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KPMG Global Economic Outlook forecasts slight global GDP growth

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KPMG International forecasts a slight increase in global GDP growth in 2025, followed by a dampening in 2026 due to the incoming U.S. administration’s expected policies.

The December 2024 KPMG Global Economic Outlook reflects the continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty slowing down central banks efforts to return to sustainable growth. As such, it anticipates GDP growth picking up from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, before decreasing to 3.0% in 2026.

KPMG forecasts the pace of inflation will continue cooling between now (4.5%) and mid-2025 (3.5%). “Thereafter, the forecast depends heavily on the pace of tariffs and whether we see a full-blown trade war erupt,” the report reads, citing elevated geopolitical risk and the outcomes of the U.S. election, such as inflationary trade, immigration policies and tariffs. “Bond yields have already moved up in response to fears of mounting federal debt and higher inflation. Any major shift in tariffs in the U.S. could trigger retaliatory measures.”

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“The data in our latest report highlights the concerted effort that was being made by central banks throughout the world to control the cost of living and inflation challenges facing everyone, including businesses, right now,” Regina Mayor, global head of Clients & Markets at KPMG International, said in a statement. “While there was cautious optimism of a return to eventual sustainable growth, we’re now in a ‘wait and see’ phase with much depending on a future potentially driven by reciprocal tariffs.”

KPMG sees mergers and acquisition activity poised to increase with lower rates and stores of excess capital in the private equity space. However, “policy uncertainty, anti-corporate sentiment and protectionist policies” could curb large cross-border deals as heightened policy uncertainty tends to reduce the number and speed of transactions.

Fiscal policy may be more stimulative, the report says, with market participants expecting a new wave of stimulus in the form of pensions, healthcare and defense. Tax cuts are also expected to be extended in the U.S., but it remains to be seen how multinationals outside of the U.S. will be treated.

“Our latest forecast highlights the tightrope political and business leaders are now walking,” Benjamin Shoesmith, senior economist at KPMG US, said in a statement. “For many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, we’re seeing a shift from the battle against inflation to guiding economies toward a soft landing. It’s a monumental challenge balancing price stability and employment without quashing GDP growth. The tailwind from lower rates will benefit firms and consumers and likely spark mergers and acquisitions activity. Central banks must stay the course and avoid the temptation to cut interest rates too early or too fast as this could derail progress.”

Shoesmith said that while he expects growth nearing pre-prandemic rates, volatility will also rise. He said leaders’ top concerns are policy uncertainty as a result of the U.S. election, challenges of artificial intelligence, more frequent and adverse weather events and elevated geopolitical risk.

“Our long-term view is that we can see a return to more sustainable growth that edges closer to pre-pandemic levels, but with two significant caveats,” Shoesmith continued. “The first is that central banks will need to hold their nerve and avoid the temptation to pivot on policies before they pay off. The second — and arguably most profound caveat — is the current geopolitical crisis. If the challenges facing the Middle East and Ukraine continue to deepen, leaders could be faced with a fresh set of dilemmas that run far deeper than GDP.”

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Accounting

Sage releases AI Trust Label, calls for AI certification

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Accounting solutions platform Sage announced that its products will come with a new “AI Trust Label”  meant to provide customers with clear, accessible information about the way AI functions across its product line. 

The Sage AI Trust Label is designed as a shorthand symbol that communicates the company’s commitment to safety, ethics, and responsibility in its AI systems, assuring customers that any Sage product featuring this label adheres to specific criteria, frameworks, and safeguards. For instance, it would communicate that the AI solution complies with global standards such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework; that ethical principles like fairness, explainability, and security are embedded into the design; and that Sage rigorously upholds data privacy, user consent and governance protocols. 

In this respect, Sage Chief Technology Officer Aaron Harris said it could be seen as both a “quality seal” as well as an “ingredients” or facts label. 

Sage Trust Label

“We’re being transparent with our customers on the facts around AI in each product, from data sourcing to machine language models to how we train the AI. At a glance, the AI Trust Label gives users a clear, unified symbol across all Sage products that are built with responsible ethics in mind. And if they want to dig deeper, the Sage Trust and Security Hub lays out exactly how each product handles customer data, keeps it safe, and stays compliant—so they can use AI with confidence,” he said in an email. 

