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Share of U.S. companies in China looking to relocate hits a record high, survey finds

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Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING — A record share of U.S. companies in China are accelerating their plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing, according to a business survey released Thursday.

About 30% of the respondents considered or started such diversification in 2024, surpassing the prior high of 24% in 2022, according to annual surveys from the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

That also exceeded the 23% share reported for 2017, when U.S. President Donald Trump began his first term and started raising tariffs on Chinese goods.

In addition to U.S.-China tensions, “one of the major impacts that we’ve seen in the last five years was Covid and how China closed itself off from the world because of Covid,” Michael Hart, Beijing-based president of AmCham China, told reporters Thursday.

“That’s been one of the largest triggers as people realized they needed to diversify their supply chains,” he said. “I don’t see that trend slowing down.”

China restricted international travel and locked down parts of the country during the Covid-19 pandemic in an attempt to restrict the spread of the disease.

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While India and Southeast Asian countries remained the most popular destination for relocating production, the survey showed 18% of the respondents considered relocating to the U.S. in 2024, up from 16% the prior year.

The majority of U.S. companies did not plan to diversify. Just over two-thirds, or 67%, of respondents said they were not considering relocating manufacturing, a 10 percentage point drop from 2023, the survey showed.

The latest AmCham China survey covered 368 members from Oct. 21 to Nov. 15. Trump was re-elected U.S. president on Nov. 5.

Trump this week affirmed plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, and said the duties could come as soon as Feb. 1. That follows an increasingly tough U.S. stance on China. The Biden administration had emphasized the U.S. is in competition with China and issued sweeping restrictions on the ability of Chinese companies to access high-end U.S. tech.

More than 60% of the respondents said U.S.-China tensions were the biggest challenge for doing business in China in the year ahead. Competition from local state-owned companies or privately owned Chinese companies was the second-biggest challenge for U.S. businesses operating in China, according to the survey.

Slower economic growth

Adding to geopolitical pressures, growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed, with muted consumer spending since the pandemic. Chinese authorities in late September started ramping up efforts to stimulate growth and halt the real estate slump.

For a third-straight year, more than half of AmCham China respondents said they did not make a profit in the country, adding that the region had become less competitive in terms of margins versus other global markets.

The proportion of companies no longer listing China as a preferred investment destination climbed to 21%, doubling from pre-pandemic levels, the survey said.

Looking ahead, however, tech, industrial and consumer businesses said they viewed growth in domestic consumption as the top business opportunity for 2025, the survey said. Services firms said their top opportunity was Chinese companies looking to expand overseas.

Hart noted that many members are still optimistic on Chinese consumers as a “sizeable, important market.”

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BlackRock’s Fink says that the bond market will tell us where we’re going

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Larry Fink at the 2016 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

David A. Grogan | CNBC

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said President Donald Trump’s efforts to unleash capital in the private sector could have unintended consequences that would hurt the stock market.

“I’m cautiously optimistic. That being said, I have scenarios where it could be pretty bad,” Fink said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I believe if it’ll unlock all this private capital, we’re going to have enormous growth. At the same time, some of this is going to create new inflationary pressures. I do believe that’s probably the risk that is not factored into the markets. I think the bond market is going to tell us where we’re going.”

The 72-year-old chief of the world’s largest asset manager said much will depend on how quickly the private sector can put capital to work. Trump has already touted massive private-sector promises to spend in the U.S., the latest example being the Stargate joint venture, where SoftBank, OpenAI and Oracle would invest $100 billion immediately for artificial intelligence infrastructure in the country. Plans call for the project to eventually invest a total of $500 billion.

“There are some very large inflationary pressures that we all have to be aware of,” Fink said. “And depending on how this plays out, there is a scenario where we’re going to have much more elevated interest rates because of inflation. And that’s going to have a very negative impact on the equity market.”

Fink said there is a possibility that the 10-year Treasury yield could retest the 5% level and even reach 5.5% if inflation re-accelerates in a meaningful way. If that happens, Fink said it would “shock” the equity market.

The benchmark 10-year note yield last traded at 4.62%.

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China hopes to ‘properly manage differences’ with the U.S. on trade

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U.S. President Donald Trump meets China’s President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

BEIJING — China is emphasizing its willingness to negotiate as increased tariffs on exports to the United States may soon become a reality.

U.S. President Donald Trump said this week he may increase duties on Chinese goods by 10% as soon as Feb. 1. The White House on Monday also announced plans to investigate China over actions harmful to U.S. commerce.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has always maintained communication with “relevant” U.S. authorities on economy and trade, ministry spokesperson He Yadong said in response on Thursday.

“The Chinese side hopes that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, both sides will … strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation and promote the stable and healthy development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations,” He added during a weekly press conference. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

Trump said last week that he spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the phone about TikTok and trade. The Chinese side’s readout did not mention the social media app, but said Xi called for cooperation and cast the two countries’ economic ties as mutually beneficial.

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“Tariffs are not conducive to China or the U.S., or the entire world,” commerce spokesperson He said.

“China is willing to work with the U.S. to push bilateral economic and trade relations in a stable, healthy and sustainable direction,” He said, noting that was on the basis of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.”

The comments echoed those of China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Tuesday.

“We stand ready to maintain communication with the U.S., properly handle differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation and pursue a steady, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. relationship,” Mao said when asked about negotiations over tariffs.

“China will also firmly defend its own interests,” she said. That’s according to an official English-language transcript.

Even if 10% tariffs are imposed on China, that’s far lower than the original 60% that Trump had floated during his campaign.

Hours after his inauguration on Monday, Trump reiterated plans for 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, without specifying a figure for China. He said only that increased duties might be used to force Beijing-based ByteDance to sell social media app TikTok, whose future availability in the U.S. is now in question.

When asked about TikTok on Thursday, Chinese commerce spokesperson He said China “hopes the U.S. side will listen more to the voices of businesses and the public,” and “do more things that are conducive to economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States and the well-being of the people.”

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