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UK monthly GDP data for November

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The National Gallery and the church St. Martin’s in the Fields at dusk. Trafalgar Square, London, UK

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The U.K. economy grew at a lackluster pace of 0.1% in November, data from the Office of National Statistics showed Thursday.

This compares with the 0.2% month-on-month growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in October, following a decline of 0.1% in September and growth of 0.2% in August.

The data comes as the Bank of England considers whether to lower interest rates at its next meeting on Feb.6.

A cooler-than-expected annual inflation print for December, out Wednesday, fueled broad expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut when the central bank meets.

Such a trim would bring the key interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5% although BOE policymakers will be factoring in inflationary pressures, such as resilient wage growth and uncertainty over Britain’s economic outlook. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.

The Labour government and Treasury have been under pressure in recent weeks amid rising government borrowing costs and questions over their fiscal plans and a higher tax burden on businesses. Both were given something of a reprieve on Wednesday, however, when the latest inflation data showed consumer price growth had cooled more than expected to 2.5% in December, with core price growth slowing further.

The print came in below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had anticipated the inflation rate would remain unchanged from the 2.6% reading of November.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.2% in the twelve months to December, down from 3.5% in November.

The U.K.’s inflation rate had hit a more than three-year low of 1.7% in September, but monthly prices had accelerated since then on the back of higher fuel costs and the price of services. In December, the annual services inflation rate stood at 4.4%, down from 5% in November.

The U.K. economy has found itself in a tight spot of late, with economists voicing concerns over the country’s sluggish growth prospects and worries over headwinds caused by both external factors, such as potential trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, along with internal fiscal and economic challenges that have dogged the Labour government and Treasury since the October budget.

Correction: This article’s headline has been updated to reflect the U.K. economy grew by 0.1% in November. A previous version had misstated the figure.

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Tulsi Gabbard, Sean Penn and the hunt for an American hostage

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CPI inflation December 2024:

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Core inflation rate slows to 3.2% in December, less than expected

Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose again in December but closed out 2024 with some mildly better news on inflation, particularly on housing.

The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.

However, excluding food and energy, the core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, a notch down from the month before and slightly better than the 3.3% forecast. The core measure rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, also 0.1 percentage point less than expected.

Much of the move higher in the CPI came from a 2.6% gain in energy prices for the month, pushed higher by a 4.4% surge in gasoline. That was responsible for about 40% of the index’s gain, according to the BLS. Food prices also rose, up 0.3% for the month.

On an annual basis, food rose 2.5% in 2024 while energy nudged down by 0.5%.

Shelter prices, which comprise about one-third of the CPI weighting, rose by 0.3% but were up 4.6% from a year ago, the smallest one-year gain since January 2022.

Stock market futures surged following the release while Treasury yields tumbled.

Though the numbers compared favorably to forecasts, they still show that the Federal Reserve has work to do to reach its 2% inflation target. Headline inflation moved down from its 3.3% rate in 2023, while core was 3.9% a year ago.

The inflation readings this week – the BLS released its produce price index Tuesday – are expected to keep the Fed on hold when it holds its policy meeting later this month.

While the market cheered the CPI release, the news was less positive for workers: Inflation-adjusted earnings for the month fell by 0.1%, putting the year-over-year gain at just 1%, the BLS said in a separate release.

Details in the inflation report otherwise were mixed.

Used car and truck prices jumped 1.2% while new vehicle prices also moved higher by 0.5%. Transportation services surged 0.5% and were up 7.3% year over year, while egg prices jumped 3.2%, taking the annual gain to 36.8%. Auto insurance rose 0.4% and was up 11.3% annually.

The report comes with markets skittish over the state of inflation and the Fed’s potential response.

Job growth in December was much stronger than economists had expected, with the gain of 256,000 raising concerns that the Fed could stay on hold for an extended period and even contemplate interest rate increases should inflation prove stickier than expected.

The December CPI report, coupled with a relatively soft reading Tuesday on wholesale prices, show that while inflation is not cooling dramatically, it also isn’t showing signs of reaccelerating.

A separate report Wednesday from the New York Fed showed manufacturing activity softening but prices paid and received rising substantially.

Futures pricing continued to imply a near-certainty that the Fed would stay on hold at its Jan. 28-29 meeting but titled more favorably towards two rate cuts through the year, assuming quarter percentage point increments, according to CME Group figures.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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