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The busiest return season of the year is about to begin

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Consumers are 'showing up and spending' following a strong November, says Tanger Outlets CEO

After a strong start to the holiday season, consumer spending is on track to reach record levels this year. But many of those purchases will soon be returned.

December’s peak shopping days are closely followed by the busiest month for sending items back, which experts dub “Returnuary.”

This year, returns are expected to amount to 17% of all merchandise sales, totaling $890 billion in returned goods, according to a recent report by the National Retail Federation — up from a return rate of about 15% of total U.S. retail sales, or $743 billion in returned goods, in 2023.

Even though returns happen throughout the year, they are much more prevalent during the holiday season, the NRF also found. As shopping reaches a peak, retailers expect their return rate for the holidays to be 17% higher, on average, than usual.

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“Ideally, I hope there is a world in which you can reduce the percent of returns,” said Amena Ali, CEO of returns solution company Optoro, but “the problem is not going to abate any time soon.”

How returns became an $890 billion problem

With the explosion of online shopping during and since the pandemic, customers got increasingly comfortable with their buying and returning habits and more shoppers began ordering products they never intended to keep.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now buy multiple sizes or colors, some of which they then send back, a practice known as “bracketing,” according to Happy Returns.

Even more — 69% — of shoppers admit to “wardrobing,” or buying an item for a specific event and returning it afterward, a separate report by Optoro found. That’s a 39% increase from 2023.

Largely because of these types of behaviors, 46% of consumers said they are returning goods multiple times a month — a 29% jump from last year, according to Optoro.

All of that back-and-forth comes at a hefty price.

“With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics,” David Sobie, Happy Returns’ co-founder and CEO, said in a statement.

What happens to returned goods

Processing a return costs retailers an average of 30% of an item’s original price, Optoro found. But returns aren’t just a problem for retailers’ bottom line.

Often returns do not end up back on the shelf, and that also causes issues for retailers struggling to enhance sustainability, according to Spencer Kieboom, founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, a return management company. 

Sending products back to be repackaged, restocked and resold — sometimes overseas — generates even more carbon emissions, assuming they can be put back in circulation.

In some cases, returned goods are sent straight to landfills, and only 54% of all packaging was recycled in 2018, the most recent data available, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Returns in 2023 created 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste, according to Optoro.

That presents a major challenge for retailers, not only in terms of the lost revenue, but also in terms of the environmental impact of managing those returns, said Rachel Delacour, co-founder and CEO of Sweep, a sustainability data management firm. “At the end of the day, being sustainable is a business strategy.”

To that end, companies are doing what they can to keep returns in check.

In 2023, 81% of U.S. retailers rolled out stricter return policies, including shortening the return window and charging a return or restocking fee, according to another report from Happy Returns.

While restocking fees and shipping charges may help curb the amount of inventory that is sent back, retailers also said that improving the returns experience was a key goal for 2025.

Now 33% of retailers, including Amazon and Target, are allowing their customers to simply “keep it,” offering a refund without taking the product back.

Retail's return secret: What a 'keep it' policy means

For shoppers, return policies are key

Increasingly, return policies and expectations are an important predictor of consumer behavior, according to Happy Returns’ Sobie, particularly for Generation Z and millennials.

“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration — they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” Sobie said.

Three-quarters, or 76%, of shoppers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to spend their money, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again, the NRF found.

A survey of 1,500 adults by GoDaddy found that 77% of shoppers check the return policy before making a purchase.

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As college costs soar, Ivy Leagues boost financial aid packages

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Fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images

While most people agree that a college education is worthwhile, fewer say it’s worth the high cost.

However, as college costs continue to rise, many top schools are responding by offering more generous financial aid packages to ensure affordability for qualified students, with some even covering the entire cost for low-income families. 

College tuition has surged by 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983, significantly outpacing other household expenses, a recent study by J.P. Morgan Asset Management found.

For the 2024-25 school year, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

Despite the rising costs, financial aid has not kept pace: Families now shoulder 48% of college expenses with their income and investments, up from 38% a decade ago, J.P. Morgan Asset Management also found.

