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Inflation: March CPI up as Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts

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Inflation ticked up again in March compared with the year before — in yet another sign that the economy doesn’t need high interest rates to come down any time soon.

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed prices rose 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 percent annual figure notched in February. Prices also rose 0.4 percent between February and March.

The result: The Federal Reserve is very unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months. Officials have been looking for a bit more assurance that inflation is steadily falling before deciding it’s time to trim borrowing costs. But since the start of the year, the data has brought unwanted surprises, with economists and the markets now expecting no cuts until later in 2024.

The Fed “is nowhere near where they’re going to need to be,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “March would not give anyone any confidence.”

All of the major stock indexes closed in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1 percent.

A delayed timeline for rate cuts could also collide with November’s presidential election. The Fed works hard to distance itself from politics, but central bankers are bound by their calendar. Wednesday’s report dashed expectations for an initial cut in June. And that leaves future moves to the Fed’s meetings in July, September and the first week of November — the height of election season, when Republicans and Democrats are racing to leverage the economy in their appeals to voters.

Speaking to reporters, President Biden touted his administration’s moves to lower costs for Americans, and he stood by earlier predictions that there would be a rate cut by the end of the year.

But “this may delay it a month or so,” Biden said. “I’m not sure of that. We don’t know what the Fed is going to do for certain.”

The main drivers of inflation — housing and energy costs — told a familiar story in March, and together made up more than half of the month-to-month increase for all of the items that go into the consumer price index. Rent costs rose 0.4 percent in March, a slight improvement from February. But they are still up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago. The energy index rose 1.1 percent in March, down from the 2.3 percent notched in February, but still up 2.1 percent over last year. Costs for car insurance also contributed to the hot report.

The Fed entered the year bolstered by six months of encouraging data — and notable progress since inflation soared to 40-year highs in the middle of 2022. For much of last year, healing supply chains helped ease prices for all kinds of goods, from couches to electronics and more. Gas prices also cooled off dramatically, after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets. Put together, the progress on goods and energy costs helped bring inflation way down from a peak of 9.1 percent. And going into this year, the hope was the trend would continue.

But prices went in the other direction in January, February and now March, coming in hotter than expected and disrupting the Fed’s remarkable streak of welcome news. Economists say that’s partly because there isn’t much relief coming from goods or energy prices anymore. And in the meantime, a thornier inflation category — stemming from services like hospitality, leisure and health care — hasn’t had a major breakthrough.

Policymakers will splice the report for narrower readings that help them gain a sharper sense of how inflation is pulsing through the economy. For example, a key measure that strips out more volatile categories like food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, as it did for the two previous months. That won’t offer much comfort to officials in light of the services trend.

Similarly, officials like to compare data month to month — instead of year to year — since the economy can change so quickly. There, too, the Fed saw muted progress, with prices rising at the same rate in March as they did in February.

The central bank has pushed interest rates to their highest level in 23 years to combat inflation, and officials said before this latest report that they expect to cut rates three times this year.

So far, the inflation numbers haven’t signaled any urgency to bring rates back down, though.

Still, Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning think tank, said there’s a disconnect between the parts of the economy that are driving inflation and the parts the Fed is trying to tame through high rates. For example, car insurance claims don’t go down if the Fed keeps rates high, Owens said. Energy costs are often tied to events around the world.

“None of these things are remotely in the realm of things that are impacted through demand destruction,” Owens said. “I think if anything, this was not good news for those of us who want to see rate cuts sooner, but I think that’s unfortunate and misguided.”

At a news conference last month, at the end of the Fed’s March policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said the task of getting inflation down to normal levels was always going to involve “some bumps.” Meeting minutes released Wednesday also showed that some officials noted that the rise in inflation from the beginning of the year “had been relatively broad based, and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations.”

But financial markets are also wary that the uncertainty could interfere with cuts this year. Stocks dropped last week after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that while he has cuts in his forecast, that could change if progress stalls.

“That would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all,” he said.

