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Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing danger again

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Eggs are displayed for sale in a Manhattan grocery store on Feb. 25, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near sure-fire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market.

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in trading Wednesday. In market lingo, that’s known as an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s had a sterling prediction record over a 12- to 18-month timeframe for downturns going back decades.

In fact, the New York Fed considers it such a reliable indicator that it offers monthly updates on the relationship along with percentage odds on a recession occurring over the next 12 months.

At the end of January, when the 10-year yield was about 0.31 percentage point clear of the 3-month, the probability was just 23%. However, that is almost certain to change as the relationship has shifted dramatically in February.

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10-year 3-month curve

“This is what one would expect if investors are adopting a much more risk-averse attitude set of behavior due to a growth scare, which one periodically sees late in business cycles,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “It’s not clear yet whether it’s more noise or it’s a signal that we’re going to see a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity.”

Though markets more closely follow the relationship between the 10- and 2-year notes, the Fed prefers measuring against the 3-month as it is more sensitive to movements in the central bank’s federal funds rate. The 10-year/2-year spread has held modestly positive, though it also has flattened considerably in recent weeks.

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10-year 2-year yield curve

To be sure, yield curve inversions have had a strong but not perfect forecasting history. In fact, the previous inversion happened in October 2022, and there’s still been no recession 2½ years later.

So while there’s no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around, investors worry that expected growth from an ambitious agenda under President Donald Trump may not happen.

Economic obstacles arising

The 10-year yield soared following the Nov. 5, 2024 presidential election, building on gains that began when Trump moved higher in the polls in September and peaking about a week before the Jan. 20 inauguration. That would normally be a tell-tale sign of investors expecting more growth, though some market pros saw it also as an expression of worries over inflation and the extra yield investors were demanding from government paper amid a mounting debt and deficit issue for the U.S. government.

Since Trump took office last month, yields have tumbled. The 10-year has fallen about some 32 basis points, or 0.32 percentage point, since the inauguration as investors worry that Trump’s tariff-focused trade agenda could spike inflation and slow growth. The benchmark yield is now essentially unchanged from Election Day.

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10-year yield

“There are quite a number of little potholes in the roadway that we really need to navigate around,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “What’s happening is all the uncertainty around the tariffs in particular is putting a very high-powered magnifying glass over all those cracks. People are starting to perk up and pay attention to this now.”

Recent sentiment surveys have reflected consumer and investor angst over prospects that growth could slow as inflation perks up just as it appeared to be easing.

In the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, respondents put their longer-term view on inflation, over the next five years, at its highest level since 1995. On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its forward-looking expectations index had sunk back down to levels consistent with recession in February.

Still, most of the “hard” economic data such as consumer and labor market indicators have held positive even in the face of downbeat sentiment.

A recession is unlikely and disinflation is likely toward year-end, says BNY Wealth’s Alicia Levine

“We are not looking for a recession,” Porcelli said. “We don’t expect one. We do, however, expect softer economic activity in the coming year.”

Markets are coming around to the same view of weaker activity as well.

In response, traders are now pricing in at least a half percentage point of interest rate cuts this year from the Fed, an implication that the central bank will ease as growth slows, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of futures prices. The bond market smells “recession in the air,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

However, Rupkey also said he’s not sure whether a recession will actually happen, since the labor market isn’t yet signaling that one is coming.

The yield curve inversion “is a pure play on the economy being not as strong as people thought it was going to be at the beginning of the Trump administration,” he said. “Whether or not we’re forecasting a full-blown recession, I don’t know. You need job losses for a recession, so we’re missing one key point of the data.”

Economics

‘He should bring them down’

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U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Win McNamee | Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday lobbed his latest criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the White House’s discontent for the economic policy leader hits a fever pitch.

During a Friday afternoon question-and-answer session with reporters, Trump pointed to examples of prices going down.

“If we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too,” Trump said. “He should bring them down.”

Trump has long argued that the Fed, which sets monetary policy in the U.S., should cut down interest rates. His latest comments come as the White House has ratcheted up its attacks on Powell in recent days.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Friday that Trump and his team are assessing whether they can remove the Fed chair. Powell has said previously that he cannot be fired under law and intends to serve through the end of his term as chair in May 2026.

“The president and his team will continue to study that matter,” Hassett said at the White House after a reporter questioned if firing Powell “is an option in a way that it wasn’t before,” according to Reuters.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” His post included the nickname of “Too Late” for Powell, a continuation of Trump’s habit of giving satirical titles to political rivals.

His use of the word “termination” raised questions around if Trump was referring to Powell’s potential removal from his post ahead of schedule. Hassett said on Friday the administration will look at if there’s “new legal analysis” that would allow for Powell’s firing.

Powell appeared to irk Trump after saying Wednesday that the president’s contentious tariff plan could drive up inflation in the near-term and create challenges for the central bank in managing goals of high employment rates and price stability. Powell said Trump’s levies — many of which are currently on pause — are “likely to move us further away from our goals.”

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Powell also said that the Fed was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

The Federal Open Market Committee has its borrowing rate currently targeted in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, where it has sat since December. Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 90% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady again at its policy meeting next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

As Trump’s team has scaled up criticisms, some Democrats have gone on defense. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned on Thursday that a president firing the Fed chief would be dire for U.S. financial markets.

“Understand this: If Chairman Powell can be fired by the president of the United States, it will crash markets in the United States,” Warren said on CNBC.

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China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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Economics

Donald Trump’s approval rating is dropping

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EVEN WHEN Donald Trump does something well, he exaggerates. He won the popular vote last November for the first time in three tries, by a 1.5 point margin. “The mandate was massive,” he told Time. In fact it was the slimmest margin since 2000, but it was an improvement on Mr Trump’s two previous popular-vote losses, by 2.1 points in 2016 and 4.5 points in 2020. (He was elected in 2016 through the vagaries of the Electoral College.)

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