The new, simplified Free Application for Federal Student Aid form, which first launched in 2023, was meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

But even Pell Grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award is $7,395, after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

“Aid continues to not be enough and that’s the reality,” said Tricia Scarlata, head of education savings at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Taking on too much debt was also the No. 1 worry among college-bound students, according to a recent survey by The Princeton Review.

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Top colleges expand financial aid awards

This also comes amid President Donald Trump’s plans to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education and transfer the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio to the Small Business Administration.

“While the federal student loan program is in a state of flux, a lot of students are getting money directly from colleges,” said Eric Greenberg, president of Greenberg Educational Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

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To bridge the affordability gap, some of the nation’s top institutions are boosting their financial aid awards to attract top students wary of sky-high college tab.

“There’s a trend of colleges with money using it as opposed to sitting on it,” Greenberg said.

Harvard University was the latest school to announce that it will be tuition free for undergraduates with family incomes of up to $200,000 beginning in the 2025-26 academic year. 

Nearly two dozen more schools have also introduced “no-loan” policies, which means student loans are eliminated altogether from their financial aid packages.

Acceptance rates hit all-time lows

Schools with the financial wherewithal to expand their no-loan aid programs are giving students a tremendous benefit, Scarlata said. “I think it’s wonderful — you still have to get into Harvard though.”

Coming out of the pandemic, highly selective colleges and universities experienced a record-breaking increase in applications, according to a report by the Common Application.

Now the acceptance rates at Ivy League schools are near rock bottom. Harvard’s acceptance rate is just under 4%, down from more than 10% two decades ago; at Princeton and Yale, it’s about 5%, down from 12% and 10%, respectively.

“The arms race for financial aid is setting up an extreme crescendo for college admissions,” said Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of Crimson Education, a college consulting firm. 

More generous aid packages and tuition-free policies remove the most significant financial barrier to higher education and attract even more applicants, he said — at schools that were already among the most difficult to get into.

“There’s a massive incentive to try to gain admission to top schools,” Beaton said. “The acceptance rate has halved. And it likely will again.”

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Your last chance to claim an IRS stimulus check is approaching

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Douglas Sacha | Moment | Getty Images

If you still haven’t filed your 2021 tax return and never received a pandemic-era IRS stimulus check, the deadline is April 15 because there’s a three-year window to claim refunds, according to the agency.

Filers who never got the 2021 stimulus payment of up to $1,400 could claim the recovery rebate credit on that year’s return.  

“If you didn’t get the stimulus, you’re running out of time,” said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic. 

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The IRS in December announced plans to automatically send “special payments” of up to $1,400 to 1 million taxpayers who didn’t claim the 2021 recovery rebate credit on tax returns for that year.  

The agency said most payments were expected to arrive via direct deposit or paper check by late January 2025, based on the taxpayer’s 2023 tax return information.

In order to see if the IRS issued a stimulus payment, you can create an online account and view “tax records” under the “records and status” toolbar. 

“That’s the best place to look,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

Your IRS online account also shows if you filed a 2021 return, Lucas said. 

If you don’t submit your 2021 filing by April 15, you could also miss other tax breaks, such as the earned income tax credit, which can trigger a refund even without taxes owed, according to the IRS.  

Currently, there are more than $1 billion in unclaimed refunds for tax year 2021, the IRS estimated in early March. That represents more than 1.1 million taxpayers and a median unpaid refund of $781. These figures don’t include applicable credits, including the recovery rebate credit.

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You need ‘proof’ of filing by the deadline

While there are several free options for tax returns this season, some may not offer electronic filing for 2021 returns, Nassau warned. 

If you’re forced to mail your 2021 return, you should send the filing via certified mail for “proof” you sent it by the April 15 deadline, he said. 

“I’ve had situations where the IRS gets something after the filing [due] date, and they just reflexively say it’s too late,” Nassau said. “Spend the $5 and send it certified.”

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Disability advocates sue Social Security and DOGE to stop service cuts

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A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

A group of disability advocates filed a federal lawsuit against the Social Security Administration and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency on Wednesday aimed at stopping cuts to the agency’s services.

Recent changes at the Social Security Administration under DOGE — including staff reductions, the elimination of certain offices and new requirements to seek in-person services — have made it more difficult for individuals with disabilities and older adults to access benefits, the lawsuit argues.

