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UK business confidence at lowest level since ‘mini-budget’: BCC

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We are in the midst of a hiring recession, especially in the UK: ManpowerGroup

UK firms are planning to raise prices to cover higher tax payouts as confidence among businesses tumbled to its lowest level since the market-rocking “mini-budget” crisis of fall 2022, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.

The trade group said sentiment had “declined significantly” in its largest poll since the Labour government’s debut budget last October, which included a hike in the amount many employers pay out in National Insurance (NI), a tax on earnings. 

The BCC said 63% of businesses cited tax as a worry in the survey, up from 48% in the third quarter. More than half (55%) said they expect prices to go up in the next three months, primarily due to higher labor costs.

The percentage of companies saying they expected turnover to increase in the next twelve months fell to 49%, from 56%. Concerns about inflation and interest rates remained roughly steady.

The BCC cited firms across hospitality, manufacturing, construction and healthcare expressing worries about how they would cover additional costs and saying they would likely scale back investment.

Budget has had a negative impact on business confidence in the UK: British Chambers of Commerce
UK firms less positive about the economy, but are in a good place to weather challenges: economist

“We recognize what [Reeves] said, that she’s got to increase taxes to fill her black hole, but what we need to see her do now is mitigate against that. What are we going to do to drive the economy?” Shevaun Haviland, head of the BCC, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“Businesses are going to have to shoulder this tax increase, but what we want to see her do is act, and they need to act quickly. It’s important that they’re putting strategies in place, industrial strategy, trade strategy, infrastructure plan, for later on this year, but we need to see action now.”

U.K. borrowing costs have climbed following the October 2024 budget, exceeding the levels they spiked to following the “mini-budget” of September 2022, which saw then-Prime Minister Liz Truss announce sweeping, uncosted tax cuts.

However, economists say the recent rise in bond yields is not equivalent to the surge seen in 2022 as the moves have been significantly less dramatic and the macro backdrop — including a cooling of inflation — has changed.

Economics

Trump could declare national economic emergency to justify universal tariffs, CNN reports

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump makes remarks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. Jan. 7, 2025. 

Carlos Barria | Reuters

President-Elect Donald Trump is contemplating calling a national economic emergency to implement his wide-reaching tariff policies, four sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

A declaration of this nature will give Trump power to create the tariff program he made a pinnacle of his campaign for the White House through the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, CNN reported. Also known as IEEPA, the act allows the president to oversee imports in a period of national crisis.

Stock futures weakened following the CNN report and the U.S. dollar gained in value against most other currencies.

CNN’s sources noted that a final decision has not been reached on whether Trump will declare a national emergency. Trump’s team is also evaluating alternative legal arguments, such as pointing to specific sections of the U.S. trade law, per CNN’s reporting.

Trump pitched taxes on imports frequently on the campaign trail, calling at times for fees of 60% or more on Chinese products. Weeks after his victory, the Republican vowed to hike tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% and slap 25% fees on products coming from Canada or Mexico.

The Washington Post reported Monday that Trump would narrow the focus of his tariffs, an approach Wall Street seems to favor. But the President-Elect later denied that report.

Read CNN’s full story here.

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Private sector companies added 122,000 jobs in December, less than expected, ADP says

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A worker adjusts hiring signage at a job and resource fair hosted by the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board in partnership with NCWorks in Hendersonville, North Carolina, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. 

Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Private sector job creation eased more than expected in December while wages grew at the slowest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years, payment processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000. It was the smallest increase since August.

On wages, pay grew at a 4.6% rate from a year ago, the slowest pace since July 2021.

“The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.

Though there are signs hiring is slowing, there have been few indications to indicate that layoffs are increasing.

The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled just 201,000 for the week ending Jan. 4. That was well below the 215,000 estimate and the lowest level since February 2024.

The reports come two days ahead of the closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that report to show a gain of 155,000, which in itself would mark a sharp slowdown from November’s unexpectedly strong 227,000. The ADP and BLS numbers often differ, sometimes by large margins.

Federal Reserve policymakers are watching the jobs numbers closely as they plot their next moves for monetary policy. While most Fed officials have said they believe the labor market is solid, they are looking to keep interest rates less restrictive so as not to threaten job creation.

They also have expressed more confidence that inflation has stabilized though it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. The ADP numbers could add to the case that wages aren’t pressuring inflation.

From a sector standpoint, job creation was strongest in the education and health services category, which added 57,000 positions. Other significant gains came in construction (27,000), leisure and hospitality (22,000) and financial activities (12,000).

Several sectors reported job losses, including manufacturing (-11,000), natural resources and mining (-6,000) and professional and business services (-5,000).

Almost all of the jobs came from big companies with more than 500 workers, which amounted to 97,000.

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Economics

Los Angeles is burning

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THE SCENES kept getting worse. People abandoned their cars and fled on foot as the flames approached. Firefighters then bulldozed their vehicles to reach the blaze. Workers evacuated patients in wheelchairs from a nursing home. The sky above the Pacific Coast Highway turned orange and thickened with smoke. Palm fronds smouldered. A man walked his horses down the street as embers flew around them. Flames licked up the grounds of the Getty Villa, an art museum. Extreme winds sparked several wildfires across Los Angeles on January 7th. Nine months without measurable rainfall had primed the city to burn.

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