The stock market is on a volatile ride this week in part because of the tariff back-and-forth from the Trump administration and various countries. But Third Point’s Daniel Loeb believes investors should relax. The hedge fund manager believes stocks will benefit from the macro environment going forward, even with periods of volatility brought on by President Donald Trump’s unique policymaking. “Overall, Third Point expects the environment for investing in equities to continue to be favourable, with the caveat that there will likely be periodic dislocations caused by the unconventional approach of this Administration in conveying and enacting policy that affects markets and the economy,” Loeb wrote in his latest investor letter dated Tuesday. The famed investor noted it is important to use critical thinking amid the constant flow of news headlines and policy declarations from the Trump administration. He cited the recent volatility surrounding DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence competitor out of China, as an example of irrationality in the markets. The investor said he believes Trump’s recently announced tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China will be less impactful than the headlines implied. China has retaliated with additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10. Loeb’s comments struck a more optimistic tone than some other high-profile investors, who have warned about the negative effects from Trump’s tariff and immigration policies. Point72′s Steve Cohen said some of Trump’s policies will stoke inflationary pressures and hinder consumer spending, and he expects the broader market to get bumpy in the second half of the year. Paul Tudor Jones said Monday he believes the financial markets are far less stable entering Trump’s second term than they were in 2017, leaving no room for policy mistakes. Third Point’s flagship fund returned 9.2% in the fourth quarter, bringing its 2024 gains to 24.2%. The performance outpaced the S & P 500’s 23.3% gain last year. “The Investment Manager remains optimistic about the sectors that will benefit from certain of these policies, as well as an increase in M & A and other corporate activity which supports its event-driven framework.” Loeb wrote. The top performer in his portfolio in the fourth quarter included Amazon , Tesla , LPL Financial Holdings and Apollo Global Management , Loeb said.
Alibaba is back in the spotlight — with U.S.-traded shares soaring nearly 70% so far in 2025 — as a favored play on Chinese artificial intelligence. The company said Thursday its AI-related product revenue grew by triple digits for a sixth-straight quarter in the period ended December. Its Qwen AI model has proven itself a capable rival to DeepSeek , along with winning a deal for iPhones sold in China . Founder Jack Ma, once politically sidelined, made his latest public reappearance on Feb. 17 — with a front-row seat at a rare meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping held with entrepreneurs , including DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. Several analysts think Alibaba’s gains will continue, with Jefferies setting a $156 price target as of Feb. 20. That’s upside of more than 8% from Friday’s close of $143.75. UBS equity strategists on Thursday said they have switched out PDD for Alibaba in a model portfolio “given its exposure to AI and quant factors.” Remember how just several months ago the Temu parent had a larger market cap , raising concerns that Alibaba was struggling to compete on its core e-commerce business? Taobao and Tmall Group saw sales rise 5% in the latest quarter. As excited as many investors are about AI opportunities in China, crowding into related stocks has only picked up by 0.02 so far this year on UBS’s scoring system. That’s far below the increase of 0.2 in the crowding score for U.S. AI-related names over the last two years, UBS said. Alibaba had the highest crowding score among large Chinese internet technology names, the report said. “Our Quants team’s analysis previously suggested that stocks with reasonable but improving crowding have seen the most near-term outperformance.” Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index hit a three-year high Friday with China Unicom, Lenovo and Alibaba’s locally traded shares leading gains. “Should investors rotate from Alibaba to the AI trade laggers (i.e. Tencent and Baidu)? Not for now,” JPMorgan internet analyst Alex Yao wrote in a Feb. 17 note. “We think both Tencent and Baidu’s share prices could be driven by AI development in different ways with different risks.” U.S.-listed shares of Baidu are up by about 8% for the year so far, despite the company sharing on Feb. 18 that its AI Cloud revenue rose 26% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. Hong Kong-traded shares of Tencent , which has yet to report earnings for the period, have risen by about 24% for the year so far. JPMorgan is neutral on Baidu, but overweight on Tencent and Alibaba. The firm has a price target of $125 on Alibaba shares, suggesting a 13% decline from Friday’s close. At least four other major investment firms have a buy rating on Alibaba. But Morgan Stanley is notably more cautious with an equal-weight rating and a price target of $100. That would imply a drop of 30% from Friday’s close. The firm pointed out that Alibaba’s capital expenditures were 11% of revenue in the latest quarter, versus 3% in the prior quarter — a potential weight on future margins that management warned about. Morgan Stanley also highlighted risks such as weaker consumption and a slower pace of enterprise digitalization. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart,Costco,Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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Investors may want to reducetheir exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.
Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.
“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”
She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.
The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.
Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.
“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”
She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.
“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.
ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.
“If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.