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Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions for 2025

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Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration taken Nov. 25, 2024.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC, they’re expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.

In December, the world’s largest cryptocurrency broke the highly-anticipated $100,000, setting a record high price above that. That came after Donald Trump — who ran on a prominently pro-crypto policy platform — secured a historic election win in November.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House has boosted sentiment surrounding crypto with many industry executives and analysts expecting him to promote a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

During his election campaign, Trump vowed to replace incumbent Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has taken aggressive legal actions against various crypto firms. Gensler agreed to step down from the SEC in 2025.

Trump has also indicated the U.S. could establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, by pooling funds obtained through seizures from criminal activity.

Also in 2024, bitcoin topped 2021’s price milestone of close to $70,000 after the SEC gave the green light to the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.

The ETF approval was widely viewed as a key moment for the cryptocurrency as it broadens its appeal to more mainstream investors.

The other key moment in 2024 was the halving, an event that takes places every four years and reduces the supply of bitcoin onto the market. This is typically very supportive for bitcoin’s price.

These developments helped move crypto past the narrative of an industry marred by scandal. That was the dominant theme of 2023 as two of crypto’s most prominent figures — FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao — both received prison sentences over criminal charges.

This year, bitcoin has more than doubled in price. The token is widely expected to see even more positive price momentum in 2025 — with several industry watchers predicting a doubling in value to $200,000.

CoinShares: $80,000-$150,000

James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset manager CoinShares, told CNBC that he sees prices of both $150,000 and $80,000 being on the cards for bitcoin in 2025.

Butterfill said in the long term it wouldn’t be “unreasonable” to expect bitcoin to become worth about 25% of gold’s market share — up from about 10% currently. That would equate to a price of $250,000.

But he doesn’t see that happening next year. “Timing of this is very difficult though and I don’t expect this to occur in 2025, but it will head in that direction,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.

He said that it is “likely” bitcoin could hit both $80,000 and $150,000 during the course of the year.  

Butterfill’s $80,000 call, if hit, would be a result of Trump’s promised pro-crypto policies not materializing.

“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill said.

Next year, Butterfill expects a favorable U.S. regulatory environment to be the primary driver supporting bitcoin prices.

In 2023, CoinShares forecast bitcoin at $80,000 in 2024.

Matrixport: $160,000

Matrixport, a crypto financial services firm, said bitcoin could hit $160,000 in 2025.

“This outlook is supported by sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs, favorable macroeconomic trends, and an expanding global liquidity pool,” Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport told CNBC by email.

Bitcoin is known to be very volatile with the potential for corrections of between 70% and 80% from all-time highs. Thielen said the drawdowns in 2025 will be “less pronounced.”

“Bitcoin’s growing base of dip buyers and robust institutional support is expected to mitigate severe corrections,” Thielen said.

Matrixport predicted in 2023 that bitcoin would hit $125,000 in 2024.

Galaxy Digital: $185,000

Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto-focused asset manager Galaxy Digital, sees bitcoin crossing $150,000 in the first half of the year before reaching $185,000 in the fourth quarter.

“A combination of institutional, corporate, and nation state adoption will propel Bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” Thorn wrote in a research note shared with CNBC.

“Throughout its existence, Bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025. Bitcoin will also reach 20% of Gold’s market cap.”

Galaxy predicts U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products will collectively cross $250 billion in assets under management in 2025.

The firm expects next year will also see five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation states add bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.

Standard Chartered: $200,000

Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered is calling for a doubling in price for bitcoin. The bank’s head of digital assets research said in a note earlier this month that he expects bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Standard Chartered expects institutional flows into bitcoin to “continue at or above the 2024 pace” next year.

Bitcoin inflows from institutions have already reached 683,000 BTC since the start of the year, the bank noted, via U.S. spot ETFs that were largely purchased by MicroStrategy, a software firm and effective bitcoin proxy.

Kendrick said bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy should “match or exceed its 2024 purchases” next year.