Over the past few years, inflation has been driven by different factors. More recently, housing costs have kept the rate high. Plenty of economists argue that the official statistics in the consumer price index are delayed and aren’t accounting for real-time measures that show rents falling in many places. But policymakers are still unsure why the shift hasn’t shown up yet. And the longer the shift takes, the harder it will be to wrestle overall inflation down.

“I bought that argument for the first year,” Holtz-Eakin said. “But at some point, it actually has to change.”

All of these factors pushed the Fed to raise borrowing costs after inflation spiked. That’s meant to slow the economy by making it more expensive to get a mortgage, take out a car loan or grow a business. And while practically every economist expected that all-out effort to tip the economy into a recession, the opposite has happened, with job growth and consumer spending holding strong.

But it hasn’t returned all the way to normal, and Fed officials are quick to caution that victory isn’t guaranteed. The Fed’s target is to get inflation to 2 percent, using its preferred inflation measure. That metric is different from the one released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, and it clocked in at 2.5 percent in February compared with the year before.

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You have options if you can’t pay your taxes by April 15

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Fotostorm | E+ | Getty Images

The tax deadline is days away — and the IRS is urging taxpayers to file returns on time and “pay as much as they can.”

However, if you can’t cover your total tax balance, there are options for the remaining taxes owed, according to the agency.

For most tax filers, April 15 is the due date for federal returns and taxes. But your federal deadline could be later if your state or county was impacted by a natural disaster.

If you are in the military stationed abroad or are in a combat zone during the tax filing season, you may qualify for certain automatic extensions related to the filing and paying of your federal income taxes.

Additionally, those living and working abroad also have extra time to file. 

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If you’re missing tax forms or need more time, You can file a tax extension by April 15, which pushes the federal filing deadline to Oct. 15.  

But “it’s an extension to file, not an extension to pay,” said Jo Anna Fellon, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ.

File by April 15 and ‘pay what you can’

If you can’t cover your balance by April 15, you should still file your return to avoid a higher IRS penalty, experts say.  

The failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, capped at 25%.

By comparison, the failure-to-pay penalty is 0.5% of taxes owed per month, limited to 25%. Both penalties incur interest, which is currently 7% for individuals.

File on time and pay what you can.

Misty Erickson

Tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals

“File on time and pay what you can,” said Misty Erickson, tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals. “You’re going to reduce penalties and interest.” 

Don’t panic if you can’t cover the full balance by April 15 because you may have payment options, she said.

“The IRS wants to work with you,” Erickson added.

Options if you can’t pay your taxes

“Most individual taxpayers can qualify for a payment plan,” the IRS said in a recent news release.

The “quickest and easiest way” to sign up is by using the online payment agreement, which may include a setup fee, according to the agency.

These payment options include:

  • Short-term payment plan: This may be available if you owe less than $100,000 including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.
  • Long-term payment plan: You’ll have this option if your balance is less than $50,000 including tax, penalties and interest. The monthly payment timeline is up to the IRS “collection statute,” which is typically 10 years.  

The agency has recently revamped payment plans, to make the program “easier and more accessible.”    

Build emergency and retirement savings at the same time

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Regulated finance needs to build trust with Gen Z

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Parents want schools to step up in teaching kids financial literacy

Misinformation and lack of trust in traditional institutions runs rampant in our society.

The regulated financial sector is no different, particularly among young people. Roughly 38% of Gen Zers get financial information from YouTube, and 33% from TikTok, according to a recent Schwab survey.

As a former regulator and author of kids’ books about money, I am truly horrified by the toxic advice they are getting from these unqualified “finfluencers” — advice which, if followed, could cause lasting damage to their financial futures.

Most troubling are finfluencers who encourage young people to borrow. A central theme is that “chumps” earn money by working hard and that rich people make money with debt. They supposedly get rich by borrowing large sums and investing the cash in assets they expect to increase in value or produce income which can cover their loans and also net a tidy profit.

Of course, the finfluencers can be a little vague about how the average person can find these wondrous investments that will pay off their debt for them. Volatile, risky investments — tech stocks, crypto, precious metals, commercial real estate — are commonly mentioned.