The label itself is designed to be both visible and non-intrusive. Customers will encounter it in key interface areas such as settings, dashboards, help menus, onboarding flows, and during product updates. In some cases, it may appear as a persistent icon—like in the upper-right corner of the interface—while in others, it may surface contextually when users engage with AI features.

“This immediacy is central to Sage’s approach: transparency isn’t buried in documentation. It’s embedded in the experience,” said Harris. 

Later this year, Sage will begin rolling out the AI Trust Label across selected AI-powered products in the UK and US. Customers will see the label within the product experience and have access to additional details via Sage’s Trust & Security Hub. The label was designed based on direct feedback from SMBs and reflects the signals they said they need to build confidence in using AI tools.

Calls for AI certification system

Sage also called on industry and government players to develop a transparent, certified AI labelling system that encourages wider adoption of the technology. Sage’s own AI Trust Label is designed as both a proof-of-concept and a potential foundation for a broader certification framework with transparency at its core. 

Harris said that while things are still in the early stages, Sage is engaging with industry peers and monitoring regulatory developments closely with the goal being to contribute meaningfully—whether through direct collaboration, convening stakeholders, or supporting emerging standards that align with its values. Sage has already initiated conversations with key players and plans to share its own framework as a starting point for broader discussions. Sage, he said, is taking a lead role in advocating for trustworthy AI adoption across SMBs and beyond.

Ideally, according to Harris, such a system would require developers to demonstrate adherence to key principles, including transparency (Clear documentation of how AI models function, make decisions, and use data); ethics (Compliance with fairness, bias mitigation, and inclusivity standards); security (Robust safeguards against data breaches and misuse) and accountability (Mechanisms for monitoring, auditing, and addressing risks throughout the AI lifecycle.) Certification could also include independent validation of these practices by third-party auditors or regulatory bodies.

Harris said Sage envisions a certification system akin to NIST AI Risk Management Framework compliance, where independent third parties inspect and certify AI solutions based on established criteria. Alternatively, it could also resemble professional licensing systems (e.g., CPA licenses), where governmental or industry bodies issue certifications after rigorous evaluation. Such a system would ideally combine technical audits, ethical assessments, and ongoing oversight to ensure long-term trustworthiness. 

While he conceded that individual developers theoretically could create their own labels as Sage has done, a unified industry-wide certification system would better ensure consistency, transparency, and trust across industries. 

“When standards aren’t aligned, it creates confusion, especially for small and mid-sized businesses that don’t have the resources to navigate a patchwork of rules. A coordinated effort between industry and government would establish universally recognized benchmarks for ethical AI development, encourage broader adoption of AI by reducing uncertainty around its safety and reliability, and foster collaboration and innovation across industries… In the accounting field, where data sensitivity, regulatory demands, and financial decision-making converge, having a clear AI labelling framework can support automation and insights without compromising trust,” he said. 

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Accounting

How Miley Cyrus hid drug purchases from her accountant

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Miley Cyrus shared in a recent podcast interview about her past drug use and how she hid those purchases from her accountant by calling them “vintage clothes.”

The 32-year-old Grammy-winning singer said that drugs were a large part of the creative process recording her 2015 album “Miley Cyrus & Her Dead Petz.”

Miley Cyrus
Miley Cyrus at the 2025 Met Gala

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​​”The drugs were the biggest cost, which to hide those from my accountant, we called them ‘vintage clothes,'” Cyrus said on an episode of The Ringer’s “Every Single Album” podcast. “So she would get these checks for thousands of dollars worth of vintage clothes.”

“Every time she saw me, she’d be like, ‘Where’s that, like, $15,000 original John Lennon T-shirt that you bought?'” she continued. “I was like, ‘Oh, it’s upstairs. … We just really want to protect it. It’s really delicate.'”

Cyrus said she ‘bought a lot of ‘vintage clothes’ that year,” and has since been vocal about getting sober from marijuana and alcohol. 

“I’m so glad I survived that time in my life,” she said. “I would definitely not encourage anyone else to go this hard, but the fact that I got through it, I’m very glad I got to do it.”

Cyrus is currently publicizing her ninth studio album, “Something Beautiful,” which released on May 30.

