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Inflation: March CPI up as Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts

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Inflation ticked up again in March compared with the year before — in yet another sign that the economy doesn’t need high interest rates to come down any time soon.

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed prices rose 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 percent annual figure notched in February. Prices also rose 0.4 percent between February and March.

The result: The Federal Reserve is very unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months. Officials have been looking for a bit more assurance that inflation is steadily falling before deciding it’s time to trim borrowing costs. But since the start of the year, the data has brought unwanted surprises, with economists and the markets now expecting no cuts until later in 2024.

The Fed “is nowhere near where they’re going to need to be,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “March would not give anyone any confidence.”

All of the major stock indexes closed in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1 percent.

A delayed timeline for rate cuts could also collide with November’s presidential election. The Fed works hard to distance itself from politics, but central bankers are bound by their calendar. Wednesday’s report dashed expectations for an initial cut in June. And that leaves future moves to the Fed’s meetings in July, September and the first week of November — the height of election season, when Republicans and Democrats are racing to leverage the economy in their appeals to voters.

Speaking to reporters, President Biden touted his administration’s moves to lower costs for Americans, and he stood by earlier predictions that there would be a rate cut by the end of the year.

But “this may delay it a month or so,” Biden said. “I’m not sure of that. We don’t know what the Fed is going to do for certain.”

The main drivers of inflation — housing and energy costs — told a familiar story in March, and together made up more than half of the month-to-month increase for all of the items that go into the consumer price index. Rent costs rose 0.4 percent in March, a slight improvement from February. But they are still up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago. The energy index rose 1.1 percent in March, down from the 2.3 percent notched in February, but still up 2.1 percent over last year. Costs for car insurance also contributed to the hot report.

The Fed entered the year bolstered by six months of encouraging data — and notable progress since inflation soared to 40-year highs in the middle of 2022. For much of last year, healing supply chains helped ease prices for all kinds of goods, from couches to electronics and more. Gas prices also cooled off dramatically, after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets. Put together, the progress on goods and energy costs helped bring inflation way down from a peak of 9.1 percent. And going into this year, the hope was the trend would continue.

But prices went in the other direction in January, February and now March, coming in hotter than expected and disrupting the Fed’s remarkable streak of welcome news. Economists say that’s partly because there isn’t much relief coming from goods or energy prices anymore. And in the meantime, a thornier inflation category — stemming from services like hospitality, leisure and health care — hasn’t had a major breakthrough.

Policymakers will splice the report for narrower readings that help them gain a sharper sense of how inflation is pulsing through the economy. For example, a key measure that strips out more volatile categories like food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, as it did for the two previous months. That won’t offer much comfort to officials in light of the services trend.

Similarly, officials like to compare data month to month — instead of year to year — since the economy can change so quickly. There, too, the Fed saw muted progress, with prices rising at the same rate in March as they did in February.

The central bank has pushed interest rates to their highest level in 23 years to combat inflation, and officials said before this latest report that they expect to cut rates three times this year.

So far, the inflation numbers haven’t signaled any urgency to bring rates back down, though.

Still, Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning think tank, said there’s a disconnect between the parts of the economy that are driving inflation and the parts the Fed is trying to tame through high rates. For example, car insurance claims don’t go down if the Fed keeps rates high, Owens said. Energy costs are often tied to events around the world.

“None of these things are remotely in the realm of things that are impacted through demand destruction,” Owens said. “I think if anything, this was not good news for those of us who want to see rate cuts sooner, but I think that’s unfortunate and misguided.”

At a news conference last month, at the end of the Fed’s March policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said the task of getting inflation down to normal levels was always going to involve “some bumps.” Meeting minutes released Wednesday also showed that some officials noted that the rise in inflation from the beginning of the year “had been relatively broad based, and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations.”

But financial markets are also wary that the uncertainty could interfere with cuts this year. Stocks dropped last week after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that while he has cuts in his forecast, that could change if progress stalls.

“That would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all,” he said.

Over the past few years, inflation has been driven by different factors. More recently, housing costs have kept the rate high. Plenty of economists argue that the official statistics in the consumer price index are delayed and aren’t accounting for real-time measures that show rents falling in many places. But policymakers are still unsure why the shift hasn’t shown up yet. And the longer the shift takes, the harder it will be to wrestle overall inflation down.

“I bought that argument for the first year,” Holtz-Eakin said. “But at some point, it actually has to change.”

All of these factors pushed the Fed to raise borrowing costs after inflation spiked. That’s meant to slow the economy by making it more expensive to get a mortgage, take out a car loan or grow a business. And while practically every economist expected that all-out effort to tip the economy into a recession, the opposite has happened, with job growth and consumer spending holding strong.

But it hasn’t returned all the way to normal, and Fed officials are quick to caution that victory isn’t guaranteed. The Fed’s target is to get inflation to 2 percent, using its preferred inflation measure. That metric is different from the one released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, and it clocked in at 2.5 percent in February compared with the year before.

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Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Izusek | E+ | Getty Images

Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

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Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

New AARP CEO: 'Our goal is to hold elected officials accountable' to Americans 50 and over

Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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