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Fed’s Waller ‘leaning toward’ a rate cut, but worries about inflation

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he is anticipating an interest rate cut in December but is concerned about recent trends on inflation that could change his mind.

“Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said in remarks before a monetary policy forum in Washington.

However, he noted that the “decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.”

Waller cited recent data indicating that progress on inflation may be “stalling.”

In October, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed headline inflation moving up to 2.3% annually and core prices, which exclude the cost of food and energy, moving up to 2.8%. The Fed targets a 2% rate.

Though the data was in line with Wall Street expectations, it showed an increase from the prior month and was evidence that despite the progress, the central bank’s goal has proved elusive.

“Overall, I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute,” Waller said, referring to mixed martial arts. “But let me assure you that submission is inevitable — inflation isn’t getting out of the octagon.”

Markets expect the Fed to lop another quarter percentage point off its benchmark overnight borrowing rate when it meets Dec. 17-18. That would follow a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November.

“As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting,” Waller said.

Waller said he will watch incoming employment and inflation data closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics this week will release reports on job openings and nonfarm payrolls, the latter coming after gains in October came in at a paltry 12,000, due largely to labor strikes and weather issues.

Even with the slowing progress on inflation, Waller said broader economic health has him feeling like it will be appropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.

“After we cut by 75 basis points, I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard,” he said.

Economics

Trump plans to nominate Paul Atkins as SEC chair in crypto-friendly move

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Paul Atkins, founder and chief executive officer of Patomak Global Partners LLC, speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Monday, May 1, 2017. 

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump, keeping with his promise for a crypto-friendly administration, plans to nominate former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins to head the agency, according to his Truth Social post.

Currently the CEO at Patomak Global Partners, Atkins is a well-known veteran of the financial world and Republican political circles specifically. He had been widely expected to get the position as the nation’s top financial market regulator.

If confirmed, Atkins would succeed Gary Gensler, a widely reviled figure in the digital currency community for his many efforts to clamp down on the $3.5 trillion crypto market. Trump has promised a easier path for bitcoin and its myriad peers, and the market has soared since his election victory on Nov. 5.

Trump’s position on crypto mirrors his larger pro-deregulation stance prevalent during his first time in office.

Atkins served as SEC commissioner from 2002-08, under then-President George W. Bush. Prior to that, he also had served in other roles at the regulator body in the division of corporate finance.

Along with adopting a pro-crypto stance, the prospective nominee was critical of some of the reforms that emerged from the global financial crisis in 2008. Specifically, he criticized the Dodd-Frank legislation as too burdensome on the banking industry.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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Private payrolls grew by 146,000 in November, less than expected, ADP says

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Private payrolls grew by 146,000 in November, less than expected, ADP says

Private payrolls growth was less than expected in November, reflecting a slowing labor market, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 146,000 on the month, below the downwardly revised 184,000 in October and less than the Dow Jones estimate for 163,000.

Education and health services led job creation, adding 50,000 positions on the month. That was followed by construction with 30,000 new jobs, trade, transportation and utilities with 28,000 additions, and the other services category, which contributed 20,000 jobs.

Manufacturing lost 26,000 positions on the month. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees also reported a drop of 17,000.

Wage growth accelerated, by 4.8%, a faster gain than October, the first time that has happened in 25 months.

“While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said. “Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”

Even with the lower-than-expected total and downward October revision, ADP’s count was still well ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count, which showed an increase of just 12,000 jobs in October.

The BLS report is scheduled to be released Friday and is expected to show growth of 214,000, according to Dow Jones, after the Boeing strike and storms in the Southeast lowered the October total.

Correction: Wage growth accelerated, by 4.8%, a faster gain than October, the first time that has happened in 25 months. An earlier version misstated the number of months. This story was also updated to correct the name of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Would you put Pete Hegseth in the nuclear chain-of-command?

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THE LAST time the Senate formally rejected a president’s cabinet nominee came in 1989 when John Tower was denied the honour of becoming George H.W. Bush’s defence secretary because of his boozing and womanising. Time may be linear but politics is cyclical. The next entry in this ledger could well be Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s choice for defence secretary, because of his boozing and womanising.

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