‘The road to quick ruin’ for inexperienced investors

Contrary to their assertions, these finfluencers are not peddling anything new or revelatory. It’s simply borrowing to speculate.

For centuries, that strategy has been pursued by inexperienced investors as the path to quick riches, when in reality, it’s the road to quick ruin. There is always “smart money” on the other side of their transactions, ready to take advantage of them. For young people just starting out, with limited incomes and tight budgets, it’s the last thing they should be doing with their precious cash.

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Here’s a look at more stories on how to manage, grow and protect your money for the years ahead.

Debt glorification is not the only bad advice being peddled on the internet.

You can find finfluencers advising against diversified, low fee stock funds in favor of active trading (without disclosing research consistently showing active trading’s inferior returns). Or ones that discourage individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans as savings vehicles in favor of real estate or business startups (without mentioning lost tax benefits as well as the heavy costs and expertise needed to manage real estate or high failure rates among young companies).

Some encourage making minimum payments on credit cards to free up money for speculative investments (without mentioning the hefty interest costs of carrying credit card balances which compound daily).

Why are so many young people turning to these unqualified social media personalities for help in managing their money instead of regulated and trained finance professionals?

One reason: the finfluencers make their advice entertaining. It may be wrong, but it’s short and punchy. Materials provided by regulated financial service providers can sometimes be dry and technical.

Where to get trustworthy money advice

Xavier Lorenzo | Moment | Getty Images

They may be boring, but regulated institutions are still the best resource for young people to get basic, free information.

FDIC-insured banks can explain to them how to open checking and savings accounts and avoid unnecessary fees. Any major brokerage firm can walk through how to set up a retirement saving account. It’s part of their function to explain their products and services, and they have regulators overseeing how they do it.

In addition, regulators themselves offer educational resources directly to the public. For young adults, one of the most widely used is Money Smart, offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — an agency I once proudly chaired.

There are also many excellent regulated and certified financial planners. However, most young people will not have the budget to pay for financial advice. 

They don’t have to if they just keep it simple: set a budget, stick to it, save regularly, and start investing for retirement early in a low-fee, well-diversified stock index fund. They should minimize their use of financial products and services. The more accounts and credit cards they use, the harder it will be to keep track of their money.

Above all, they should ignore unqualified “finfluencers.” 

Check their credentials. Question their motives. Most are probably trying to build ad revenue or sell financial products. In the case of celebrities, find out who’s paying them (because most likely, someone is).

Regulated finance needs to reclaim its status as a more trustworthy source for advice. The best way to do that is, well, provide good advice. Every time a young adult is burnt by surprise bank fees, seduced into over borrowing by a misleading credit card offer, or told to put their retirement savings into a high fee, underperforming fund, they lose trust.

I know regulation and oversight are out of favor these days. But we need a way to keep out the bad actors, and practices to protect young people new to the financial world. It’s important to their financial futures and the future of the industry as well.

Sheila Bair is former Chair of the FDIC, author of the Money Tales book series, and the upcoming “How Not to Lose $1 Million” for teens. She is a member of CNBC’s Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board.

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Is this a good time to buy gold? Experts weigh in

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Tariff worries send gold to record high

Gold is often considered a safe-haven investment because it typically acts as a hedge in times of political and financial uncertainty. Prices are currently soaring amid fears of a global trade war and its potential to push the U.S. economy into recession.

However, some analysts think gold prices may have peaked.

“We’re probably close to maximum optimism on gold at this point,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Investors who chase returns may find themselves regretting it later.

“It’s so overbought,” Samana said. “Buying gold right now, you’re coming a little late to the party. It doesn’t mean it’s over, but you’re not early.”

So far this year, gold prices have notched more than a dozen record highs and are currently trading above $3,000.

Gold prices pop on tariff escalation

Gold futures prices were up about 21% year-to-date as of noon ET on Friday and 30% higher compared to the price a year ago. Prices have popped about 7% this week alone, on pace for the best week since March 2020.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is down about 11% in 2025 and up about 1% in the past year.