The complaint was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

The plaintiffs include the National Federation of the Blind, the American Association of People with Disabilities, Deaf Equality, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, the Massachusetts Senior Action Council and individual beneficiaries.

“The defendants’ actions are an unprecedented and unconstitutional assault on Social Security benefits, concealed beneath the hollow pretense of bureaucratic ‘reform,'” the complaint states.

In nine weeks, the new administration has “upended” the agency with “sweeping and destabilizing policy changes,” the plaintiffs claim, that have shifted agency functions to local offices while slashing telephone services.

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“The result is a systematic dismantling of SSA’s core functions, leaving millions of beneficiaries without the essential benefits they are legally entitled to,” the lawsuit complaint states.

The “mass restructuring” of the agency is unlawful and violates the Rehabilitation Act and the Administrative Procedure Act, the lawsuit argues. The changes also violate multiple constitutional provisions, including the First Amendment right to petition the government for redress of grievances, according to the plaintiffs.

With 1.1 million disability claims pending, the recent actions could also be life threatening to individuals who are dying or going bankrupt while waiting for decisions, they allege.

The Social Security Administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

“President Trump has made it clear he is committed to making the federal government more efficient,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in an email statement. “He has the authority to manage agency restructuring and workforce reductions, and the administration’s actions are fully compliant with the law.”

Lawsuit alleges reform is ‘administrative vandalism’

People hold signs during a protest against cuts made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to the Social Security Administration, in White Plains, New York, U.S., March 22, 2025. 

Nathan Layne | Reuters

The Social Security Administration sends monthly checks to around 73 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries.

DOGE, which is not an official government entity, has been tasked with cutting “waste, fraud and abuse” within the federal government. President Donald Trump issued an executive order creating DOGE on Jan. 20, the same day he was inaugurated.

Since then, the Social Security Administration has cut 7,000 employee positions and closed the Office of Civil Rights and Equal Opportunity and the Office of Transformation. The Office of Civil Rights and Equal Opportunity handled the agency’s equal employment opportunity and civil rights programs. The Office of Transformation was responsible for coordinating customer service-related initiatives like adding the ability to use digital signatures and electronic documents.

The Social Security Administration has also changed its identity proofing policies for claiming benefits and changing direct deposit information that is expected to require more individuals to visit the agency’s offices in person.

The agency has updated its policy, allowing individuals applying for Social Security Disability Insurance, Medicare, or Supplemental Security Income who cannot use a personal my Social Security account to complete their claim entirely over the telephone, starting April 14. 

The reforms amount to the dismantling of “core functions of SSA, abandoning millions of Americans to poverty and indignity,” according to the plaintiffs’ complaint.

“What the defendants frame as ‘reform’ is, in truth, administrative vandalism,” the lawsuit states.

Beneficiaries face long waits, overpayment issues

The plaintiffs include seven individuals whose experiences, including long customer service waits and, in some cases, demands to repay large sums to the Social Security Administration, are detailed in the complaint.

One plaintiff, Treva Olivero, who has been legally blind since birth, was informed in March 2024 that she had been overpaid Social Security disability insurance benefits for five or six years, prompting the agency to demand she repay more than $100,000, according to the complaint.

Olivero’s Medicaid coverage was also terminated soon after, which left her without income and health coverage. She has since been in an “ongoing struggle” to have her disability benefits reinstated, while also facing almost $80,000 in medical debt, according to the complaint.

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Another plaintiff, Merry Schoch, who received Social Security disability insurance for many years, returned to work to help pay for large medical bills after she was hit by a waste management truck in 2022. She reported her income to the Social Security Administration, and the agency made no changes to her benefit payments, according to the complaint.

Two years later, Schoch stopped working and reported her unemployment to the Social Security Administration. In August 2024, the agency then terminated her benefits and informed Schoch that she owed $30,000 for the disability benefit payments she received while working full time, according to the complaint.

Last September, Schoch was informed she could reapply for benefits. However, she has since struggled to get in touch with the agency over the phone, online and in person. 

Both Olivero and Schoch are members of the National Federation of the Blind, which is also a plaintiff.

The plaintiffs want the court to reverse the Social Security Administration’s recent reforms, including staff reductions, closures of certain offices and policies requiring in-person appointments.

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