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‘Big Beautiful tax Bill’ elicits opposition, but will likely pass

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House Lawmakers Pass Budget Bill Ahead Of Speaker Johnson's Memorial Day Deadline
US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Kevin Dietsch/Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/Gett

The House-passed version of the Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” now in the Senate, is almost certain to pass in one form or another, despite threats by budget hawks to oppose it if certain cuts are not made, and by blue state Republicans who want different ceilings on the state and local tax deduction. 

The alternative — a significant tax hike at the end of the year — is, for many, too radical to contemplate. Nevertheless, the time between now and the vote to finalize it will see extreme bargaining and chipping away at various provisions to make it palatable to various factions in both the Senate and the House. It may, however, be difficult to meet President Trump’s desire to have it on his desk awaiting his signature by July 4. 

“It’s tough to spend a lot of time on a proposal until it has been approved,” said Stephen Mankowski, past president of the National Conference of CPA Practitioners. “Over the past several weeks, AICPA committees have been going over the provisions, and finding some good, and others not so good. Whatever it is, we know something will pass, because otherwise all of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions will expire at the end of the year. In a lot of cases, what this does is make some things permanent. It will be interesting to see how things will flow out of the Senate. Other than non-useful information that we see with people picking certain little clauses, there hasn’t been a lot of press about the bill.”

The exemption from tax of tips and overtime pay is in the bill, but the exemption of Social Security benefits is not.

(Listen:The state of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and more.“)

Mankowski named the decoupling of theft losses from the federally declared disaster requirement as a needed legislative priority, given the proliferation of cyber-crime. He cited the NCCPAP agenda for its 2025 meeting: “Unreimbursed personal theft losses due to cyber-crime are not deductible unless they are due to a federally declared disaster. The impact is magnified when retirement funds are lost, requiring the amount to be included in income as a distribution from a retirement plan along with possible exposure to a 10% excise tax if the distribution occurred prior to the taxpayer reaching age 59½.”

Mankowski remarked that although the proposed legislation does not eliminate the tax on Social Security benefits, an increase in the senior citizen standard deduction by $4,000 would help offset some but not all of the tax on Social Security. But it would be beneficial to file separately if one spouse is working and the other is retired. 

He is happy that the legislation addresses the Form 1099-K threshold by raising it from $600 to $20,000, with a transaction threshold of 200 transactions. “That’s a positive because otherwise you could sell me your desk for $600 and be required to report it on a Form 1099, whereas under the new provision you can sell an entire office of furniture and it would not be over 200 transactions,” he said.  

Other provisions in the House bill, according to Bill Nemeth, executive director of the Georgia Association of Enrolled Agents, include:

  • Student loan debt being eliminated if the student dies; 
  • An increase in the Child Tax Credit to $2,500 for four years, followed by reversion to $2,000; 
  • The federal estate tax exemption going to $15 million; 
  • 529 Plan funds being allowed to be used for elementary, secondary and home-school education; 
  • A partial charitable deduction for non-itemizers at $300; 
  • The qualified business income deduction being increased to 23% (up from 20%);
  • R&D expenses being immediately deductible from 2025 through 2029; 
  • Tip income being not taxable; 
  • 100% bonus depreciation being extended through 2029; 
  • 1099-K third-party thresholds being increased to $20,000 and more than 200 transactions; 
  • Trump accounts for newborns of $1,000 for children born between Dec. 31, 2024, and Jan. 1, 2029; 
  • No tax on overtime; and,
  • No tax on car loan interest for domestically manufactured automobiles. 

Pay-fors, meanwhile, include the phaseout and termination of $7,500 new and $4,000 used electric vehicle credits; 

  • Repeal of clean energy credits for homes at end of 2025, including for contractors that build energy-efficient homes; 
  • Phaseout starting in 2029 for wind, solar, and other renewables; 
  • Annual fees for vehicle owners highway trust fund of $ 250 for electric vehicle; 
  • A long list of new fees for individuals going through the immigration system; and,
  • An increase in the amount of money that federal workers are required to contribute to retirement accounts from 0.85% to 4.4%.

The bill would also allow contingent fees on original returns. Both the AICPA and the NAEA oppose this item.

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