spending and tax package, President Donald Trump is eyeing a possible tax hike for the highest earners.

The idea, which lacks Republican support, could return the top federal income tax rate to 2017 levels for some of the wealthiest Americans.  

In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, to help preserve Medicaid and tax cuts for everyday Americans.

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Trump on Friday expressed openness to the tax hike on the wealthiest Americans in a Truth Social post, noting he would “graciously accept” the tax increase to “help the lower and middle income workers.”

“Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” he wrote.

Enacted by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 created sweeping tax breaks for individuals and businesses. Most will sunset after 2025 without an extension from Congress.

The TCJA temporarily dropped the highest income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. For 2025, the 37% rate kicks in for single filers once taxable income exceeds $626,350.    

How Trump’s idea compares to historic rates

If signed into law, a top 39.6% income tax rate would return wealthy taxpayers to pre-TCJA levels from 2013 to 2017. Before that, the top rate was 35% during most of the early 2000s, according to data collected by the Tax Policy Center. The highest top rate was 94% from 1944-1945.

However, this data doesn’t reflect how much income was subject to top rates or the value of standard and itemized deductions during these periods, the organization noted.

Trump’s tax package faces a ‘math issue’

Push for higher taxes on the wealthy: Inside President Trump's tax agenda

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Real estate and gold vs. stocks: Best long-term investment

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Brendon Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Some Americans believe real estate and gold are the best long-term investments. Advisors think that’s misguided.

About 37% of surveyed U.S. adults view real estate as the best investment for the long haul, according to a new report by Gallup, a global analytics and advisory firm. That figure is roughly unchanged from 36% last year

Gold was the second-most-popular choice, with 23% of surveyed respondents. That’s five points higher than last year. 

To compare, just 16% put their faith in stocks or mutual funds as the best long-term investment — a decline of six percentage points from 2024’s report, Gallup found.

The firm polled 1,006 adults in early April.

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Financial advisors caution that this preference is likely more about buzz than fundamentals. Be careful about getting caught up in the hype, said certified financial planner Lee Baker, the founder, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta.

Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida, agreed: “People are always chasing what’s hot, and that’s the stupidest thing you could do.”

Here’s what investors need to know about gold and real estate, and how to incorporate them in your portfolio.

Why gold and real estate are alluring

Baker understands why people like the idea of real estate and gold: Both are tangible objects versus stocks. 

“You buy a house, you can see it, feel it, touch it. Your investment in stocks perhaps doesn’t feel real,” said Baker, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

While the preference for gold grew this year, the share of Gallup respondents who think it’s the best long-term investment is still below the record high of 34% in 2011. Back then, gold investors sought refuge amid high unemployment, a crippled housing market and volatile stocks, Gallup noted.

Gold prices have been trending upward this spring. Spot gold prices hit an all-time high of above $3,500 per ounce in late April. One year ago, prices were about $2,200 to $2,300 an ounce.

Real estate has also drawn more interest in recent years amid high demand from buyers and accelerating prices. The median sale price for an existing home in the U.S. in March was $403,700, according to Bankrate. That is down from the record high of $426,900 in June.

Why stocks are the better bet

While real estate and gold are two assets that can appreciate in value over time, the stock market will generally grow at a much higher rate, experts say.

The annualized total return of S&P 500 stocks is 10.29% over the 30-year period ending in April, per Morningstar Direct data. Over the same time frame, the annualized total return for real estate is 8.78% and for gold, 7.38%.

McClanahan also points out that unlike gold and real estate, stocks are diversified assets, meaning you’re spreading out your cash versus concentrating it into one investment.

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How to include gold, real estate into your portfolio

If you are among the Americans that want exposure to real estate or gold, there are different ways to do it wisely, experts say.

For real estate, financial advisors say investors might look into real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, or consider investments that bundle real estate stocks, like exchange-traded funds.

An REIT is a publicly traded company that invests in different types of income-producing residential or commercial real estate, such as apartments or office buildings.

In many cases, you can buy shares of publicly traded REITs like you would a stock, or shares of a REIT mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. REIT investors typically make money through dividend payments.

Real estate mutual funds and exchange-traded funds will typically invest in multiple REITs and in the real estate market broadly. It’s even more diversified than investing in a single REIT.

Either way, you’re exposed to real estate without concentrating into a single property, and it will help diversify your portfolio, McClanahan said. 

Similar to gold — instead of stocking up on gold bullions, consider investing in gold through ETFs.

That way you avoid having to deal with finding a place to store or hide physical gold, you wash off the stress of it getting stolen or making sure it’s covered by your home insurance policy, experts say. 

“With the ETF, you actually get the value of the return of gold, but you don’t actually own it,” McClanahan said.

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