Finance

Fed’s Michael Barr clears way for gentler banking regulator

Published

2 days ago

January 7, 2025

Federal Reserve Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller pose for a photo, during a break at a conference on monetary policy at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, in Palo Alto, California, U.S. May 6, 2022. Picture taken May 6, 2022.

Ann Saphir | Reuters

The early departure of the Federal Reserve’s top financial regulator allows for a more industry-friendly official to take his place, the latest boon for U.S. banks riding a wave of post-election optimism.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Monday that he plans to step down from his role by next month to avoid a protracted legal battle with the Trump administration, which had weighed seeking his removal.

The announcement, a reversal from Barr’s previous comments on the matter, ends his supervisory role roughly 18 months earlier than planned. It also removes a possible impediment to Trump’s deregulatory agenda.

Banks and other financial stocks were among the big winners after the election of Donald Trump in November on speculation that softer regulation and increased deal activity, including mergers, were on the way. Weeks after his victory, Trump selected hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his nominee for Treasury Secretary.

Trump has yet to name nominees for the three major bank regulatory agencies — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Now, with Barr’s resignation, a more precise image of incoming bank regulation is forming.

Trump is limited to picking one of two Republican Fed governors for vice chair of supervision: Michelle Bowman or Christopher Waller.

Waller declined to comment, while Bowman didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.

Bowman, whose name had already appeared on short lists for possible Trump administration roles and is considered the frontrunner, has been a critic of Barr’s attempt to force American banks to hold more capital — a proposal known as Basel III Endgame.

“The regulatory approach we took failed to consider or deliver a reasonable proposal, one aligned with the original Basel agreement yet suited to the particulars of the U.S. banking system,” Bowman said in a November speech.

Bowman, a former community banker and Kansas bank commissioner, could take on “industry-friendly reforms” around a number of sore spots for banks, according to Alexandra Steinberg Barrage, a former FDIC executive and partner at Troutman Pepper Locke.

That includes what bank executives have called an opaque Fed stress test process, long turnaround times for merger approvals and what bankers have said are sometimes unfair confidential bank exams, Barrage said.

Easier ‘Endgame’?

When it comes to the Basel Endgame, first announced in July 2023 before a toned-down proposal was released last year, it’s now more likely that its ultimate form will be far gentler for the industry, versus versions that would’ve forced large banks to withhold tens of billions of dollars in capital.

Barr led the interagency effort to draft the sweeping Basel Endgame, whose initial version would’ve boosted capital requirements for the world’s largest banks by roughly 19%. Now, Barrage and others see a final version that is far less onerous.

“Barr’s replacement could still work with the other agencies to propose a new B3 Endgame rule, but we think such a proposal would be capital-neutral industry-wide,” Stifel analyst Brian Gardner said Monday in a note. “Bowman voted against the 2023 proposal, and we expect she would lead any B3 re-write in a different direction.”

If lenders ultimately beat back efforts to force them to hold more capital, that would enable them to boost share buybacks, among other possible uses for the money.

Bank stocks traded higher Monday after Barr’s announcement, with the KBW Bank Index rising as much as 2.4% during the session. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, which have both garnered headlines for regulatory matters last year, were among the day’s biggest gainers, each rising more than 2%.

Notably, Barr is not resigning from his role as one of seven Fed governors, which preserves the current 4-3 advantage of Democrat appointees on the Fed board, according to Klaros Group co-founder Brian Graham.

“Barr’s resignation of the vice chair role, while remaining a governor, is actually very clever,” Graham said. “It preserves the balance of power for board votes for a year or so, and it constrains the choices for his replacement to those currently serving on the board.”

Finance

Slower pace ahead for rate cuts

Published

17 hours ago

January 8, 2025

Business Finance News

Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump‘s policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed.

Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the impact that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy.

Since Trump’s November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations.

However, the extent of what Trump’s actions will be and specifically how they will be directed creates a band of ambiguity about what is ahead, which Federal Open Market Committee members said would require caution.

“Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the minutes said. “As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”

FOMC members voted to lower the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.

However, they also reduced their outlook for expected cuts in 2025 to two from four in the previous estimate at September’s meeting, assuming quarter-point increments. The Fed cut a full point off the funds rate since September, and current market pricing is indicating just one or two more moves lower this year.

Minutes indicated that the pace of cuts ahead indeed is likely to be slower.

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” the document said.

Moreover, members agreed that “the policy rate was now significantly closer to its neutral value than when the Committee commenced policy easing in September. In addition, many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.”

Those conditions include inflation readings that remain above the Fed’s 2% annual target, a solid pace of consumer spending, a stable labor market and otherwise strong economic activity in which gross domestic product had been growing at an above-trend clip through 2024.

“A substantial majority of participants observed that, at the current juncture, with its policy stance still meaningfully restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity and inflation, including the economy’s responses to the Committee’s earlier policy actions,” the minutes said.

Officials stressed that future policy moves will be dependent on how the data unfolds and are not on a set schedule. The Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation running at 2.4% rate in November, and 2.8% when including food and energy prices, compared with the prior year. The Fed target’s inflation at 2%.

In documents handed out at the meeting, most officials indicated that while they see inflation gravitating down to 2%, they don’t forecast that happening until 2027 and expect that near-term risks are to the upside.

At his news conference following the Dec. 18 rate decision, Chair Jerome Powell likened the situation to “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”

That statement reflected that mindset of meeting participants, many of whom “observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the Committee to take a gradual approach as it moved toward a neutral policy stance,” the minutes said.

The “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations showed that they expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and possibly another one or two after, ultimately taking the long-run fed funds rate down to 3%.