President Donald Trump imposed steep country-specific tariffs on Wednesday, but ultimately delayed them for 90 days. However, a trade war between the U.S. and China — our third-largest trade partner — escalated as each nation engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff increase.

As of Friday morning, the U.S. had put a 145% tariff on imports from China, which hit back with a 125% levy on U.S. goods.

While some analysts think gold prices are close to topping out, others think there’s room to run.

“Even though gold prices are at an all-time high, the reality is that in the next couple of years it could accelerate,” said Jordan Roy-Byrne, founder of The Daily Gold, an online resource for gold, silver and mining stocks.

How to invest in gold

Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Experts often recommend getting investment exposure to gold through an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of physical gold, as part of a well-diversified portfolio, rather than buying actual gold coins or bars.

“For most [investors], I would say a gold bullion-backed ETF makes the most sense,” Samana said. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are the two largest gold ETFs, according to ETF.com.

Financial advisors generally recommend limiting gold exposure to the low-single-digit percentage, perhaps up to 3% or so, of one’s overall portfolio.

Gold tends to perform “okay” when investors are worried about inflation or stagflation, Samana said — fears sparked by the Trump administration’s recent tariff policies. However, it “rarely does well” during recessions, which is when bonds “really show their value,” he said.

Buying physical gold

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“Amidst the recent stock market turbulence, we’re seeing renewed interest in tangible, physical assets that exist outside traditional financial structures,” according to Tim Schmidt, the founder of Gold IRA Custodians, an online resource for buying gold.

But buying physical gold during uncertain times may not make much sense for investors unless they are extremely anxious the financial system might implode — at which point physical gold can theoretically help people barter for goods and services, Samana said.

Buying gold jewelry

Fine jewelry is a different story. The baseline value of gold jewelry is tied to its precious metal content, according to Schmidt. Higher-karat pieces, or 18K and up, contain more precious metal and typically retain value better, though they may be less durable for everyday wear.

“High-quality jewelry … can offer both personal enjoyment and potential financial benefits when selected carefully,” he said.

Craftsmanship and artistry also play a key role in pieces that could appreciate over time, particularly with hallmarks from top brands, such as Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Tiffany & Co. 

Buying gold right now, you’re coming a little late to the party. It doesn’t mean it’s over, but you’re not early.

Sameer Samana

head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute

One year ago, Tiffany’s chief executive officer Anthony Ledru said high-quality jewelry may even be considered “recession proof.”

“People have been investing in jewelry since ancient times,” Schmidt said. “There’s something psychologically reassuring about holding an investment in your hand, especially during periods when markets seem disconnected from economic realities.”

What financial advisors say about gold

Gold prices extended their gains on Wednesday, following a record high in the previous session, as investors sought the comfort of the safe-haven metal in anticipation of the potential impact of U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“We have clients who currently hold positions in gold. These are typically individuals with substantial assets across various industries and sectors, using gold as a means of portfolio diversification and balance,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California.

Even in the face of heightened uncertainty largely due to tariff-induced market swings, “we are not proactively recommending that clients add to their gold positions at this time,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. “Instead, we suggest maintaining higher cash reserves, fully funding emergency savings, and reallocating as needed based on evolving financial goals.”

Lee Baker, a CFP based in Atlanta, says more clients are worried that tariffs will hinder economic growth and have recently been asking about alternative investments in gold. “Often during times of chaos there is a ‘flight to safety,’ so in a time like this we are seeing some movement to gold as a part of the fear trade.”

According to Baker, who is the founder, owner and president of Apex Financial Services and a member of CNBC’s FA Council, “incorporating gold, and other commodities, is a good idea in general.”

He recommends adding gold ETFs to client portfolios, although “there have been occasions where we have utilized gold stocks in the form of investing in mining companies or gold-related company mutual funds.”

As for physical gold, “if it makes you feel good to go grab an ounce at Costco or wherever, do it,” he said. But with that comes the additional responsibility and costs of storing, insuring and safekeeping those holdings, he added.

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