Pension funds should also start including more bitcoin in their portfolio via U.S. spot ETFs next year thanks to anticipated reforms from the incoming Trump administration to rules on so-called “TradFi” (traditional finance) firms making investments in digital currencies, he added.

“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted. “We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”

Carol Alexander: $200,000

Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, sees $200,000 bitcoin as a possibility next year.

“I’m more bullish than ever for 2025,” Alexander told CNBC, adding bitcoin’s price “could easily reach $200,000 but there are no signs of volatility reducing.”

“By the summer I expect that it will be trading around $150,000 plus or minus $50,000.” Alexander clarified she doesn’t actually own any bitcoin herself.

Explaining her rationale, Alexander said that supportive U.S. regulation will boost bitcoin, however, a lack of regulation on crypto exchanges will continue to drive volatility due to highly-leveraged trades shooting prices up and down.

Alexander has a history of correctly calling bitcoin’s price. Last year, she told CNBC that bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2024, which it did.

Bit Mining: $180,000 – $190,000

Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, is predicting bitcoin will hit a price of between $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025 — but he’s also cautious of potential pullbacks in price.

“Bitcoin’s price in 2025 is likely to see both significant upward momentum and occasional sharp corrections,” Yang told CNBC. “In moments of market shocks, such as a major stock market downturn, bitcoin could temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.”

Factors underlying an anticipated bitcoin rally in 2025 include lower interest rates, support from Trump, and increased institutional adoption.

Based on these dynamics, I predict Bitcoin could peak at $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, aligning with historical cycle patterns and the growing mainstream adoption of crypto,” Yang said.

Nevertheless, Yang also expects next year to bring a number of “corrections” for bitcoins price, too.

Risks to the downside include U.S.-China tensions, global capital market disruptions, potential unexpected restrictive measures, and possible delays to the Fed rate-cutting cycle.

Last year, Yang forecast bitcoin would hit $75,000 in 2024.

Maple Finance: $180,000 – $200,000

Sid Powell, CEO and co-founder of centralized finance platform Maple Finance, is targeting a price of between $180,000 and $200,000 for bitcoin by the end of 2025.

“If you look historically when we saw gold ETFs come in, the inflows in the first year increased dramatically in subsequent years — and I think we can expect to see that with the bitcoin ETFs,” Powell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“I think we will see higher inflows in subsequent years as bitcoin and indeed crypto becomes a core asset allocation for institutional asset managers,” Powell added.

Another factor Powell sees boosting bitcoin’s price is the anticipation of a bitcoin strategic reserve in the U.S.

Still, Maple Finance’s boss is mindful about market pullbacks. “I think you’ll of course see corrections — crypto remains a cyclical industry,” Powell told CNBC.

Bitcoin to hit $200,000 in 2025 thanks to Trump, crypto CEO says

In previous market cycles, bitcoin has risen wildly over the course of a few months before plummeting sharply in value.

Take the previous cycle, for example: in 2021, bitcoin rallied to nearly $70,000 as more and more investors piled in but the subsequent year, the token plunged to less than $17,000 on the back of a series of major crypto company bankruptcies.

However, Powell stressed that the 70% to 80% drawdowns bitcoin has seen in cycles past are unlikely in 2025 “because there is more of a buffer from those institutional inflows into the sector.”

Nexo: $250,000

Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer of crypto lending platform Nexo, is more bullish on bitcoin’s 2025 prospects than the general consensus.

“We see bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year,” Taskova told CNBC, adding that in the longer term — as in, over the next decade — she sees the entire crypto market capitalization surpassing that of gold.

“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Nexo’s product chief said.

Supportive macroeconomic conditions, such as easing of monetary policy from the world’s major central banks, is likely to boost bitcoin, she added.

“The Federal Reserve’s balancing act – managing interest rates and inflation while avoiding stagnation – will be pivotal,” she said, cautioning that on the flipside, persistent inflation could also prompt a hawkish pivot.

“As the U.S. leads in crypto-related capital deployment, rate decisions and inflation dynamics will likely remain key influences on bitcoin’s price in 2025.”

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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