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Wall Street banks see deal activity picking up, even after record results

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Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone Inc., from left, Ron O’Hanley, chief executive officer of State Street Corp., Ted Pick, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, and David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024.

Paul Yeung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

American investment banks just disclosed a record-smashing quarter, helped by surging trading activity around the U.S. election and a pickup in investment banking deal flow.

Traders at JPMorgan Chase, for instance, have never had a better fourth quarter after seeing revenue surge 21% to $7 billion, while Goldman Sachs’ equities business generated $13.4 billion for the full year — also a record.

For Wall Street, it was a welcome return to the type of environment craved by traders and bankers after a muted period when the Federal Reserve was raising rates as it grappled with inflation. Boosted by a Fed in easing mode and the election of Donald Trump in November, banks including JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley easily topped expectations for the quarter.

But the grand machinery keeping Wall Street moving is just picking up steam. That’s because, deterred by regulatory uncertainty and higher borrowing costs, U.S. corporations have mostly sat on the sidelines in recent years when it came to buying competitors or selling themselves.

That’s about to change, according to Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick. Buoyed by confidence in the business environment, including hopes for lower corporate taxes and smoother approvals on mergers, banks are seeing growing backlogs of merger deals, according to Pick and Goldman CEO David Solomon.

Morgan Stanley’s deal pipeline is “the strongest it’s been in 5 to 10 years, maybe even longer,” Pick said Thursday.

Capital markets activity including debt and equity issuance had already began recovering last year, rising 25% from the depressed levels of 2023, per Dealogic figures. But without normal levels of merger activity, the entire Wall Street ecosystem has been missing a key driver of activity.

Multibillion dollar acquisitions sit at “the top of the waterfall” for investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Pick explained, because they are high-margin transactions that “have a multiplier effect through the whole organization.”

That’s because they create the need for other types of transactions, like massive loans, credit facilities or stock issuance, while generating millions of dollars in wealth for executives that needs to be managed professionally.

“The last piece is what we’ve been waiting for, which are M&A tickets,” Pick said, referring to the contracts governing merger deals. “We are excited about pushing that through to the rest of the investment bank.”

Another engine of value creation for Wall Street that has been slow in recent years is the IPO market — which is also set to pick up, Solomon told an audience of tech investors and employees Wednesday.

“There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence,” Solomon said earlier that day. “There is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite for deal-making supported by an improving regulatory backdrop.”

After a lean few years, it should make for a profitable time for Wall Street’s dealmakers and traders.

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Where ‘Made in China 2025’ missed the mark

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Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.

When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictions in the last several years.

Since releasing the plan, China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.

China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.

The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.

“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”

China continues to be a key market for Nvidia, says T. Rowe Price's Tony Wang

Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categories China was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”

The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.

Earlier this week, the U.S. issued exporting licensing requirements for U.S.-based chipmaker Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 artificial intelligence chips, as well as their equivalents, to China. Prior to that, Nvidia said that it would take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion as a result of the new exporting licensing requirements. The chipmaker’s CEO Jensen Huang met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Thursday, according to Chinese state media.

The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.

Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.

In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.

China catching up

It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.

Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei released a smartphone in late 2023 that reportedly contained an advanced chip capable of 5G speeds. The company has been on a U.S. blacklist since 2019 and released its own operating system last year that is reportedly completely separate from Google’s Android.

“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”

For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.

Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business. The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.

Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.

“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”

Dutch semiconductor equipment firm ASML spent 15.2% of its net sales in 2024 on R&D, while Nvidia’s ratio was 14.2%.

Overcapacity and security concerns

However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.

The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.

“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”

He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.

In an annual government work report delivered in March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for efforts to halt involution, echoing a directive from a high-level Politburo meeting in July last year. The Politburo is the second-highest circle of power in the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.

China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.

But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: HTZ, UNH, LLY

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: LLY, GOOGL, HTZ, UNH

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